Pitchers With Fastball Velocity in The Tank - Potential Fantasy Baseball Risers

February 23, 2023

Jon searches for fantasy baseball starting pitcher breakouts, comparing average and max pitch velocities to see which pitchers have extra velocity in the tank.

One of the ways a pitcher can have a breakout season is by gaining velocity. We see this quite often. A pitcher will find a way to add velocity to their pitches (mainly their fastball), which makes that primary pitch a bit more effective and enhances their offspeed pitches as well by separating the two velocities even further.

Increased velocity is one of our favorite things to look for in Spring Training, so we will certainly be hearing a lot about that in the coming weeks. For good reason, there is surely a correlation between increased velocity and improved performance overall.

I wanted to go ahead and get in front of the curve here. I had this idea to go back to 2022 and compare every pitcher's average fastball velocity with their maximum fastball velocity. This will give us a list of pitchers that at the very least have the ability to throw the ball harder. Most of the names at the top of the list turn out to be pitchers who spent some time in the bullpen (David Peterson, for example, averaged 93.2 mph on his sinker last year, but ramped it up as high as 98.9 when he was in the bullpen), so we will be ignoring those names for the purposes of this study. Let's get into the names.

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JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates

I am trying my best to ignore one-off situations where there is a single data point well above the rest, and that's almost the case here with Brubaker. As you can see, he averaged just 93.1 miles per hour on the sinker. On May 17, however, he was feeling it. In the first inning, he uncorked a sinker at 98.5 mph to Willson Contreras. In that same inning, he threw a sinker to Ian Happ at 97 mph. Throughout the year, he threw five sinkers above 96 mph and 30 pitches above 95 mph.

I have already mentioned Brubaker as a potential improver given the great slider he has (it was top 10 in the league for starting pitchers at generating swinging strikes), so the fact that he could raise the sinker velocity a tick or two might help facilitate that.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

Kopech is a guy who has long had big-time velocity, but he seemingly reigned it a bit last year as he spent the full year in the rotation. Throughout the year, he uncorked 19 four-seam fastballs above 98 mph and reached 100.2 on May 22 in a fifth-inning pitch against Estevan Florial.

Something was going on for him in this start, as he averaged above 97 mph on the fastball that day - by far his highest output of the season. You can see the sheer inconsistency in his profile with that plot above, and that really has been Kopech's issue for most of his career.

Things are already off to a rocky start for Kopech as there are questions about his status for Opening Day after having knee surgery last year. Kopech is extremely risky, but he's very cheap this year and there is quite a bit of upside if his health breaks the right way for him this season.

Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

Rodon has a ton of velocity when he wants it. He threw 117 four-seamers above 98 mph, and 16 above 99 mph. His two hottest fastballs came on June 12 in an at-bat against Austin Barnes, throwing one four-seamer at 99.5 mph before reaching that season-high 100.2. He averaged 97.5 mph on the fastball in this start, but also averaged under 94 mph on four occasions throughout the year.

He is not a surprising name to show up on the list, as he came up as a real flamethrower and has been one of the guys to tamp it down a bit for longevity's sake. There's not much to do about this news in Rodon's case because he's being drafted as an ace already - but you can feel pretty good about Rodon's high strikeout rate going into 2023 once again.

Tyler Mahle, Minnesota Twins

We have gotten used to the "Tyler Mahle breakout year!" articles over the years, and it just never seems to happen. 2022 was a down year for Mahle, but he did still show us that he has some velocity in the tank.

On June 4, he threw a 97.9 mph four-seamer to Juan Soto, and the pitch earned a whiff for strike three - not an easy thing to do against Soto! Throughout the year, however, he managed just 23 fastballs above 96 mph, so his distribution is pretty narrow. I just wanted to include Mahle in here to try to conjure some of that classic Mahle hype.

Cole Irvin, Baltimore Orioles

Another common thread we find among breakout pitchers is a change in scenery. We have that working for us with Irvin this year as well as he was moved from Oakland to Baltimore this offseason.

That makes him a little bit more interesting, especially when we see that he did show the ability to climb above 95 mph, although that did happen just once all season against Giancarlo Stanton on June 29 (it was fouled off). He threw nine more fastballs above 94 mph and 51 above 93 mph, and these are all several ticks above that really low average of 90.7.

