Adam Koffler's Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet (2026)

August 30, 2026

Adam Koffler's fantasy football cheat sheet and draft guide for 2026. Koffler's targets, avoids, sleepers, and busts for 2026 fantasy football.

I've pumped out a ton of articles this offseason. Check them out; they're all here in one spot. In those articles, you'll find a deep dive on usually five or six players, explaining exactly why I'm targeting or avoiding them in 2026.

This "article" (if you can call it that) is different. This is a draft "cheat sheet." It has every player I'm actively targeting and avoiding this season. These are not rankings; instead, this list is the consensus top 150 ADP fantasy football rankings from multiple sources. What I did in the rightmost column is identify whether I'm targeting or avoiding that player this season.

After the table, you'll find a blurb for about 15 players I'm targeting and 15 players I'm avoiding in 2026 fantasy football, giving you a little more insight into the "why." Bring this to your draft, dominate your league-mates, and let me know about it afterwards. Happy drafting!

Consensus ADP Fantasy Football Rankings

Targets

James Cook III - RB, Buffalo Bills

Ty Johnson, the Bills' primary third-down, long-down-and-distance, and two-minute drill back, has missed most of camp with a knee injury. New OC in town, Pete Carmichael, has mentioned using Cook more in the passing game. Cook has also hinted at being used more as a receiver. Second in yards per carry and fourth in red zone rush attempts last season. Touchdown machine the last two years (32 total).

Kenneth Walker - RB, Kansas City

Chiefs haven't had a good running game in a long time, decided to go out and spend big money on Walker. Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy coaching combo gave rookie-year Kareem Hunt (2017) and rookie-year Clyde-Edwards Helaire (2020) massive workloads, including over four targets per game. Walker is looking explosive in camp and is being used a bunch in the screen game. Offense should revolve around him.

Brock Bowers - TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Dubbed a "football robot from heaven" by new head coach Klint Kubiak. The same head coach was responsible for Jaxon Smith-Njigba's league-leading 32.6% target share and 44.6% first-read target share last season. Finally healthy after a PCL injury put a damper on his 2025 season. Led all TEs in fantasy points per game as a rookie and was second in receiving yards market share, the two most predictive metrics for future fantasy production at the position.

Trey McBride - TE, Arizona Cardinals

Easily the top pass-catching option in Arizona. McBride averaged 80.3 receiving yards on 10.4 targets per game once Jacoby Brissett took over last season. That included a 34.3% first-read target share. In eight 11-on-11 sessions in Training Camp, McBride caught 33-of-43 targets. Nobody else had more than 35 targets. Mike LaFleur will look for ways to expand his route tree to include deeper and intermediate routes. Arizona figures to trail in a lot of games, which gives McBride the ultimate floor/ceiling combo.

Chris Olave - WR, New Orleans Saints

Rookie Jordyn Tyson is set to miss two months with a hamstring injury. It's unlikely he returns at full strength given his robust injury history. Olave's primary competition for targets will be Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele. Finished fifth in expected fantasy points per game last season (17.8) among wide receivers and gobbled up nearly 31% of his team's total receiving yards. Saints' offense should be even better in 2026 with continuity at play-caller (Kellen Moore) and quarterback (Tyler Shough).

Zay Flowers - WR, Baltimore Ravens

Finished as a top-10 wide receiver in 2025 despite Ravens throwing just 24.8 times per game. Elite target earner (27.7% target share) who accounted for 36.9% of the team's total receiving yards last season. New head coach Jesse Minter wants to get the ball into Flowers' hands as much as possible, while new OC Declan Doyle reportedly likes passing in obvious rushing situations.

D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears

Clear RB1 in an elite Ben Johnson-led offense. Backfield mate Kyle Monangai hasn't practiced in weeks with a knee injury. Johnson said this is the best he's seen Swift this time of year (dating back to their days in Detroit) and that he's "primed for a big year." Swift averaged 10th-best 4.87 yards per carry with a healthy 47.8% route participation rate last season.

