NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

October 30, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season. Week 8 was one of the least competitive weeks of football in recent memory, with 12 of the 13 games being decided by double-digits. Favorites went 11-2, with each covering the spread by at least seven points. The dominance by favorites has been a common theme this season, which is a positive for Pick 'em Pools, but there are always a few landmines in the NFL.

The injuries at the quarterback position around the league are unfortunate to see, with eight teams in Week 8 missing their Week 1 starter. But there are some big-time matchups on deck for Week 9, featuring the annual duel between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills as well as a clash between two of the best defensive units in football, with the Denver Broncos going on the road to face the Houston Texans.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 9.

Week 9 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

14 - Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans

The Rams are fresh off a bye and expect to get star WR Puka Nacua (ankle) back for this one. On the other side, rookie QB Tyler Shough will make his first career start. Sean McVay is 8-2 against rookie QBs and 5-3 off bye weeks in his career as Rams head coach. For what it's worth, Matthew Stafford is coming off his fifth career five-touchdown game against the Jaguars in Week 7. In three out of the four games that followed his five touchdown outings, he's thrown four, three, and three interceptions, respectively.

13 - Green Bay vs. Carolina

Carolina got trampled in Week 8 by a Buffalo Bills team that was fresh off two straight losses and a bye week. It looks like they will get starting QB Bryce Young (ankle) back for this matchup after a disastrous Andy Dalton game. Meanwhile, the Packers are rounding into form. They've scored at least 27 points in every game this season except for their wacky Week 3 loss in Cleveland. It feels like a big mismatch for Young, who has yet to beat an above .500 team on the road for his career (0-7).

12 - Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee

Joe Alt returned for the Chargers in their Week 8 blowout win against the Vikings, and his impact was immediately felt. They rushed for 207 yards as a team, their most since Week 2 of last season. Justin Herbert has faced the Titans four times in his career, winning three at home and losing at Tennessee in overtime in 2023. The Chargers haven't won at Tennessee since 2009.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 9 Pick 'Em Pools

11 - Detroit vs. Minnesota

J.J. McCarthy is expected to make his much-discussed return in a tough spot on the road in Detroit. McCarthy struggled in his first two games of the season, and then he has missed the past five weeks with an ankle injury. Minnesota is coming off the second-largest margin of defeat in the Kevin O'Connell era (since 2022), with a 37-10 loss on Thursday Night Football against the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Lions are off the bye week and are one of four teams in the NFL to be top 10 in offensive and defensive EPA/Play (Patriots, Rams, Chiefs).

10 - Baltimore at Miami

Lamar Jackson returns for Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins. He's played two games at Miami for his career, with those performances being polar opposites. Both are memorable, however, and notably against the current Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The first one came in Week 1 of his unanimous MVP season in 2019, where he had more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (three). It was one of the most efficient passing performances of all time, with his 21.20 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) being the third-highest ever recorded in a game.

“Can’t wait to touch the grass with my guys.” @Lj_era8 on returning pic.twitter.com/IjmEj4LZJl

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 28, 2025

The other game also came on a Thursday night in 2021 against Flores, where he sent the same all-out blitz at Jackson 35 times in the game. It was one of the worst games of his career with a 4.95 AY/A. Baltimore obviously won't be facing a Flores defense in this matchup. They've faced Mike McDaniel twice since becoming the Dolphins head coach, totaling 94 points, but Miami is coming off its best defensive performance of the season, holding Atlanta to just 10 points and 213 total yards.

9 - New England vs. Atlanta

We have the sixth matchup between QBs selected in the 2024 draft class, with Michael Penix Jr. (knee) expected to return against one of the top MVP candidates in Drake Maye. New England has faced and will face one of the easiest schedules of all time, but they still look like a legit good team. Atlanta struggled mightily on offense last week against a pathetic Dolphins defense as Kirk Cousins looked miserable. Getting Penix and WR1 Drake London (hip) back for this one will be significant, although Penix has struggled on the road compared to at home so far in his young career.

8 - Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

This is one of the more highly anticipated matchups as it's the only game between two division leaders for the week. The Steelers' defense is reeling right now, allowing 33 points to the Bengals in Week 7 and then 35 in Week 8 against the Packers. It's only the third time in the Mike Tomlin era that he has allowed 33 points or more in back-to-back weeks.

