NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

November 21, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season. There were multiple exciting games and performances from Week 11, including two of the top matchups coming down to the last play with field goal attempts, with the Broncos walking off the Chiefs 22-19, and the Seahawks coming up short after Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal as time expired to lose 21-19 to the Rams. We also had two of the four highest single-game passing yard performances this season, with Bryce Young throwing for 448 yards and Jacoby Brissett making history with 47 completions for 452 yards.

Sticking in Week 11 for a moment, five teams posted their best offensive success rates of the season (MIA, ATL, DAL, JAX, and SF), while two had their lowest (DET, LAR). Now looking to Week 12, the 5-5 Kansas City Chiefs head back home for a pivotal matchup against the Colts after dropping two road games in a row. There is also an unreasonable amount of buzz for a matchup between two 2-8 teams in the Browns at Raiders, with rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders set to make his first career start.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 12.

Week 12 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

14 - Seattle at Tennessee

Perhaps one of the bigger mismatches of the season will be the Seattle defense against the Tennessee offense. The Seahawks just held MVP candidate Matthew Stafford to his lowest yards per pass attempt in a game (4.6) since joining the Rams in 2022. Rookie quarterback Cameron Ward had two games with a yards per pass attempt below 4.6 this season, tied for the most in the league. The old Sam Darnold reared its head last week against the Rams with four back-breaking interceptions, but he gets a low-leverage bounce-back spot.

13 - Baltimore vs. New York Jets

It appears Tyrod Taylor will be getting the start this week for the Jets, not that it makes much of a difference. The Ravens have won all three games since Lamar Jackson returned in Week 9, but they haven't been the prettiest. The defense has rounded into form at least while Jackson and the offense find their footing. Baltimore also owns the Jets historically, with a 10-2 record.

12 - Detroit vs. New York Giants

Detroit got a brutal Jared Goff game last week in Philadelphia, posting the worst completion percentage (37.8%) in a game this season by a starting quarterback. Still, the Lions stand as the fourth-best 6-4 team since 1978 per Aaron Schatz's DVOA metric. Plus, they have won 13 games in a row coming off a loss. The Giants lost to the Packers in Mike Kafka's first game as interim head coach, but will get Jaxson Dart (concussion) back in Week 12.

11 - New England at Cincinnati

The Patriots have won eight straight games and have crushed bad teams this season. Drake Maye and the New England offense should have their way versus this porous Bengals defense. However, Joe Flacco had Mike Vrabel's number in their two meetings against each other, winning 21-0 in 2018 with the Ravens and 16-0 in 2019 with the Broncos.

Want to see Joe Burrow running? Here’s Joe Burrow running.

Burrow will participate in 11-on-11 drills today for the first time since undergoing toe surgery in September. pic.twitter.com/Hb9Y08QUIC

— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) November 19, 2025

New England won't be shut out, and Cincinnati will be without wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (suspension), but Joe Burrow (toe) practiced in full Wednesday, and the window may be open for him to return on Sunday.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 12 Pick 'Em Pools

10 - Green Bay vs. Minnesota

J.J. McCarthy continues to look like the worst starting quarterback in the league, while the Packers continually play down to their competition and scrape by bad teams. Brian Flores and the Vikings defense also have maintained an absurd blitz rate in their recent stretch of games, blitzing at least 40% of the time in their past five games and at least 50% in four of the five.

"One thing #Vikings fans can look for, when he gets to the top of his drops, we're really trying to see if we can get him to be a little bit more in a repeatable body position." - Head Coach Kevin O'Connell on QB J.J. McCarthy

📺: https://t.co/0KSHZusFen pic.twitter.com/8bWb1ugFbo

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 18, 2025

Jordan Love has three games this season where the opposing defense blitzed him at a 40% rate or higher, and he's been exceptional. In those games, Love has completed 71.1% of his passes for 280 yards per game with a 9.2 yards per attempt and a stellar 0.363 EPA/Dropback while taking only two sacks on 31 pressures.

9 - San Francisco vs. Carolina

The 49ers and Panthers face off on Monday Night Football in a matchup with real playoff implications. The Panthers sit at 6-5 after Young had the best game of his career in Week 11 at Atlanta, throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns. Now, the third-year quarterback gets to face the team that just gave up an NFL record 47 completions for 452 yards last week against Brissett. San Francisco returned multiple key starters in Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall, and looks primed to make a late-season run with a favorable schedule.

8 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay

The Rams' offense had been humming, scoring at least 34 points in three straight before coming to a halt against Seattle last week, but still came out with the critical win in a tight NFC West division race. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, allowed 44 points last week to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

COOP.@RamsNFL AT THE 10 YARD LINE. WOW.

