Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed Fantasy Football Outlooks: Post-Derek Carr Retirement

John Johnson breaks down fantasy football outlooks for Tyler Shough, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed on the New Orleans Saints after the retirement of Derek Carr.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr announced his retirement on May 10, in a surprise move (well, somewhat) that will have many fantasy football implications moving forward. Carr's tenure with the Saints was rocky, marked mainly by inconsistency and, obviously, injury issues.

The Saints drafted quarterback Tyler Shough, a rookie from Louisville, as injury insurance for Carr in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. At that time, reports had already been made that Carr was dealing with a shoulder injury that could knock him out for the 2025 season. Now, he's played the last game of his career.

While the Saints also have quarterbacks Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener on their rosters, neither has performed at a level worthy of a starting NFL QB. Thus, it's likely that Shough gets a shot at it. So it's worth breaking down his fantasy football outlook, as well as those of the team's top two receivers. Let's dive in!

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Tyler Shough Fantasy Football Outlook

Shough was a second-round selection in one of the weaker quarterback classes in recent memory. This year's class was nothing like the 2024 group. New Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward, selected with the first overall pick in this year's draft, would have likely been the seventh-best signal-caller were he among last year's rookies.

Shough's outlook isn't that great. None of the 32 NFL teams considered him a starting-caliber quarterback, and each passed on him in the first two rounds. It stands to reason that Saints head coach Kellen Moore hasn't decided on the starter yet.

Kellen Moore said that Shough, Rattler and Haener will compete for the starting job

— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) May 10, 2025

Assuming that Shough wins the job, he'll likely have nearly no upside in single-quarterback leagues. It would be one of the more stunning developments for a QB in recent memory if he turns into a quality start in Year 1 (or really ever, for that matter). But obviously, in superflex leagues, he's worth a late-round flier.

He'll probably be among the four or five worst starting QBs in the league if he does get the job. Perhaps the Saints will have to punt this year on offense, but you don't want to count on this guy for much of anything. A bench stash in deeper superflex/2QB leagues that you start in case of emergency (injuries or bye week hell) is all he'll likely be as a rookie.

Chris Olave Fantasy Football Outlook

Olave bagholders in dynasty fantasy football are likely even more depressed after the recent news. Every season, Olave is hyped as being a breakout candidate, always primed to make that next step into being a true fantasy WR1, until he doesn't. With Carr at QB, he wasn't even the WR1 in 2024.

That is, if you consider the WR1 as the receiver that gets more targets, has more receiving yards, has a higher target share and first-read target share, and scores more touchdowns as the WR1. Shaheed bested Olave in all those categories in the season's first six games, before injuries decimated the Saints' WR group.

OH-LAVE! 😱

📺: #ATLvsNO on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/owxsTBvh63

— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024

Olave's flaws are constantly drowned in a sea of social media propaganda. Groupthink favors him as its golden child, who just needs to break away from his poor situation if he wants to have a huge season. He's a solid receiver, but the injury issues and lack of connection with his quarterback have led to this point.

With Shough, it's hard to trust ever having him in your starting lineup outside of deeper leagues. There should be plenty of weeks where he doesn't even put up flex-worthy numbers. He's likely headed for the worst season by points per game in his career.

If I’m Aaron Rodgers, I’d much prefer playing in a dome with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks, and Alvin Kamara in a pass-friendly Kellen Moore offense than going to Pittsburgh.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) May 10, 2025

Playing devil's advocate here, it's possible that Saints general manager Mickey Loomis decides to trade for quarterback Kirk Cousins or sign Aaron Rodgers. Who knows if either of them even wants to play for New Orleans? But if he does, Olave would probably have another season (if he stays healthy) of mediocre production.

Cousins outside of Kevin O'Connell's system didn't exactly play lights out. Even though he'll be another year off from his Achilles tear from 2023, he's not likely to elevate Olave massively. He'd be better than Rodgers, though. His body doesn't seem to be able to stand up to NFL punishment anymore.

If Aaron Rodgers goes to Pittsburgh, there will be plenty of discussion about his performance in 2024.

Claims he is "back" will sound something like...

"Rodgers played every game and, despite dealing with injuries and controversy at every turn, had his best season since 2021 in… pic.twitter.com/pKumbon8nS

— Football Bettors (@fbbettors) March 10, 2025

I don't agree with much of the above tweet, but he dealt with a ton of injuries in 2024. That's not debatable. He's 41 years old and will turn 42 late in the 2025 season. Loomis makes moronic decisions based on what's best for the team, but he likely knows he'd be fired if the team had a few losing seasons.

That's what's needed for their rebuild, but Loomis wants to keep his job, so I imagine a Rodgers or Cousins acquisition isn't too unlikely. In that case, things look a little better for Olave. I still have serious concerns about his ability to stay healthy, though.

Either way, I'd want to sell him in dynasty leagues, though I've been recommending selling him to whoever will listen after his disappointing 2024.

Rashid Shaheed Fantasy Football Outlook

As said above, Shaheed led Olave in nearly every statistical category over the healthy games the two played together. Undoubtedly, part of this was due to Carr's personal preferences. Now that he's out of the picture, it's still unclear who will be the more heavily utilized (and more productive) of the two.

Of course, if Shough, Haener, or Rattler are the starter, things don't look very good. In dynasty leagues, his value will sink even further, and in redraft leagues, it's debatable whether he's even worth drafting in the first 10 rounds. He's a good receiver, though.

We forget how ELECTRIC Rashid Shaheed was at the beginning of last season... Target him in a trade! pic.twitter.com/0VUs3jG3Mr

— Dynasty Nerds (@DynastyNerds) February 13, 2025

One has to assume that a big reason was Carr's massive penchant for the deep ball. Shaheed excelled on deep routes in his cut-short 2024 campaign, and he and Carr connected on a few massive plays, including long scores against the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys.

A new offensive coordinator means a new offense, especially with Carr out of the picture. Shaheed should still be able to threaten offenses deep, but if the new starting QB isn't able to connect with him deep, his value could evaporate quickly.

Rashid Shaheed in six games last year:

87% routes
25% targets
50% air yards
36% endzone tgts
12.6 ppr/gm

That is pretty pretty pretty good, y'all.

Recovering from meniscus surgery but current timelines say ready for season. Biggest question is QB situation?

WR53 on Underdog.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) May 6, 2025

It did look like last year was his true breakout campaign, though. He was a raw prospect coming out of college, as should be expected from anyone from Weber State. Yet he showed impressive refinement in his game. I wouldn't be surprised if he and Olave form a 1A/1B duo, whatever that's good for at this point.

His meniscus should be fully healed by now, and I doubt it will be an issue in 2025. Moore's offense heavily emphasized throwing the ball before he joined the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024, so it makes sense that he changed his plan. Running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts formed a formidable rushing duo behind an elite offensive line.

Kellen Moore’s offenses have motion, under center designed in it plus it’s successful against the blitz

Sign me up! #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/5zLft02SuQ

— All About The Birds (@AATBirds) January 28, 2024

Moore's air-raid style offense from his days with the Chargers should resemble what he'll implement here. Still, it's hard to look past the QB situation. If the Saints don't trade for Cousins, I won't be interested in Shaheed in non-extremely-deep redraft leagues in 2024.

I don't think Rodgers will give Shaheed a bunch of extra value, and I doubt that the team's other quarterbacks will be able to consistently connect with him on deep routes. Shaheed is excellent as a field-stretcher, but the lack of talent throwing the ball to him should hurt his production significantly.

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