Luther Burden III - WR, Chicago Bears

Historic rookie season from an efficiency standpoint (2.79 yards per route run). Limited routes, but if Ben Johnson is "buying stock," so am I. Comped to Amon-Ra St. Brown by his head coach due to work ethic and route-running prowess. Drafted by this regime in 2025, set to take over as WR1 with D.J. Moore now in Buffalo. Main wide receiver competition, Rome Odunze, has a career-best 1.72 yards per route run and a foot issue that could pop up at any time. Below-average defense and high-octane offense should prove fruitful for Burden in Year 2.

Bhayshul Tuten - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Toot, toot, all aboard! Chris Rodriguez has been a solid running back in the NFL, but he's never been a high-volume guy. His skill set is also somewhat limited to running the football. Tuten, on the other hand, excels in the passing game and has improved in pass protection. With LeQuint Allen on the shelf, Tuten could be in for a big snap share to begin the season. Liam Coen's offenses produced Bucky Irving in 2024 and Travis Etienne in 2025, so I'm buying an explosive Tuten in Year 2.

Parker Washington - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

After months of a hype train that could not be slowed down, Trevor Lawrence recently called it "his offense" when referring to Washington. There's no better vote of confidence than that. During the second half of the 2025 season, Washington was third in yards per route run (2.82) after Nacua and JSN and sixth in first downs per route run (0.121). He earned the trust of his quarterback over the last few years, and that's clearly carrying over into the 2026 season. The Jags have a crowded pass-catching corps on paper, but don't let that scare you off Washington; he's Coen's next Cooper Kupp/Chris Godwin. Draft him well ahead of ADP.

Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots

Per all accounts, Stevenson is the clear-cut RB1 for the Patriots heading into the 2026 season. TreVeyon Henderson is explosive, but Rhamondre appears to be the much better all-around back (including receiving and pass protection). Last season, Stevenson received a 70.3 PFF receiving grade and 69.9 pass blocking grade. Meanwhile, Henderson received a 58.3 receiving grade and 27.8 pass blocking grade. While expected to be ok, Henderson also enters the season with an ankle injury, clearing the way for Stevenson to dominate work early in the season against stiff competition (Seattle, Jacksonville, Buffalo).

Kenny Gainwell - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Gainwell got paid after accumulating over 1,000 scrimmage yards on 187 touches last season in Pittsburgh. Instead of re-signing Rachaad White for a couple million dollars, they prioritized Gainwell and gave him nearly $10 million guaranteed. That tells us he's likely to have a large role in the offense. He's catching a ton of passes in camp and has been seen on the field with Bucky Irving in two-back sets. Beat writer Greg Auman went as far as to say Gainwell could lead this team in receptions. Irving is reportedly healthier this season, but he was one of the most inefficient and least explosive running backs last season.

Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills

Now two years removed from a PCL injury. GM Brandon Beane said Kincaid was load-managed last season. Led all tight ends in targets, yards, and first downs per route run last season on 224 routes. It's likely his efficiency takes a hit with more snaps, but we'd welcome that over a highly efficient 40% snap share. Joe Brady is now head coach, and there's a new OC in town (Pete Carmichael). Kincaid's competition for targets isn't exactly stiff either. D.J. Moore declined last season, and Khalil Shakir hasn't practiced in a couple of weeks with an undisclosed injury. The ball has to go somewhere; why not an efficient target earner like Kincaid?

De'Zhaun Stribling - WR, San Francisco 49ers

The rookie wideout has looked incredible in training camp and throughout the preseason. He's by far the youngest (and probably healthiest) pass-catcher on the team. Christian McCaffrey is now on the wrong side of 30 and had 413 touches last season. George Kittle is coming off a torn Achilles, Mike Evans already has multiple injuries, and Deebo Samuel was a shell of himself last season. Stribling might not contribute to your fantasy team right away, but he's a good bet to work his way onto the field sooner rather than later. Sign me up for Kyle Shanahan's next Jauan Jennings in the late rounds.

