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Week 10 of the NFL season is here. Just when you think you understand everything, the league throws you another curveball, or your team went from completely set at quarterback to in absolute shambles. Let's say you had Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen for some reason. Well, with one on bye and the other unlikely to play, you're now scrambling and quite possibly out of luck. The teams are largely settled at the top and bottom of each conference, but there are still surprises waiting around every corner.
We had a decent week in terms of the sits in Week 9. All three of the quarterbacks finished outside the top 12 at the position, and two of the three were QB22 or worse on the week. Trevor Lawrence scraped by to save us from getting blanked in the starts half of the column. Justin Herbert couldn't get a ton going against the Atlanta Falcons, and Aaron Rodgers just decided he wanted to stop doing the thing where he doesn't throw interceptions, although he still managed to scrap together a QB13 finish on the week due to the number of players that were off.
You're likely only searching for a replacement quarterback for one or two players on your various fantasy rosters, although some leagues could have you really scrambling. We have four teams on byes this week with the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots and New York Jets all sitting at home for this week. Throwing in Allen (elbow) does make things a little trickier though, but there are still some attackable matchups on the board this week.
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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
Dallas Cowboys Pass Rush vs. Aaron Rodgers
The Green Bay Packers enter Week 10 ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate at 5.1 percent, and they’re allowing an average of two sacks per game right now. Meanwhile, their opponent, the Dallas Cowboys defense, ranks first in the NFL in sacks and adjusted sack rate. After what we’ve seen the last couple of months from Green Bay, there’s no reason to have confidence in starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers this week.
Not only has the Green Bay offense in general struggled, they’re also quite banged up heading into this matchup. Not including David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, who have been on altered practice plans all season, six offensive starters were on the injury report on Wednesday, and that doesn’t include Rodgers, who has been dealing with a thumb issue for the past month. Dallas is fresh and rested off of the bye week, and Rodgers is playing what could be their final stand if they have any hopes of making a miraculous playoff push.
Verdict: Sit 'Em
Philadelphia Eagles Pass Rush vs. Taylor Heinicke
The NFL’s lone unbeaten team looks to continue that streak against Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Commanders. Since starting the season 1-4, Washington has ripped off three wins in their last four games, and the Minnesota Vikings needed a miracle comeback to win last week. However, it has not been their offensive line that has carried them. On the year, Washington ranks 29th in sacks and 25th in adjusted sack rate.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are fourth in adjusted sack rate and fifth in total sacks. They also rank ninth in pressure rate despite ranking 20th in blitz rate. While some teams need to bring the house to get pressure, the Eagles are doing it with just their front guys, and that makes life so much more difficult on the quarterback. When you get more pressure with fewer pass rushers, that puts more guys in coverage and makes it harder and harder to find the open man.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Las Vegas Raiders Pass Rush vs. Sam Ehlinger
On the year, the Las Vegas Raiders have just nine sacks, which is the fewest in the NFL. This is despite the fact that three of their seven largest cap hits are on edge rushers. The biggest disappointment in the bunch has to be Chandler Jones, who has just 0.5 sacks through eight games. However, Week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts and quarterback Sam Ehlinger are the perfect get-right spot for them.
The Colts have given up an NFL-high 35 sacks, and they’re 29th in adjusted sack rate. They’re also coming off of a game where they gave up nine sacks overall. For whatever reason, they just can’t slow down pass rushers with any consistency this season. It doesn’t help matters that they have a signal caller with minimal NFL experience under center. Ehlinger has more scrambling ability than Matt Ryan, and he’ll likely need it against this front looking to get out of a tailspin. There have also been rumors that Matt Ryan could be playing in this game. Regardless of who is under center, it doesn't look great for them.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
Detroit Lions Pass Rush vs. Justin Fields
For the first time all season, I have Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields in this half of the column. The Bears offensive line has struggled all year, but we’ve seen some growth out of the offense specifically over the last few weeks. Fields has scored 17 or more points in each of his last five games, and he’s cleared 23 points in each of his last three. He has yet to be sacked fewer than two times in a game this season, but he’s making some progress.
Now, he draws a Detroit Lions’ defense that has struggled to generate pressure all season. They’re tied for 31st in sacks with 12, and they’re 27th in adjusted sack rate. That’s due in large part to the porous run defense they’ve played all year. Fields is likely going to have room to run against this defense, and, with the way he’s playing lately, you just can’t afford to sit him on your bench against one of the league’s worst defenses.
Verdict: Start 'Em
Jacksonville Jaguars Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes
Do you really need me to tell you that starting Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes against the Jacksonville Jaguars is a good idea? Well, if you do, then, it is a good idea. In his last five games, he’s gone for 19 or more points in all five and 23 or more in four of the five. He’s also thrown for 400 yards in back-to-back games as the team continues to struggle with establishing the run. His offensive line has also done great this year as they rank in the top five in adjusted sack rate and sacks allowed.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have shown flashes of being great, but they haven’t put everything together thus far. They rank last in adjusted sack rate at just 4.3 percent, which means they generate one sack on roughly every 25 dropbacks. For comparison, Dallas leads that category at 10.6 percent. The Jaguars have young talent all over the roster, but they aren’t quite ready to take down the big dogs yet.
Verdict: Start ‘Em
Green Bay Packers Pass Rush vs. Dak Prescott
Since returning from injury, we have yet to see Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott put up eye-popping numbers in any one of his outings. He had a little over 25 points prior to the bye week against the Bears, but that was largely aided by a rushing touchdown as he had just 250 passing yards. This Green Bay Packers defense is ripe for the taking for Prescott this week. Dallas ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate, and they’ve given up just 12 total on the year.
On the other side, Green Bay is absolutely reeling. Their leading sacker, Rashan Gary (ACL) is out for the remainder of the season. They’re also dealing with injuries to cornerback Eric Stokes, and edge Preston Smith among others. Green Bay has struggled to stop the run this year, and they’re not going to be any better with the injuries they’re suffering with. On the road, we should see Dak have a strong game against this Green Bay defense.
Verdict: Start 'Em
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