The other two occurrences came in 2013 and 2021. His defenses have bounced back in the following weeks both times, allowing 19 points to the Jackson-led Ravens in 2021 and holding the Geno Smith-led Jets to six points in 2013, although that game also came after a bye week. However, this is a uniquely different challenge for Tomlin as the 2025 Colts have been one of the best offenses of all time through eight weeks.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 9

7 - Jacksonville at Las Vegas

Both teams enter this matchup well-rested, coming off a bye. The last game for both teams was also a total disaster, with the Jaguars losing 35-7 to the Rams in London and the Raiders putting up one of the most feeble efforts in recent memory with a 31-0 loss at the Chiefs. But the game does at least feature a pair of standout second-year pass catchers and promising rookie skill players on each side, with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brock Bowers, along with Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty.

6 - Seattle at Washington

Seattle is off their bye week, while Jayden Daniels (hamstring) is expected to return for this elite uniform matchup on Sunday Night Football after missing last week's game against the Chiefs. Daniels has made two starts on Sunday night and is 2-0. Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald has an unbelievable 9-1 record on the road in his season and a half in Seattle, with the one loss coming in Week 4 last season in Detroit on Monday night.

America is not ready for the Seahawks-Commanders throwback battle on SNF this week 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ixrk8BCxoI

— Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) October 29, 2025

They've played two other road night games since last season, both coming on Thursday night. Seattle scored only six points and beat Chicago 6-3 in Week 17 last season, and beat Arizona 23-20 earlier this season on a walk-off field goal. They played on Sunday Night Football once at home last season and lost 30-13 to Green Bay.

5 - San Francisco at New York Giants

San Francisco is one of the most injured teams in the league once again, while the Giants have also had major injuries to their two best skill players, in Malik Nabers (knee) and Cam Skattebo (ankle). The 49ers need a win to keep pace in the loaded NFC West. Their next two matchups after this week are against divisional opponents, before hitting a soft spot in the schedule with a three-game stretch versus the Panthers, Browns, and Titans.

4 - Chicago at Cincinnati

Joe Flacco's status is up in the air for Week 9, which could leave the Bengals relying on backup Jake Browning again. The Bears, however, lost to a backup QB last week in Baltimore with Tyler Huntley at the helm. It could be a game where Chicago continues to establish their ground game against a Cincinnati run defense that's the only team to allow over 1,000 rushing yards to opposing running backs this season.

3 - Dallas vs. Arizona

Jacoby Brissett is slated to make another start as Kyler Murray (foot) is still dealing with his injury. Brissett has looked comfortable in the starter's role and should have success against the Dallas defense. The Cowboys' offense is coming off its clunkiest game of the year, while the defense continues to bleed out.

2 - Houston vs. Denver

This one could be a rock fight. Both defenses rank in the top three in EPA/Play, while each offense is coming off one of its best performances of the season. Denver put up 44 points and posted a 58% offensive success rate, both the highest marks of their season. Houston hummed without their top two wide receivers, scoring 26 points with a 49% success rate against a banged-up 49ers defense. It's currently the only game with a total set in the 30s (39.5).

1 - Kansas City at Buffalo

Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. An annual tradition both in the regular season and playoffs. The Chiefs are off a short week after a three-score win on Monday night against Washington, and the Bills crushed the Panthers on the road 40-9. Mahomes is 1-4 against Allen in the regular season, compared to a perfect 4-0 in the playoffs.

Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes meet for 10th time Sunday
Stats thru 9 games head to head:

Mahomes
224-325, 2723 combined yds, 22 total TDs, 5 wins
Allen
209-333, 2690 combined yds, 24 total TDs, 4 wins pic.twitter.com/PFDxDwxzL9

— Thad Brown (@thadbrown7) October 29, 2025

We have a small sample of what the Chiefs look like with their full cast of weapons, and it's a terrifying thought for the rest of the league. It arguably looks like the most complete team that Mahomes has had, while the Bills continue to lose key pieces on defense with star DT Ed Oliver (biceps) placed on injured reserve. But Allen is still Allen on the other side, and James Cook had the most rushing yards of any RB in a game last week against the Panthers. We should be in for another classic.

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