Tyler Shough - QB, New Orleans Saints

Shough produced 20+ fantasy points in six of nine full games as a rookie last season. That came on just two passing touchdowns. The rest of his points came from solid rushing production. He scored three rushing touchdowns and had six or more carries in four of those games. The best part? Shough was sixth among quarterbacks in rush attempts inside the 10 last season (in just nine games). Shough has looked incredible in Training Camp, should have a better rushing attack with Travis Etienne, and has another year of chemistry with Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and play-caller Kellen Moore. Wheels up!

Avoids

CeeDee Lamb - WR, Dallas Cowboys

I like Lamb, but not as a first-round pick in the year 2026. Despite now sharing the field with another alpha in George Pickens, you still need to spend a top-12 pick on the guy this season. We're not getting any discount on Lamb despite the fact that his target share, first-read target share, and targets per route run all fell from 2024 to 2025. Now add in the fact that there's another wide receiver that's been shining in camp: Ryan Flournoy. Because of Flournoy's ascension, the Cowboys are likely to use a lot of 11 personnel in 2026, meaning all three receivers will be on the field at the same time. Another highly capable wide receiver is a bad thing for Lamb.

Justin Jefferson - WR, Minnesota Vikings

It's not the player; it's the ADP. 2025 was a disaster for Jefferson and the entire Vikings offense. That led them to bring in Kyler Murray this offseason. However, Murray has never thrown for more than 4,000 yards or 26 touchdowns in a single season. He's going to use his legs a bunch and improve more than Viking quarterbacks before him (Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold). There are also a lot of weapons at Murray's disposal this season. Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. Obviously, Jefferson will eat first, but I don't trust Murray to elevate him to another top-5 (or even top 10) season.

Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Hampton's rookie season was, well, pretty average. He fractured his ankle in Week 5, but even before then, the production didn't match the hype. He was on the field a lot, which helped propel his fantasy value, but outside of a big game vs. the Giants, the peripherals were somewhat disappointing. He caught 5+ balls in four of nine games, which is great; however, the Chargers brought in Keaton Mitchell this offseason and gave him $5 million guaranteed. He's going to play a role, especially in the passing game. Not to mention, Mike McDaniel talked about a committee approach, and beat writers are saying that Kimani Vidal is by far the team's best back in pass protection.

A.J. Brown - WR, New England Patriots

Last season, nobody on the Patriots recorded a 20% target share. Stefon Diggs, who's no longer there, came the closest. Kayshon Boutte is gone too, and they've been replaced by Brown and Romeo Doubs. Brown showed signs of slowing down last season. His target rate dropped from 28.4% in 2024 to 25.8% in 2025, and his yards per route run dropped from 3.16 to 2.14. Maybe it was injuries, or maybe he's declining. Either way, I don't want to pay a premium to find out.

Rashee Rice - WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Rice was in jail for a month this offseason while rehabbing an injury. There were some videos in camp that showed Rice looking a little slower than previously, which would make sense considering the circumstances. When he's been on the field, he's been pretty good; however, he's played just 11 games in the last two seasons. The Chiefs' offense wasn't good last season, especially their running game, so they prioritized Walker in free agency and paid him to be their feature back. That tells me this offense is evolving and could change from one that spams Rice with targets in 2026.

Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams

While still the clear-cut RB1, Williams' workload decreased a bit last season. He went from an 82.8% opportunity share in 2024 to just a 64.8% opportunity share in 2025. His expected fantasy points per game subsequently dropped from 17.0 (RB6) to 14.3 (RB14). This was mostly due to Blake Corum's emergence. Corum ranked first among running backs in EPA per rush attempt last season and was more explosive than Williams. Williams' percentage of carries inside the 10 decreased from 85% in 2024 to just 65% in 2025. Corum has finally earned McVay's trust, and we're hearing reports of a possible 50/50 backfield split in 2026.

Josh Jacobs - RB, Green Bay Packers

Jacobs was not good last season. He ranked 35th in yards per carry (3.97), 30th in yards after contact per attempt (2.18), and 38th in yards before contact per attempt (1.79). Despite that, he still averaged the 12th-most expected fantasy points per game (14.8) as a result of his massive workload. That workload should come down this season with MarShawn Lloyd healthy to start a season for the first time in his career. Not to mention Jacobs has legal issues hanging over his head and dealt with a groin injury throughout training camp.

