Determining Draft Strategy in Fantasy Baseball Rotisserie vs. Points Leagues Using "Teams in a Vacuum" Concept

March 20, 2024

Does the difference in scoring systems for rotisserie vs. points leagues in fantasy baseball mean you should draft players in a different order? Glenn breaks it down using the "Teams in a Vacuum" (TIAV) concept.

What do the experts know? When it comes to rotisserie vs. points leagues, all the fantasy baseball podcasters discuss “drafting Player A in roto but Player B in points.”

Are rotisserie and points leagues really that different? Should you draft players in a different order depending on the scoring type?

To answer these questions, calculations are performed on a player basis for “players in a vacuum” analysis.

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Rotisserie vs. Points Leagues Settings for Fantasy Baseball

The standard settings in rotisserie leagues keep track of 10 categories:

• Batting -- runs, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average
• Pitching -- strikeouts, wins, saves, earned run average, (walks + hits)/number of innings pitched

Each team is awarded points depending on how their players finish in each category.  In a 12-team league, the best in each category is awarded 12 points, second place gets 11 points, etc.

The most common settings in points leagues award different points based on the category:

• Batting
  • Single = 1 point
  • Walk = 1 point
  • Double = 2 points
  • Triple = 3 points
  • Home Run = 4 points
  • Run = 1 point
  • Run batted in = 1 point
  • Stolen base = 1 point
• Pitching
  • Inning pitched = 1 point
  • Strikeout = 1 point
  • Win = 10 points
  • Save = 7 points

The categories are totaled for each team and multiplied by the corresponding category points.

Table 1 – 2023 Top-13 Drafted Players and Their Final Ranks

There are several observations from last year’s top players.

• Using last year’s first-round average draft picks, you had a 50% chance of drafting a player worthy of the first round
• Pitchers don’t finish near the top in either format
• Outfielders dominated last year’s top players

To compare how players finished in the two leagues, what if you calculated player totals on a league basis rather than a team basis?  For rotisserie scoring, you take the top-100 batters and the top-100 pitchers (which represents the same number as the non-bench players in a 12-team league) and award category points based on how each player finished in each category.  For points scoring, you take each player's season statistics and calculate their totals.

Table 2 – Comparison of First-Round Finishers

Table 2 shows there are similarities between the two scoring systems, but they are not the same. Batting average is not a consideration in points leagues. Other than home runs, multi-base hits are not considered in roto leagues. This can make a big difference in a player’s rank.

To give a contrasting example, Kyle Schwarber had an outstanding year in 2023, scoring 108 runs, 47 home runs, 104 RBI, and 126 walks, which resulted in a 12th-place finish in points leagues. Because walks are not considered in rotisserie and he had no stolen bases, Schwarber’s stellar performance only got a 64^th-place finish in roto leagues.

The last column in Table 2 summarizes the differences between the scoring systems concerning batters since they dominate the first round. If you throw out 2018 where the top-12 average draft positions finished in the top 12, roto and points leagues are 75% the same.

The website Statistica estimates that 12.5 million people play fantasy baseball. A quick calculation of the hundreds of public leagues over several fantasy baseball websites showed that leagues are split 70% roto/30% points.

The reason rotisserie is the dominant scoring system is due to the difficulty of tuning the parameters to make pitchers equal to batters in the points scoring system. Similar to defenses and kickers in fantasy football, awarding points for pitching statistics doesn’t translate as well as offensive statistics.

Table 3 – Top Pitcher Ranks

If Table 2 showed batters finish within the same round of each other 75% of the time, Table 3 shows the top pitchers do not match between the leagues 100% of the time. In my previous article, I stated that you should not consider drafting a starting pitcher before the third round.

In a points league, you wouldn’t dream of it. If you are drafting in a points league, grab the best nine or 10 batters before considering a pitcher.

The top drafting tip in fantasy football is know your league settings referring to standard scoring versus point-per-reception. This directive is even more important in fantasy baseball.

Rotisserie and points scoring produce different results. The rotisserie scoring system attempts to have a level playing field with an equal number of categories between batters and pitchers. The points-scoring system makes no such concession; pitchers are treated like second-class citizens. Because rotisserie scoring is dominant, do not trust the draft tool’s player rankings when in a points league draft. If pitchers pop up before the 10^th round, ignore them.

Are rotisserie and points leagues really that different? Between the two scoring systems, batters finish in the same round 75% of the time; pitchers finish rounds apart 100% of the time. Grab those batters first!

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