Even if he would climb to 92 mph or so, that probably wouldn't make much of a difference for him given how low he's starting from. However, with a new team and a new coaching staff - there comes the opportunity for other pitch tweaks and additions, so Irvin is definitely a cheap pitcher to keep an eye on.

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

I have this feeling that Fried could really turn into a high-strikeout pitcher if he felt like he needed to. He earned elite whiff rates on his curveball (40.2%) and his changeup (36.7%), although he does not prioritize those pitches in his arsenal, throwing them just 22% and 14% of the time, respectively. It would seem that if he threw fewer four-seamers and more changeups, for example, he could turn in some more strikeouts. But why would he change anything after two ace-like seasons in a row now?

But we get more evidence that Fried has a next level here. His fastball wasn't slow by any means, but from time to time, he really ramped it up. On seven different occasions, he went above 98 mph with the four-seamer. He threw 31 fastballs above 97 mph - the guy has velocity, but he just doesn't seem to think he needs it.

Fried is another guy being drafted as a top 20 starter, which takes away a lot of the upside, but imagine what this guy could do with a 27% strikeout rate - it seems firmly in the range of possible outcomes. As a ground-ball-heavy pitcher, maybe he will find it a little bit more imperative to get some extra strikeouts this year with the change in the shift rules that will work against him a bit. I'm perfectly happy to draft Fried as my SP1 - and you can typically do that in the fourth or fifth round.

Luis Garcia, Houston Astros

The Astros righty has a lot going for him, and that helped him post another solid year after his breakout 2021 season. Garcia throws five different pitches above 8% of the time and has double-digit swinging-strike rates on four of them. He stands out a ton when you look at the depth of pitch arsenal, which I did here.

Another point in his favor is that he stands out in this analysis, with a max velocity of four mph above his average. The four-seamer is also his favorite pitch, throwing it 42% of the time. It works nicely with the cutter he throws 29% of the time - but it did generate a lower SwStr% of just 9.8%. Add on a tick to the velocity, and I could see that reaching double-digits as well, and we could really see a step forward from Garcia in 2023.

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays

Manoah has had nothing but success in his short Major League career, but it has come with a lower strikeout rate of 24.7%. That makes some people hesitant to draft him as an SP1 or even SP2 - but there is some good news here. Manoah has extra velocity available to him, and maybe this is the year he starts to use it. He is newly 25 years old, so there's plenty of youth here, and it's not crazy to think his best years are ahead of him.

His fastest pitch of the year came on May 3 against who else but Aaron Judge. He threw the big man a 97.3 mph fastball, which Judge fouled off (a couple of pitches later, Judge hit his ninth homer of the year). He went above 97 mph just two other times all year, but he went above 95 with ease - doing that 224 times. I would not be surprised to see Manoah's average velocity tick up above 94 mph this year as he grows a bit. The sky is the limit.

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

A popular breakout pick for 2023 - Bradish certainly doesn't have any issue with the "stuff" portion of his game. His average velocity was already up there at 94.6, but he showed that he has 98+ on two occasions, and 97+ on 33 occasions. Bradish isn't as young as you might think (26), but he's a guy who had a lot of success in the minors and has plenty of upside in the repertoire. I'm buying Bradish this year, and it doesn't cost me a ton.

Bonus - Starters That Reached 100+ MPH

• Hunter Greene FF (102.6)
• Gerrit Cole FF (101.9)
• Jacob deGrom FF (101.7)
• Shohei Ohtani FF (101.4)
• Sandy Alcantara FF (101.4)
• Shohei Ohtani SI (101.2)
• Shane McClanahan FF (100.7)
• Luis Severino FF (100.3)
• Michael Kopech FF (100.2)
• Carlos Rodon FF (100.2)
• Luis Castillo FF (100.2)
• Nathan Eovaldi FF (100.0)

Surprising Names That Reached 99+ MPH

• Tarik Skubal FF (99.8)
• German Marquez SI (99.8)
• German Marquez FF (99.7)
• Logan Gilbert FF (99.6)
• Jon Gray FF (99.1)
• Tarik Skubal SI (99.0)

That's it for a trip down velo lane - check back every day for more MLB talk right here on RotoBaller!

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