Cam Skattebo - RB, New York Giants

After signing Najee Harris a couple of weeks ago, the Giants seem prepared to keep four capable running backs on the roster (Skattebo, Harris, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary). That doesn't bode well for Skattebo, especially coming off a devastating lower leg injury as a rookie. He's a high injury risk considering his style of play, and the Giants could decide to ease him back. Skattebo had a massive workload when healthy last season, but there's a new head coach (John Harbaugh) and a new OC (Matt Nagy) in town that could certainly mix things up in 2026.

Quinshon Judkins - RB, Cleveland Browns

I don't like drafting running backs on bad teams, with bad offensive lines, that come off the field in obvious passing situations. That's Judkins, unfortunately. He's a good runner but wasn't used much in the passing game as a rookie, and the Browns have Dylan Sampson to fill that role. The Browns have a bottom-five offensive line and are starting either Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders this season. That's not a recipe for offensive success, which will affect the number of scoring opportunities Judkins has in 2026.

Carnell Tate - WR, Tennessee Titans

After a lackluster rookie season, Ward doesn't appear to have taken a step forward, at least in camp and the preseason. Those might not be indicative of success in the regular season, but that's what we have to go off of. This is a new offense for Ward, which muddies things even more. Not to mention Tate has to compete for targets with Wan'Dale Robinson, who, believe it or not, has had back-to-back seasons of 140 targets. Brian Daboll, the Titans' new OC, was Robinson's head coach in New York for those years.

Brian Thomas Jr. - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Thomas Jr. was awesome as a rookie. He put up top-10 numbers and was drafted as such in his sophomore season. But things didn't come to fruition with Liam Coen at the helm. Instead, the Jags drafted Travis Hunter, elevated Parker Washington into a full-time role, and traded for Jakobi Meyers. That left BTJ in a more stagnant role in the offense. He battled injuries last season but was surpassed by Washington and Meyers in the pecking order. He's also reportedly being taken off the field for Hunter at times during camp. This is now Washington's offense, and the passing attack flows through him.

DK Metcalf - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Metcalf was the only game in town for the Steelers last season and still barely finished as a low-end WR2 in fantasy football. Now, add Michael Pittman Jr., a guy who has earned 100+ targets in each of the last five seasons, and rookie Germie Bernard to the mix. Metcalf was used as an outside-only receiver last season, which translated to a career-low 99 targets. At this point in his career, Aaron Rodgers is much more comfortable with short and intermediate throws, which favors Pittman. It certainly favored Gainwell last season. Fade Metcalf with the additions of Pittman Jr. and Bernard.

Alec Pierce - WR, Indianapolis Colts

Pierce is an awesome asset to a real-life NFL team, but to a fantasy team, not so much. Last season, he caught fewer than five balls in 12 of 15 games. He hit 15 fantasy points just five times (33% of his games). Yes, Pittman is now gone, but Pierce is still fighting multiple uphill battles to fantasy relevance in 2026. Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles, which could mean fewer downfield targets for Pierce. That's where he makes his money, unfortunately. Pierce himself is also coming off an ankle procedure this offseason, and he has barely practiced leading up to Week 1. The Colts also brought in Keenan Allen, so Pierce will be competing for targets with Allen, Downs, and Warren, all of whom can earn targets at a high clip. He's a "better in best ball" type guy in 2026.

Matthew Golden - WR, Green Bay Packers

The hype for Golden as a rookie last season was unwarranted, and frankly, I was part of the problem. Even with injuries, there were just too many weapons at Jordan Love's disposal. But even with the Packers down multiple pass-catchers at a time, Golden still wasn't able to earn targets at a high clip. That was his problem dating back to college, where he never earned greater than a 19% target share. Even with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks out of the picture, Golden is squarely the fourth option behind Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft.

More Fantasy Football Analysis