Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

March 2, 2026

Todd McGill's DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. Picks for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

It's hard to know where to begin this article after the collapse we saw on Sunday at PGA National. Shane Lowry, the feature of last week's HFC article, had a three-shot lead with that many holes left to play. What followed was a totally unexpected spiral that certainly isn't seen in players as proven as the Irishman. Nico Echavarria made a gutsy birdie on the 71st hole to put him squarely in the driver's seat, and he would ultimately win in regulation to claim his third career victory.

Things now move into the heart of the Florida Swing, beginning with this week at the home of "The King." Bay Hill has been synonymous with Arnold Palmer for its entire life on the PGA Tour. The Hall of Famer began hosting this event in 1979, officially bearing its current tournament name in 2007. It is one of the more prestigious events of the regular tour season and thus has an immense level of course history to pull from.

Horse For The Course is an article highlighting players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For some of the favorite DFS plays of the week, check out the Core Four article written by my buddy, Joe Nicely, here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using the Promo Code TDG for an extra discount at checkout!

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

After an off-week of sorts, we are back to the heartier, more notable events for golf fans to sink their teeth into. All of the big names are back to the grind for the next couple of weeks. Many have solid history in this event, and since Bay Hill is among the most predictive layouts from a course history perspective, it's an important week to dive into who's had the most success here.

Interestingly, many of the PGA Tour's biggest names had a frustrating close to the West Coast Swing. Scottie Scheffler is one rough nine holes away from already having multiple wins. Rory McIlroy blew a gettable opportunity at Riviera. Guys like Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg have struggled to find a real spark. All that factored in, it seems like the list of names who have realistic shots to win this week in Orlando is longer than usual.

Scores can vary more at Bay Hill than at other tournaments on the schedule. The timing in Orlando brings unpredictable weather that tends have a massive effect on scores. Tournament days look perfect for scoring, and chances of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday could soften what should be a firm course, with Central Florida only receiving a little over an inch of rain in February.

You can find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report weekly. Be sure to read our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles and Player News/Matchup Outlook Posts to help you win big!

Bay Hill Club and Lodge

Par 72 - 7,466 | Greens: Bermudagrass | Designed By: Dick Wilson/Joe Lee

As one of what seems like a million courses in Orange County, the Bay Hill Club and Lodge doesn't do much to separate itself as a premier course in the area. However, the blessing from Palmer and his iconic presence made this event the giant it is on tour. Even with his passing in 2016, it's still one of the most sought-after tournament wins.

Since it lacks a bit of in-depth strategy off the tee, the course shows its teeth by forcing players to hit fairways and greens. The rough is typically thicker around this property than at other regular-season events, and the short game becomes much more important than it has been for most of this early season. So, while length has had its moment in the sun here, accuracy has much more longevity.

With the length pushing many approach shots to 175 yards and longer, players who find their name on the first page of the leaderboard will make up a ton of ground on the par-5s. Tiger Woods was a force on those holes, which ultimately led to eight career total wins in this event. In 2013, he shot a combined -14 under on those four holes.

Other stats to consider: strokes gained on approach (specifically beyond 175 yards), par-3 scoring, and fairways in regulation.

Recent API Winners

• 2025: Russell Henley (-11)
• 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
• 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
• 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)

The Horse

Scottie Scheffler

• Notable Finishes: 1st ('22 & '24), T4 ('23)

While Scottie Scheffler has maintained the same level of moxy since winning the American Express, it hasn't been without its unusual blunders. He arguably should have already won again, if not twice, and from a statistical standpoint, that shortfall has been with the approach play. When he has consistently gained more strokes with his putter than his irons over his last five starts, there is obviously something going on.

All that said, he is still the de facto best player in the world, and the likelihood that he resurges in that part of his game is high. He'll have a difficult test at Bay Hill, as his approach play over 200 yards has seen the worst of his downturn, with a nearly 79% drop in hole proximity compared to his two-year baseline. I still have no qualms putting him as this week's horse. He's earned that right, having been the victor in two of the last four years.

The Ponies

Rory McIlroy

• Notable Finishes: T2 ('23), T10 ('21), T13 ('22)

Rory McIlroy’s birdie on the final hole earned him $600,000 more than if he had made par. 💰 pic.twitter.com/OgkZkEVeB1

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 22, 2026

Winning this event in 2018, it is a little amazing that Rory McIlroy hasn't managed to do it again since. It hasn't been for lack of effort, as he only has one finish outside the top 15 since (T21... I know, terrible). He hasn't been as much of a part of the conversation over the last two years due to losing strokes with the irons, but the handle that the rest of his game has on this golf course still allowed him to produce decent outcomes.

We last saw McIlroy at Riviera, where, despite gaining over two strokes on the greens throughout the course of the week, had to die on the sword of missing every meaningful putt needed on Sunday to put pressure on the eventual winner, Jacob Bridgeman. Still, the 36-year-old is leading the tour in strokes gained on approach (+1.464) heading into this week, and will surely be a part of the conversation come Thursday.

Corey Conners

• Notable Finishes: 3rd ('21 & '25), T11 ('22)

Golfers — A memory unlike any other. Corey Conners is dialed with his Masters stats. pic.twitter.com/jKa2oG8bRo

— PING GOLF (@PingTour) April 8, 2025

He has been a little sparse over the last seven months, but Corey Conners has been one of the most frequent faces at this event over the last five seasons. His worst finish over that span has been a T21. The Canadian leads the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.173) at Bay Hill, and ranks third overall for total strokes gained at an even +2.00.

There's no getting around the fact that he's struggled to get things going so far this season. His typically dominant approach-play has lost an average of -0.383 over his last three starts, and he's only hit 40% of his greens from over 200 yards since the start of the year. Luckily, the 34-year-old still hits it on a rope off the tee, so this week's success all depends on him working out the kinks with the irons.

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Keegan Bradley

• Notable Finishes: T5 ('25), T10 ('21 & '23)

The difference a day makes for Keegan Bradley 😳

Watch Boston Common GC vs. New York Golf Club on ESPN and the ESPN App pic.twitter.com/4trOtUilgJ

— ESPN (@espn) February 25, 2026

There is a trend of scepticism throughout this article, despite the overwhelming evidence for each player mentioned, and Keegan Bradley is no different. He missed the cut at Riviera a couple of weeks ago after losing over five strokes on the greens over the first two days. He's been a short-game freak, averaging +1.04 strokes gained around the green over his last three starts, but it'll need to work overtime if the rest of his game remains the same this week at Bay Hill.

Approach play has been his biggest hindrance, and that fear also comes into play here. Since the beginning of the season, last year's USA Ryder Cup Captain has only hit 36.8% of his greens from over 200 yards. However, his 4.38 par-5 scoring average (ranked 12th on the PGA Tour) and 61.9% biride rate should offer him plenty of chances to stay in the fight this week.

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