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Week 14 of the NFL season is here. We have a big slate ahead of us with some leagues possibly starting their playoffs or being just one week out. Every week that we've played up to this point has been building towards this moment, and every decision could make or break your entire year. This is when you really have to lock in to make the season of work that you've put forth worth it.
We had another nearly flawless week last week. We went 5-of-6 overall with our lone miss happening when Trevor Lawrence left the game briefly with an injury before returning later on. Our three sits of the week all finished as QB24 or lower with Matt Ryan being the top finisher of that group. Our two hits in the start category were Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, who finished as QB6 and QB9 respectively on the week.
Because the NFL doesn't understand how to do bye weeks, we have some predicaments this week. After having just two teams off last week, we have six that are going to be on the shelf this week. More than likely, the only ones that you're really searching for replacements for are Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers and Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears. However, Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton and Taylor Heinicke all also got the week off.
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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
Philadelphia Eagles Pass Rush vs. Daniel Jones
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is somehow QB11 on the year by most scoring metrics. The main thing that has been holding him up has been his work on the ground as he’s averaging a career-high 43.5 yards per game on the ground. He’s accounted for 15 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions. However, this defense that he’s matchup up against has been one of the league’s best all season long.
The Philadelphia Eagles rank second in the NFL this season in sacks and adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile, the Giants are fifth in sacks allowed and second in adjusted sack rate allowed. The Eagles also lead the league with 23 takeaways. Between the high rate of sacks that the Eagles generate and the Giants allow, along with the still beat-up offensive line in front of Jones, it’s not a great matchup for him this week.
Verdict: Sit 'Em
Kansas City Chiefs Pass Rush vs. Russell Wilson
At this point in the season, I don’t know if I’m fading Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson because of his offensive line or just because of him at this point. If we remove quarterbacks with only one start, Wilson ranks 30th in points per game among quarterbacks. His offensive line has given up the fourth-most sacks on the year, and they aren’t going to be turning the corner any time soon.
Now, they get matched up with the defense that has generated the eighth-most sacks in the league and the league’s fifth-highest adjusted sack rate. The Broncos are still without two of their starting offensive linemen. In their last four games, the Chiefs have totaled 14 sacks, and they’re locked in a push for the top seed in the AFC. This seems like the final nail in the coffin for what has been a dramatically disappointing season for the Broncos.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Dallas Cowboys Pass Rush vs. Davis Mills
Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills got benched, and, just a few weeks later, he has been given his job back from Kyle Allen. The Texans have given up the eighth-most sacks in the NFL, and the 11th-worst sack rate. They are dealing with injuries to position players on offense, and they already have a struggling unit on the offensive line, even if the raw sack numbers don’t necessarily show it.
Unfortunately for Mills, he comes back against one of the defenses that has been playing arguably the best football in the NFL over the last three weeks. The Dallas Cowboys, over the last three weeks, have given up 35 points that weren’t in garbage time. On the year, they lead the league in sacks and adjusted sack rate, and they should absolutely feast against Mills this week.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
New York Giants Pass Rush vs. Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is quarterbacking the team with the league’s best record, and he’s doing so while being firmly in the hunt for the MVP award at the end of the season. He’s taken a surprisingly high amount of sacks, but he has more than made up for it with his overall performances. He’s scored 20 or more fantasy points in each of his last six games, and in seven of his last eight.
The Giants are tied for 11th in sacks this season, and they’re 10th in adjusted sack rate. They blitz at the highest rate of any team. On the year, Hurts has played four defenses that rank in the top 10 for blitz rate. He has an average quarterback rating of 101.9 with an average fantasy score of 27.65 in those four outings. The Giants can bring pressure, but Hurts has been answering the bell all season long against teams that bring those extra rushers.
Verdict: Start 'Em
Los Angeles Chargers Pass Rush vs. Tua Tagovailoa
Last week was the worst game of the season for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With his two starting offensive tackles out of the game, the defense got after him all day, and the great accuracy we had seen from him all year evaporated as he finished with a season-low 54.6 completion rate on 33 attempts while being sacked three times. The Dolphins are tied for the 10th-fewest sacks allowed this season, and, as long as tackle Terron Armstead is back, that will go a long way toward steadying Tua in the pocket.
Due to a myriad of issues, the Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season, especially on defense. They have racked up a total of 22 sacks, which is tied for the 27th-fewest sacks in the league, and they have the 22nd-worst adjusted sack rate. The Chargers give up the 11th-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Tua is in a prime bounce-back spot this week.
Verdict: Start ‘Em
Denver Broncos Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes
While Hurts is in the hunt for the MVP award, it’s Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ award to lose right now. The sixth-year signal-caller has been pushing all of the right buttons all season long. He has at least 17 fantasy points in every game this year, and he’s doing this in large part thanks to the offensive line in front of him. They rank fourth in the NFL in sacks allowed and adjusted sack rate.
The Broncos are in the middle of the pack in terms of sacks, but this defense is fading down the stretch due to the amount of time they’re spending on the field due to the struggles of the offense. Going back to his rookie season where he started just one game against the Broncos, Mahomes is 9-0 against them with a 12:4 touchdown:interception ratio against them. This defense has been great all year, but it’s hard to go against Mahomes right now.
Verdict: Start 'Em
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