NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 10) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

November 6, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season. As the calendar flipped to November, both the top teams in the NFC and AFC lost in Week 9, with the Packers losing 16-13 as 12.5-point favorites at home to the Panthers on a walk-off Ryan Fitzgerald field goal, and the Colts falling flat at Pittsburgh, losing 27-20. And again, Josh Allen and the Bills took down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for the fifth time in the regular season.

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and the second half of the season upon us, Week 10 has a handful of pivotal matchups. All four NFC West teams face off this week, which, as it currently stands, has the most combined wins of any division in the league (21). Then, there are some expected dud games, with the 2-6 Browns facing the 1-7 Jets, who just traded away their whole team, and a rematch of last year's NFC Divisional Round matchup between Washington and Detroit, but the Commanders have been a shell of themselves this season.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 10.

Week 10 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

14 - Buffalo at Miami

The Week 3 matchup on Thursday Night Football between these two teams was a close one, but the Bills pulled away at the end and won 31-21. The game was tied at 21 in the fourth quarter, but Miami committed a brutal roughing the kicker penalty after getting a stop with about 10 minutes remaining, which led to a Buffalo touchdown. The Bills have defeated the Dolphins in seven straight meetings and should roll again here.

13 - Detroit at Washington

The rematch of one of the NFC Divisional Round matchups last season has lost some buzz. Washington lost star quarterback Jayden Daniels (elbow) for an indefinite period of time last week, and the defense is reeling on the other side. Meanwhile, Detroit is also coming off a home loss to the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings. Brian Flores and the Vikings defense bottled up the Lions offense, holding them to their lowest success rate of the season (34%). But the Washington defense just let Sam Darnold throw for a perfect passer rating in the first half en route to a dominant 38-14 victory. Detroit should have its way offensively.

#Lions QB Jared Goff says there’s some “added motivation” to beat the Commanders after losing to them in the playoffs last year. “That’s definitely a part of it, absolutely. I think more than that, we want to get off of a losing streak here and get a W,” he said. pic.twitter.com/j24X3N7v0l

— Eric Woodyard (@E_Woodyard) November 5, 2025

12 - Denver vs. Las Vegas

Denver is now tied with New England and Indianapolis for the most wins in the league this season, while the Raiders showed some promise in their overtime loss to the Jaguars in Week 9, mostly related to Brock Bowers. Now, the Raiders are off an overtime game and on a short week on Thursday night at Mile High Stadium, where the Broncos are undefeated this season.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 10 Pick 'Em Pools

11 - Seattle vs. Arizona

Both teams are fresh off dominant victories on the road against NFC East teams. Seattle and Arizona played once earlier this season in Week 4 on Thursday night, where Seattle won on a walk-off field goal. That game came with Kyler Murray as the starter, but after being placed on IR on Wednesday with a foot injury, it will be Jacoby Brissett again for a pivotal divisional matchup. Seattle has owned Arizona head-to-head recently, winning eight straight.

10 - Indianapolis vs. Atlanta (Germany)

The Matt Ryan Bowl. After two weeks without an international game, we return in Week 10 with a pretty exciting matchup in Berlin, Germany. The Colts turned it over six times in their second loss of the season at Pittsburgh in Week 9, then went out and made a blockbuster trade for Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. And Atlanta arguably should have pulled off the win at New England last week, but a missed extra point near the end of the game led to a 24-23 loss.

9 - Carolina vs. New Orleans

Carolina pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season as 12.5-point underdogs last week at Green Bay. They have established an identity with a strong defense and run game through Rico Dowdle while trying to hide Bryce Young's deficiencies as much as possible. Carolina is now 5-4 despite being underdogs in all nine games. For the Saints, Tyler Shough wasn't bad in his first NFL start despite a 34-10 loss to the Rams, but they ran just 40 offensive plays.

RYAN FITZGERALD KICKS TO WIN IT pic.twitter.com/kPIeXJGZeR

— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 2, 2025

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 10

8 - Chicago vs. New York Giants

The Bears and Bengals played one of the weirdest games of the year in Week 9, featuring a remarkable eight lead changes. Chicago pulled out the win 47-42 to get to 5-3 for the first time since 2018. The Giants defense has been bad this season despite the praise of their front four. They rank 30th in EPA/play through nine games. Caleb Williams' two best games of the season came against the Cowboys and Bengals, who rank 31st and 32nd, respectively, on defense. Jaxson Dart looks great, at least.

7 - Baltimore at Minnesota

Both teams returned their rightful Week 1 starting quarterbacks last week and earned much-needed road victories. Lamar Jackson threw four TDs in his return against Miami, while McCarthy looked promising, but also only threw for 143 yards. A key storyline to follow in this one will be how Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores approaches his matchup with Jackson after gaming up the Lions last week en route to a win. These two teams have faced off only seven times in league history, and the Ravens are 0-2 at Minnesota.

6 - Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco

One of the more surprising outcomes of the season occurred between these two teams on Thursday Night Football in Week 5, when the totally injury-ravaged 49ers pulled out an overtime win in Los Angeles. They meet again five weeks later, and the Rams look like one of the best teams in football on both sides. The Rams are again sizable favorites, by 4.5 points on the road. HC Sean McVay has just a 1-7 record against Kyle Shanahan as a favorite over their last eight matchups. Another McVay vs. Shanahan duel that is always worth the price of admission.

A doink for the lead!
The Rams now get the ball 🔜

SFvsLAR on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BqGswfAmtM

— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2025

5 - Cleveland at New York Jets

Both teams are fresh off a bye, and the Jets are fresh off a fire sale of their two best defensive players, Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. They did at least secure their first win of the year before their bye. Cleveland's defense is still great, but it hasn't been as stout away from home.

4 - Jacksonville at Houston

C.J. Stroud (concussion) will not be able to play in this one, leaving backup Davis Mills to make a spot start. Mills wasn't great in relief last week against an elite Denver defense, but he'll have a full week to prepare for his first start since the 2022 season. Jacksonville is off an overtime win in Las Vegas and now heads on the road again for a big game in the AFC South.

3 - Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh took down the mighty Colts in Week 9 as Indianapolis more so beat itself, committing six turnovers. But the defense made huge plays when it needed them and made Daniel Jones uncomfortable all game, while Aaron Rodgers managed the game effectively. The Chargers took care of business at Tennessee, handily winning a game that they were supposed to. These two teams faced off in Pittsburgh in Week 3 of last season, with the Steelers holding Justin Herbert and the offense to just 166 total yards in a 20-10 win.

2 - Tampa Bay vs. New England

The Tom Brady Bowl. Tampa Bay is off a bye while New England is red hot after winning six straight. This will be one of the Patriots' toughest games remaining on the schedule, with the Bills as the only opponent in future weeks with a winning record. The last time these two teams faced off was in October 2021, where, for the first and only time in his career, Brady defeated the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

Top-12 in total adjusted EPA

Dak Prescott still first on high volume. Drake Maye next pic.twitter.com/nmncBfLHS0

— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) November 5, 2025

1 - Green Bay vs. Philadelphia

This is a rematch of last year's Wild Card matchup, where Philadelphia mostly dominated the game, winning 22-10. The Eagles are off their bye week, while the Packers are coming off their second inexcusable loss of the season at home against the Panthers. Jordan Love shines brightest in home night games, with a 4-1 career record at Lambeau Field. There will be heavy playoff vibes in this one as two NFC contenders face off on Monday Night Football.

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