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Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets on Saturday 1/3/25. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.
For the final week of the NFL regular season, the league has flexed two very important games to Saturday, giving us a pretty great two-game slate where we can be assured that all teams involved will be giving max effort and playing their starters for the duration.
The Bucs and Panthers will be battling for the NFC South title and the final remaining playoff spot in the NFC. The Panthers can lock it up with a win, while the Bucs will need a win and a Falcons loss to the Saints to claim the title because of tiebreaker rules. Meanwhile, the Niners and Seahawks are playing for the NFC West title and the top seed in the NFC. The winner gets a bye, while the loser will have to go on the road in the Wild Card round.
I want to take this opportunity to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for the Xmas triple-header on Novig!
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus
Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.
You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!
You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NFL Picks Against the Spread
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-107 NOVIG)
These two teams meet for the second time this season, but have not faced each other since Week 1, when the Niners pulled out a close 17-13 win in Seattle. Now, the Niners are slight underdogs at home in the rematch despite getting healthy and playing some of their best football of the season lately.
I still have a hard time not backing Seattle here. I know there will be Sam Darnold doubters based on how his season in Minnesota ended last year; however, he's had a fantastic season, and this team has one of the best, most balanced rosters in the NFL. Seattle can run the football, throw the football, and is equipped with one of the best defenses in the game.
The Niners have a prolific offense, but their defense has been a major weakness. They gave up 38 points to the Bears last week in a shootout and will have their hands full trying to slow down this balanced Seattle attack.
In a game that will have a playoff atmosphere, I have to go with the team that has the better defense, and that has also been the more consistent team all season. I'm backing Seattle to cover on the road and lock up that number one seed. Darnold exercises his demons, and this Seahawks team wins its first big game in what could be a run to the Super Bowl.
NFL Passing Prop Bets
Sam Darnold OVER 240.5 Passing Yards (-117 NOVIG)
Let's keep talking about Sammy D, who is now only the fifth quarterback to win 13 games in back-to-back seasons. The other four guys are Hall-of-Famers and did it with the same teams, while Darnold has now led two different teams to huge seasons in the last two years.
Seattle has one of the most lethal passing attacks in football, and it's all predicated on the use of a play-action-heavy system that creates matchups that their receivers can win. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the best receiver in the league this year and is an incredibly tough cover, while Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed are both experienced veterans who complement each other quite well. Kupp is a master of winning in the slot on short and mid-range routes, while Shaheed is a burner who can hit a homerun with a deep ball or take a wide receiver screen to the house after the catch.
Darnold has gone over this prop in 10 of 16 games this season and three of his last four. Last week, the Seahawks got a lead in the third quarter and throttled it down, running the ball for the remainder of the second half to salt away that win over Carolina. With the Niners likely scoring plenty of points this week, we should see Seattle forced to air it out more, and I expect Darnold to take advantage of this San Francisco secondary that ranks 25th in DVOA pass defense.
Rushing Prop Bets
Bucky Irving OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards (-117 NOVIG)
This feels like a big Bucky bounce-back incoming (say that five times fast!) The Bucs' starting running back managed just 9-19 against Miami last week, while Tampa fell behind early and was forced to pass the ball far more often than they wanted to. But expect Tampa to commit to the run this week against Carolina, which ranks just 25th in DVOA rush defense.
Bucky Irving runs in for the Tampa TD!
📺: #TBvsCAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/wycKzZwwdw— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024
Bucky handled 19 carries for 71 yards against the Panthers just two weeks ago, and went over 100 yards in both of his games against Carolina last season. He's had a rocky 2025 campaign, but he's healthy and is in a good position to have a big game as the featured runner for the Bucs. The recipe for beating the Panthers is to run the football against them and try to get out in front early, so I expect a healthy dose of Bucky in this one, and he is talented enough to break off a few big runs and salt this prop away sometime in the third quarter.
NFL Receiving Prop Bets
Ricky Pearsall OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards (-102 NOVIG)
The Seahawks have the top-ranked run defense in football. They held Christian McCaffrey to just 67 yards in their first meeting and have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. I expect the Niners to air it out often in this one to move the chains, and after missing a huge chunk of the season with injuries, Pearsall is trending up at just the right time.
Pearsall has been targeted 15 times over his last two games, resulting in 6-96 (against the Titans) and 5-85 (against the Bears). When he's healthy, he's Brock Purdy's preferred target between him and Jauan Jennings. This is a very low number for Pearsall, who is averaging nearly 15 yards per reception this season. He's also averaging 58.7 yards per game and has a hit rate of 66% on this prop. Grab this prop now, as I am very confident that it will only increase between now and tomorrow night.
George Kittle OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-117 NOVIG)
Kittle and Pearsall are both technically questionable for this game, but both are fully expected to play for the Niners in this high-stakes matchup.
George Kittle "Absolutely" Expects to Play in Week 18 https://t.co/wDr1z9FP6i
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) January 1, 2026
Kittle is set to return from a one-game absence and resume his role as one of Purdy's favorite weapons. Kittle has enjoyed a massive second half and has gone over this yardage prop in six straight games. Seattle has struggled against the TE position this year, so the matchup is perfect, and the volume should be there, as I mentioned earlier, that the Seattle defense should force the Niners to go with a pass-heavy approach.
Anytime Touchdown Bets
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+160 NOVIG)
While I love Irving's rushing prop, I am going to pivot over to Mike Evans as the Buccaneer that I think is most likely to score a touchdown. Tampa has struggled to punch it in with their run game inside the five-yard line, but luckily, they have one of the best red zone receivers in recent league history who can throw to on fades or slants.
Evans caught a one-yard TD pass last week to give him two weeks in a row with a touchdown. Look for him to continue to be Baker Mayfield's top target down near the goal line. He leads all Tampa receivers with a 29% red zone target share this season.
A.J. Barner Anytime Touchdown (+182 NOVIG)
The Seahawks tight end has found paydirt two weeks in a row and now has seven touchdowns on the season. His 20% red zone target share trails only JSN on the team, and the Niners have allowed the fifth-most receiving touchdowns to the tight end position this season.
