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Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets on Christmas Day. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.
Christmas Day brings us a triple-header of NFL action, and even if these aren't marquee matchups, there's still plenty of good betting opportunities. Don't act like you're not going to watch these games; we both know that you'll be tuning in once the presents are opened and meals have been served!
I want to take this opportunity to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for the Christmas Day games.
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for the Xmas triple-header on Novig!
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus
Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.
You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!
You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
For example, if you set the odds of the Panthers to win on Sunday at +150, then anyone can flip the bet and take the Buccaneers to win at -150 on their end.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NFL Picks Against the Spread
Detroit Lions (-6.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-130 NOVIG)
This line has moved to -7 or -7.5 nearly everywhere, but I'm going to take advantage of the opportunity to buy it at 6.5 with a bit more juice attached. That last point can make or break the bet, and no one wants to lose on the hook with a stupid half point if the team they predict to win does so, but by only one clean touchdown.
The Lions are in a must-win game to keep their now slim playoff hopes alive and will be facing a Max Brosmer-led Vikings team now that starter J.J. McCarthy has been ruled out. While the Lions have been anything but a sure thing this season, I think they have enough firepower on offense to create some distance between themselves and the Vikings, especially if we downgrade Minnesota substantially on offense under Brosmer.
NFL Passing Prop Bets
Jared Goff OVER 240.5 Passing Yards (-117 NOVIG)
Goff has eclipsed this number in nine straight starts, including a 284-yard passing game against Minnesota back on November 2. I think we have to come to terms with the fact that this Detroit offense has had a real change of identity this season, as they have had to throw the ball far more than they did in the last two seasons for a few reasons.
One of those reasons is that they are not running the ball as effectively on early downs and therefore are ending up in more second and third-and-long situations. The second reason would be that their defense has been giving up too many points and forcing the offense to play catch-up with a pass-heavy game script.
Even if they're playing from in front in this one, I still think Goff should be able to find success against this zone-heavy pass defense, and we know that Dan Campbell won't take his foot off the gas either - Detroit will pour it on and try to score as many points as possible. Goff is playing some great football this year, and there's no reason to think that he's going to slow down this week.
Rushing Prop Bets
Javonte Williams OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards (+100 NOVIG)
I expect Dallas to get back to the running game this week. Last week's loss to the Chargers was the first time that Williams had single-digit carries and was mainly a product of a negative game script, as the team was playing from behind the entire second half.
The Cowboys are touchdown favorites in this matchup against the Commanders and likely to follow the blueprint for success against this Commanders defense that they followed when they beat them back in October. In that game, Williams handled 19 carries and turned them into 116 yards and a touchdown.
Dallas has a top-10 rushing offense, and the Commanders continue to be leaky up front, ranking 22nd (DVOA) against the run and allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
NFL Receiving Prop Bets
Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 6.5 Receptions (-117 NOVIG)
St. Brown was unusually quiet last week, snagging just four of nine targets in the Lions' loss. However, I don't see that happening this week. St. Brown is tremendous against zone coverage and has mastered the art of finding the soft spots in zones where Goff can find him for short completions that help keep the chains moving.
We have evidence of that in that ARSB caught 9 of 13 targets for 97 yards against Minnesota in their first meeting. I expect him to get a heavy workload this week as Detroit leans on its Pro Bowl wideout as the first option on offense in this spot.
Courtland Sutton OVER 4.5 Receptions (-135 NOVIG)
I am surprised we can still get Sutton at such a low number, although there's certainly some juice attached to this prop, rightfully so, as Sutton has been a target monster in this Denver offense for the last month.
Sutton has caught five or more balls in four straight games and now has three straight weeks with double-digit targets. The Chiefs may be fading here late in the season, but their run defense is still their strength, and I would expect the Broncos to have to utilize the passing game to move the ball down the field consistently. Sutton is clearly eating first in this offense, and I'd be really surprised if his quarterback, Bo Nix, doesn't feed him early and often in this one.
Anytime Touchdown Bets
Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+160 NOVIG)
Ferguson has seen his involvement in the offense tail off here at the end of the season. This is a pretty good spot for him to get back into the mix, as the Commanders have been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the tight end position.
Washington has allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, and Ferguson's 22% Red Zone target share trails only CeeDee Lamb in this Dallas offense. We are getting much better odds on Ferguson here than any of the other main offensive weapons on Dallas, likely only because he hasn't found paydirt over the last five weeks.
