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Nicho's players to avoid in the early rounds of 2025 fantasy football leagues. His early-round fantasy draft avoids and busts, including Amon-Ra St. Brown and more.
Hey, RotoBallers! Welcome to another edition of pre-season NFL content, where I will discuss early-round landmines to avoid in the first three rounds of your upcoming NFL draft, according to NFFC. For the sake of this article, I will assume 12-team leagues, meaning I will examine players with an ADP of 36.0 or lower.
Keep in mind that these players to avoid are not bad players; it's not to say that they will not produce. However, their value doesn't align with their current ADP, and there are other players available around them who possess higher upside. If these players slip in your drafts, I would still consider them, but not at their current ADP.
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Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
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Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
NFFC ADP: 8.0 | WR5
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a standout since joining the NFL in 2021, racking up 4,851 receiving yards and 33 touchdowns in four seasons. His inclusion on this list is not based on his performance as a player, but rather on his current draft position and situation.
Let's talk about what happend this offseason; he had offseason surgery to clean up his knee, he has a new offensive coordinator in John Morton, (Ben Johnson took the head coaching job for the Chicago Bears), and the Lions have playmakers all over the field in Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and David Montgomery. The Lions are expecting big things from Williams this season.
I don’t think people thought I was being serious when I said Jameson Williams may end the 2025 season ‘Top 5’ in receiving yards.
I was being serious. #OnePride pic.twitter.com/7SaJ7rO43h
— Natalie Sparbeck (@NatSparbeck) July 26, 2025
Additionally, reports from camp have suggested that Gibbs has been getting more work as a receiver. This is a significant concern for me because it limits St. Brown's overall upside on short and intermediate routes and targets, which is where he excels.
St. Brown will undoubtedly have his big weeks, but with the Lions facing a first-place schedule and undergoing significant changes during the offseason, I believe his weekly upside will be limited.
When you are looking at your first-round pick, you are looking for a safe floor and a ceiling that is ultimately untapped, and when I look at St. Brown, even last year, he scored 10 or fewer fantasy points in five games. To put that into perspective, Puka Nacua did not score less than 10 points in any game last season when he was healthy and played the whole game.
Verdict: Look, St. Brown is a great player, and I am not taking anything away from him. For me, there are too many roadblocks for him to reach his ceiling in 2025, especially when guys like CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, and Brian Thomas Jr. are all guys that are going around St. Brown that I would draft before him.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
NFFC ADP: 33.0 | WR15
Miami Dolphins' 31-year-old Tyreek Hill saw a significant decline in production, volume, yards per reception, and efficiency metrics in 2024. Hill went from 119 receptions in 2023 to 81 in 2024. He also went from 1,799 to 959 receiving yards and from 17 touchdowns to six in 2024.
Hill has built his career on explosive plays and YAC (which he ranked 68th in the NFL in 2024). While he still demands a lot of opportunities and volume, his floor is not safe for a third-round pick.
Per Next Gen Stats, Hill's top speed in 2023 was 22.01 mph, and he held three of the top 10 slots, but couldn't crack the top 20 in 2024, reaching 20.52 mph in Week 10. He is not creating as much separation as he once did, and Father Time appears to be catching up to him, potentially.
I realize that the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa plays a key role in Hill's production, but Hill isn't getting any younger, and there might be some tension between Hill and Tagovailoa.
“I don’t feel it’s me talking bad about my teammate. I’m just trying to hold him accountable. If this is what we say the standard is then that is what the standard is & nobody is exempt.”#Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa details his relationship with Tyreek Hill & Year 6 leadership. pic.twitter.com/MP8HHki4b2
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) July 26, 2025
Last season in Week 18, Hill said, "I'm out" following the Week 18 regular-season finale last year. These comments came after he was reportedly pulled from the game, and perhaps insinuated he was giving up on his teammates. In addition, there may be a new WR1 in town for the Dolphins, in Jaylen Waddle.
Reports from camp suggest that Tagovailoa and Waddle are hitting on all cylinders. Considering Hill's age, his desire to join the Dolphins team following his comments, and his decline in production, I am avoiding him in leagues this season.
Verdict: Hill has been a fantasy superstar for a long time, and although he has the pedigree to continue to be a superstar, he is currently one that I am staying away from in 2025. His relationship with the Dolphins feels toxic, and his overall decline in production and efficiency is cause for concern.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
NFFC ADP: 30.0 | QB3
Alright, I understand I might get some criticism for including everyone's favorite Cincinnati Bengals quarterback, Joe Burrow, on this list, but hear me out. Burrow put up MVP numbers in 2024, with 4,918 passing yards, 43 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. We are currently drafting Joe Burrow at his ceiling, given that he has no rushing upside.
The key is the rushing upside. Burrow is currently being drafted as QB3 according to NFFC, when I believe both Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels are better fantasy quarterbacks, due to their dual-threat rushing abilities.
Five quarterbacks stand above the rest in fantasy football this season, led by Lamar Jackson pic.twitter.com/voqM565J0B
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) July 30, 2025
For him to reach his ADP in the third round, he will have to throw for another 4o-plus touchdowns again, and he has only done that once in his career. While I still expect the Bengals' defense to be subpar and the team will likely need to throw the ball frequently, I struggle to justify Burrow as a third-round pick and the third overall quarterback.
When you look at the quarterback position (unless it's a super-flex league) I would rather build up on my running backs or wide receivers with this pick, and target someone like Brock Purdy (QB13), Justin Fields (QB15), Jordan Love (QB16), Drake Maye (QB18), or J.J. McCarthy (QB20) later in the draft who all have rushing upside and don't need to throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns minumum per week to keep up with other quarterbacks with rushing upside.
Verdict: Burrow had a breakout campaign in 2024, and although he is an elite thrower of the football, when I look at the potential for regression in the passing touchdowns department, and guys like Kenneth Walker III, Chase Brown, Jayden Daniels, Tee Higgins, Jalen Hurts, Davante Adams, and Rashee Rice all going around the same time as Burrow, I have a hard time believing Burrow is worth the 30th overall pick.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
NFFC ADP: 34.0 | RB13
New York Jets fourth-year running back Breece Hall is coming into this season after a decent year in 2024, where he rushed for 876 yards and five touchdowns to go along with 483 receiving yards and three touchdowns; however, Hall's has seen his advanced numbers slip since the beginning of his career (-44 expected points added in 2024).
In addition, running back Braelon Allen has been the talk of camp, and it appears that this may be more of a running back committee, compared to a number one and number two rushing attack.
Braelon Allen
1B to Breece Hall’s 1A.
Aaron Glenn loves Allen…
“Braelon is a 240-pound man that’s always falling forward… it’s going to weigh on defensive players.”
Predicting true RB committee between Allen & Hall for fantasy football.
pic.twitter.com/w83n6Ody8L— Joe Orrico (@JoeOrricoFF) July 31, 2025
While Hall is also a great pass-catching back, Fields is now his quarterback in 2025, and he is more prone to using his legs compared to firing check-downs to running backs, which also lowers Hall's ceiling in the passing game. Last season, Hall had a decent season, catching 57 balls, thanks in part to Aaron Rodgers being his quarterback, who isn't as mobile as Fields.
Similar to discussing a handful of the players mentioned above, notable options include Walker, Brown, Daniels, Higgins, Hurts, Adams, and Rice, all of whom are available around the 34th pick or later.
Verdict: I expect Hall to see a timeshare with Allen and experience a decrease in his production as a receiver, making his ADP in the third round a bit steep for my liking; he also has the potential to be a bust in 2025.
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