MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/23/2025)

July 23, 2025

Frank's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/23/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Alex Bregman, Nick Castellanos, Cody Bellinger, Cedric Mullins, Lawrence Butler, and Marcus Semien.

We have a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, including some afternoon matchups, but we'll focus on the night games for our home run props today. Today's hitters include hitters like Alex Bregman, Nick Castellanos, Cody Bellinger, Cedric Mullins, Lawrence Butler, and Marcus Semien. Each player I chose today has positive batter-vs-pitcher data in a favorable environment.

The strategy with targeting my home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on a risky market like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/23/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, July 23:

• Alex Bregman (+360)
• Nick Castellanos (+400)
• Cody Bellinger (+450)
• Cedric Mullins (+475)
• Lawrence Butler (+500)
• Marcus Semien (+550)

Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bregman has been impressive in his first year with the Red Sox, slashing .291/.369/.534 with 12 home runs in 252 plate appearances. The 31-year-old is set for an exploitable matchup against Jesus Luzardo and the Phillies tonight.

Alex Bregman comes up CLUTCH with a pinch-hit 3-run homer 😮 pic.twitter.com/H1yNreNLdx

— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2025

What I love about this spot is that Bregman punishes lefties, as highlighted by a 182 wRC+ this season (132 wRC+ against righties).

On top of that, we've seen Bregman have a lot of success vs Luzardo in his career, featuring two homers and a .502 xwOBA in 12 plate appearances.

We also have to acknowledge how Luzardo has been much worse against righties (.348 wOBA) than lefties (.225 wOBA) this season.

Add in the hitter-friendly environment at Citizens Bank Park, and you can see why Bregman looks like an appealing wager in this spot.

Nick Castellanos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We'll stay with the Red Sox-Phillies game by going with Castellanos for the next home run prop. The veteran outfielder currently carries a .270/.311/.427 slash with 12 home runs in 411 plate appearances.

We've seen Castellanos perform much better at home, featuring a 120 wRC+ with eight home runs (86 wRC+ with four homers on the road).

Additionally, Castellanos has shown a bit more power against righties (.167 ISO) compared to southpaws (.134 ISO).

Then you have to consider that Castellanos has had success against Lucas Giolito in his career, hitting two home runs and posting a .624 xSLG in 20 plate appearances.

When you combine each of these factors, you can see why Castellanos looks like a solid value at +400 odds.

Cody Bellinger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bellinger is another free agent signing performing well with his new team, as highlighted by a .285/.336/.508 slash with 18 home runs in 393 plate appearances.

3-for-3 with a home run through 5 innings

Have a night, Cody Bellinger! pic.twitter.com/Ub0T2dxqI6

— MLB (@MLB) July 23, 2025

This is a hitter who is swinging a hot bat of late, homering five times in his last seven games, including one last night and three on July 11th.

Tonight's matchup looks exploitable, as Chris Bassitt has had a tough time against lefties, featuring a .370 wOBA (.280 wOBA against righties).

On top of that, Bellinger has good numbers against Bassitt throughout his career, posting a .605 xSLG with one homer in 14 plate appearances.

With the way that Bellinger is swinging the bat lately, it's hard not to like the value on him keeping it rolling against a familiar pitcher that he's had success against. With that in mind, let's ride with Bellinger to go yard for the 19th time this season.

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Cedric Mullins OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Mullins is currently slashing .213/.294/.395 with 13 homers in 328 plate appearances. Despite these underwhelming numbers, I'm willing to take a shot on Mullins because of the long-shot price of +475 odds.

We've seen Mullins put up one homer in two plate appearances against Slade Cecconi. While this is obviously an extremely small sample, it's still worth noting that it's a hitter who has demonstrated the ability to go yard against tonight's pitcher.

We also have to acknowledge that Cecconi is a pitcher who has had issues with the longball, posting a 1.56 HR/9 and 12.3% barrel rate. This has been even worse against lefties with a 1.91 HR/9 (1.29 HR/9 vs righties).

Mullins looks like one of the better values among Orioles' hitters, so we'll take the plunge at this cost. Bet on the veteran to hit his 14th homer of the season in this spot.

Lawrence Butler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Butler is currently slashing .242/.315/.423 with 14 home runs in 426 plate appearances. This is a streaky hitter who can go on homer binges when he's rolling. Just think back to what he did in the second half of last season.

Lawrence Butler leadoff HR off deGrompic.twitter.com/CDBmRGKz0l

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) July 23, 2025

We just saw Butler go yard against one of the toughest pitchers in MLB in Jacob deGrom, so perhaps this is the start of a hot streak.

Despite the lefty-vs-lefty matchup vs Patrick Corbin, I like taking a shot because that gives us a discounted price at +500 odds. Corbin has failed to pitch six innings in four of his last six outings, so it's not like he goes that deep into the game.

Plus, Butler still has shown some pop against southpaws, as highlighted by a .195 ISO. Meanwhile, Corbin has actually had a tough time vs some lefties, including a 1.52 HR/9.

With that in mind, we'll ride with Butler to hit his 15th homer of the season in this matchup.

Marcus Semien OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Semien is currently slashing .230/.309/.370 with 13 home runs in 421 plate appearances. Even though these numbers are mediocre, I'm still willing to sprinkle on the veteran second baseman because of the long-shot +550 odds.

If we dig deeper into Semien's numbers, we see that this is a player who has found his groove. Since May 30th, Semien is slashing .293/.364/.534 with 10 homers in 198 plate appearances. This includes an elite 149 wRC+, so he's clearly on his game right now.

After a 16-game homerless drought, Marcus Semien has 6 HR and 15 RBI over his last 18 games.

When Marcus Semien woke up on May 30, he was slashing .173/.260/.224/.485 w/ 3 HR and 18 RBI in 56 games.

Since?

.293/.364/.534/.898 w/ 10 HR and 32 RBI in 45 games

— Jared Sandler (@JaredSandler) July 23, 2025

Additionally, the former Blue Jay has performed well against tonight's starter in lefty JP Sears. In 29 career plate appearances, Semien has a .599 xSLG with two homers.

It also helps that we've seen Sears struggle vs. righties all year long, featuring a .357 wOBA and 2.01 HR/9 (.278 wOBA, 1.01 HR/9 against lefties).

So here we have a red-hot hitter who has done well against tonight's pitcher, one who struggles against right-handed hitters. At +550 odds, this is the kind of longshot home run prop worth targeting.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.

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