📺: #LARvsTB on NBC
📱: https://t.co/6Hz1DjFj3t pic.twitter.com/PvQs7G5xKL

— NFL (@NFL) January 23, 2022

It's the most points allowed in a game by a Todd Bowles defense since joining the team as the defensive coordinator in 2019, and the fifth 40-point game, according to Stathead. It's a big game for the Bucs on Sunday Night Football with the Panthers right on their tails for the lead in the NFC South. This will be the second time these two teams have faced off since their iconic playoff game in the 2021 season.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 12

7 - Las Vegas vs. Cleveland

Sanders makes his first career NFL start in this matchup, which has created plenty of excitement, but he was pretty dreadful in relief of Dillon Gabriel (concussion) last week, completing four of 16 passes for 47 yards and taking two sacks for a loss of 27 yards. It could be a game filled with sacks, with Geno Smith facing off against Myles Garrett and the stout Browns defense on the other side. Smith has taken at least four sacks in half his games played this season, while Garrett has racked up 10 sacks in the past three games.

Browns QB Shedeur Sanders on being 42nd starter since 1999. Said he believes he can be the guy and knows the pressure that comes with it. pic.twitter.com/GNpTAtg50M

— Scott Petrak ct (@ScottPetrak) November 19, 2025

6 - Jacksonville at Arizona

Jacksonville crushed the Chargers last week and had one of the best offensive performances of the season by success rate (61.4%). It is one of just five games this season with a success rate above 60%, and Arizona just allowed the 49ers to post their best success rate of the season at 56.1%. The Jaguars, sitting at 6-4, could make things interesting in the AFC South if they continue stacking wins with how tough the Colts' schedule is the rest of the season.

5 - Philadelphia at Dallas

Philadelphia's defense looks like it is back to being one of the single best units in the league. They've allowed just 16 points in the past two weeks and held the opposing quarterbacks to a combined 46.6% completion rate. Only the Texans' defense has put up similar levels of dominance over a two-game span this season (17 points allowed, 45.5% completion rate in Weeks 4-5).

Kelly Green Week 🤝 Dallas Week pic.twitter.com/4KwnFYBvuL

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 18, 2025

Dallas destroyed the Raiders last Monday night, and the trade deadline acquisition of Quinnen Williams, along with the return of linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and rookie cornerback Shavon Revel, makes their defense a bit more interesting. However, the Eagles will be rocking their Kelly Green uniforms on the road for the first time since 1995. They are undefeated in those uniforms since they returned in 2023.

4 - New Orleans vs. Atlanta

What a brutal week for the Falcons. Along with a home overtime loss to the Panthers to drop them to 3-7, Michael Penix Jr. (knee) is out for the season, and Drake London (knee) is listed as week-to-week. Kirk Cousins will make his second start of the season in New Orleans, the site of his only career playoff win. The Saints are on extra rest with the Week 11 bye and have won three straight games against the Falcons at home.

3 - Buffalo at Houston

This is an enticing Thursday night matchup. Allen is coming off a monster six-touchdown day in a win over Tampa Bay and is a pristine 8-0 on Thursdays. However, Allen is 0-3 at Houston, and the Bills haven't won at Houston since 2006 and are averaging just 15.6 points per game while also never reaching 20 points, per Kevin Massare on X. On the Houston side, Davis Mills will make his third start in place of C.J. Stroud (concussion).

Mills has one career start against Buffalo in Week 4 of the 2021 season, and it was one of the worst performances by a quarterback in recent memory. He completed 11 of 21 passes for 87 yards with four interceptions and three sacks. His -4.43 adjusted yards per attempt is the fifth lowest in a game by a quarterback with at least 20 pass attempts since 2000, according to Stathead.

2 - Chicago vs. Pittsburgh

Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers (wrist) is unlikely to play in this game to reach 30 career games against his former division rival. Mason Rudolph is expected to start in his place. Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh defense will be another good challenge for Caleb Williams and company after struggling last week versus the Vikings, but finding a way to win again to stand alone in first place in the NFC North with a 7-3 record.

Any extra incentive for Aaron Rodgers to play this weekend given then opponent — the Chicago Bears?

Rodgers: “There’s incentive for every opponent, but I have enjoyed many a Sunday and Monday and Thursdays in that city. It’s a great sports town, phenomenal sports fans …” pic.twitter.com/UfKVkaMC2i

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) November 19, 2025

Both teams have been on the positive end of tight games this season, each holding a 4-1 record in one-score contests. Tomlin is 3-0 against quarterbacks from the 2024  draft class, defeating the Broncos and Commanders last season and handing the Patriots one of their two losses this year. Chicago is a 2.5-point favorite, and it's likely a game they will need with the most games against .500 teams or better remaining on the schedule.

1 - Kansas City vs. Indianapolis

The Chiefs are a better team than their 15-1 version last season by almost every metric, yet they sit at 5-5, and their nine-year reign of the AFC West appears to be coming to an end. After benefitting from good fortune in many situations last season, the law of averages has swung hard in the other direction this year.

The Colts are one of only two teams that Patrick Mahomes has a below .500 record against (1-2). But he's also a career 5-0 in the games following back-to-back losses. The Colts are off the bye and begin a tough stretch of games that features every team with a .500 record or better. And we've started to see some cracks in Daniel Jones' armor in his past two games, taking 12 sacks with four interceptions and three lost fumbles after taking only nine sacks with three picks and zero lost fumbles in the first eight games.

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