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Justin Carter evaluates wide receivers who should see their target share decrease in 2022. These WRs are fantasy football fallers and could be draft busts.
One of my mantras when thinking about fantasy football is "targets are king." When I'm putting together my in-season wide receiver waiver wire suggestions, the first thing I do is look at targets.
Why? Because to score fantasy points as a wide receiver, you need to get the football in your hands. And to get the football in your hands, you need the quarterback to look your way.
In this article, I'll be looking at five NFL players whose share of their team's targets should go down in 2022, which will likely be a bad thing for them in fantasy. [Note: target data for this piece all comes from Add More Funds.]
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Diontae Johnson - Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 Target Share: 28.5%
Diontae Johnson got peppered with short targets from Ben Roethlisberger last year. His average depth of target per PlayerProfiler was 8.2, which ranked 76th among wide receivers. Overall, he was second among all receivers with 169 targets and fourth among receivers in target share at 28.5%. He led all receivers in routes run. He was fifth in receptions and eighth in fantasy points per game.
Again, that was with Ben Roethlisberger, who had reached the stage of his career where he just dumped the ball off to his safety receiver a bunch. His aDOT of 6.7 ranked 32nd among NFL quarterbacks.
I expect whoever starts under center for the Steelers — Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett— to be a little more interested in getting the ball down the field. That would lead to more involvement for Chase Claypool, whose average target distance of 11.5 last season ranked 31st in the league. He was 30th among receivers in targets. Claypool's big frame makes him a better deep option than Johnson, so if we work under the assumption that the Steelers will throw deeper this year, Claypool benefits and Johnson loses some looks.
Beyond that, the team replaced JuJu Smith-Schuster, who played in five games last season, with second-round pick George Pickens, and also added fourth-rounder Calvin Austin III. If Pickens is healthy, that's another player to compete with targets. Johnson's a good player, but there are too many factors working against him this year. Don't expect the same level of involvement in the Steelers offense, even if he will still lead the team in targets overall.
Brandin Cooks - Houston Texans
2021 Target Share: 26.9%
I don't think Cooks will see a huge drop in targets this year, but he's been operating pretty close to his ceiling in terms of targets since joining the Texans. In 2020, Cooks had 119 targets in 15 games. Last year, he had 134 targets in 16 games. He's been a reliable weapon for whoever has been under center in Houston, but he also hasn't really faced a lot of competition for targets.
Last year, Nico Collins was second on the team in targets with 60. That's 74 fewer targets than Cooks. David Johnson was third on the team with 42, followed by Danny Amendola (38) and Chris Conley (37). Raise your hand if you remembered that Chris Conley was a Texan.
In 2022, the Texans have made one meaningful upgrade, adding rookie John Metchie III in the second round. Metchie is coming off a torn ACL but should be ready to go around the start of the season.
The biggest reason I expect to see Cooks' targets drop? Nico Collins. The second-year receiver showed promise down the stretch last year and should be a lot closer to Cooks this year. I'd guess Cooks probably sees a drop of around a target per game, which puts him around 117. Still good, but it's a drop that'll show up a little bit on the stat sheet.
Jaylen Waddle - Miami Dolphins
2021 Target Share: 24.6%
Jaylen Waddle is our first "well, his team went out and got an elite receiver" guy of this article. As a rookie, Waddle saw 24.61% of Miami's targets, leading the team. DeVante Parker was at 21.86% and Mike Gesicki at 18.73%.
The Dolphins added Tyreek Hill this offseason. And while Waddle is going to improve overall in his second NFL season, that improvement will likely show up mainly in the efficiency category. With Tua Tagovailoa throwing the ball and Tyreek Hill on the field, I can't imagine Waddle getting 141 targets.
Though, there is another possibility here, which is that Hill and Waddle both get peppered with a ton of targets and it's another Dolphin that gets left out. Gesicki saw 112 targets last year. Will he approach that this season? Either way, the Hill trade means that one of Waddle/Gesicki is in for a pretty noticeable drop in target share this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Detroit Lions
2021 Target Share: 22.5%
The Lions had no one to catch passes last year. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team in targets with 119. T.J. Hockenson was second at 84...in just 12 games. D'Andre Swift had 78 targets. Kalif Raymond had 71. Jamaal Williams, who played 13 games and just 37.7% of the snaps in those 13 games, finished fifth on the team in targets, ahead of all but two wide receivers. It was a mess and St. Brown benefited by being the best of that mess.
St. Brown will continue to play a key role this season, but he'll actually face some competition for targets. A healthy Hockenson could end up leading the team in targets, but then there's also the addition of rookie Jameson Williams plus veteran players D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds. Reynolds in particular is interesting because of his history with quarterback Jared Goff.
With all these new additions, St. Brown will see fewer opportunities, though I think he'll be fine when it comes to fantasy because he'll be more efficient with those opportunities.
Hunter Renfrow - Las Vegas Raiders
2021 Target Share: 21.5%
The 2021 season wasn't good for the wide receiver position in Vegas. There was obviously the Henry Ruggs III situation, but even beyond that, the team didn't have a lot happening. Wide receivers not named Hunter Renfrow combined for just 14 red zone targets. For comparison sake, Renfrow had 23 red zone targets, which was 31.5% of the team's red zone targets. That was among the NFL leaders in that stat. Only three wide receivers played double-digit games and had a larger percentage of their team's red zone looks.
2021 was a career season for Renfrow, as he caught 103 passes for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns. Unfortunately, that was probably the high point of his career. Darren Waller only played 11 games last year. Per RotoViz, Renfrow had about one more reception per game in the six games without Waller, with his yards per game going from 55.7 when Waller played to 66.8 when Waller didn't.
But that's not all: the Raiders have Davante Adams now. Adams saw 169 targets in Green Bay last year. His target share only ranked below Cooper Kupp. There's just no way Renfrow sees the level of involvement that he saw last year.
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