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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and the Texans and offers his favorite prop picks for Monkey Knife Fight.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in Thursday night's NFL opener between the Texans and the Chiefs. Let's take a look at some of my favorites. Just a hint, I'm taking a lot of overs in these pick-ems.
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Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs: More or Less Contest
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 59.5 rushing yards
- Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions,
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 319.5 passing yards
- Will Fuller OVER 69.5 receiving yards
If running back Damien Williams was still a thing, this would be a different story. However, he’s not, and the biggest threat to CEH getting touches is Darrel Williams. Tonight is going to be a ton of fireworks, and he is going to be a major part of it. The Houston Texans were the eighth-worst defense against the run last season, and they didn’t make any major improvements on that side of the ball. This is pretty easy money in my book.
The Chiefs throw the ball a lot, and tight end Travis Kelce is arguably the best in the NFL at his position. He went over 6.5 catches in nine of the 16 regular-season games last season. In the postseason matchup between these two teams, he caught 10 passes. I’m expecting an offensive explosion with Kelce having a big game individually.
The high total on this game means that Las Vegas is expecting a lot of offense in this game, and that starts with Mahomes for the Chiefs. He went over this total in seven out of 14 games last season, and that includes the game he left early due to his knee injury. The Texans' defense doesn't have the pieces to keep up with all of Kansas City's weapons. As long as this doesn't become an early blowout where the Chiefs starting running the clock, this should hit pretty easily.
As long as Fuller plays the entire game, he will hit this. With Hopkins out of the fold, Watson is going to have to throw to someone, and he and Fuller have shown a great connection in the past. In 11 games last season, he averaged over 60 yards per game with Hopkins on the field with him. Those targets and yards are going to have to go somewhere else. Against a high-octane Chiefs' offense, they'll be looking to take some big shots, and it will only take Fuller one or two catches for this to hit.
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Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs: More or Less Contest
- Deshaun Watson OVER 280.5 passing yards
- Tyreek Hill OVER 79.5 yards
- Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 59.5 rushing yards
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 319.5 passing yards
The Chiefs win games by just outsourcing everyone else on the field. Having the best quarterback in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes will allow you to do that successfully. With that, their defense tends to give up some yardage with the old bend-don’t break mantra. Watson lost his star wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, but he still has a lot of talent in wide receivers Will Fuller V and Brandin Cooks. It only takes a play or two for him to have a big night. If this turns into a shootout like I’m expecting, he should have no problem hitting this mark.
Similar to Kelce, I think this one is just too easy for Hill to hit. Mahomes throws the ball a ton, but he heavily features two players over everyone else. Kelce is one, and Hill is the other. While players like Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins go off every few weeks, Hill is a rockstar on a weekly basis. The Texans don’t have the speed in their defensive back room to keep up with Hill, and he’s going to be running wild all night.
On these last three picks, I already have confidence in them hitting on my other contest. Now, I'm just trying to double down on that confidence. Mahomes will be throwing the ball enough for Kelce to get to 6.5 receptions with ease. The Chiefs run against light boxes because they spread the field so well that Clyde will have an easy night of running, and I think the Chiefs will be looking to run it up with Mahomes slinging it. Give me all of the overs in this game.
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Texans @ Chiefs: Rapid Fire Contest
Patrick Mahomes OVER 13.5 fantasy points & Deshaun Watson UNDER 11.5 fantasy points
This one is under the awesome Rapid Fire Challenges. I think the Chiefs are going to come out hot, and that second-quarter is where they usually make their money. On the other side, I think the Texans are going to come out on the slower side. I’m expecting some nerves on both sides, but the Chiefs are just more explosive. The Texans can score some points in the second half, but I think the Chiefs win the first half behind Mahomes.
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