Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly Traded to Dodgers: Fantasy Baseball Impact

July 29, 2023

Kev M. analyzes the trade that the Chicago White Sox made that sent Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers for prospects in return.

The Dodgers are one of the better teams in the league at taking on reclamation projects and correcting their issues while the White Sox of late, despite their efforts to try and become more of an "analytic" organization, have struggled. Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly combined for an egregious amount of runs allowed in 2023. They are both potential free agents after this season and of no use to a White Sox team waving their white flag.

This trade makes a ton of sense for both teams as the Dodgers are struggling to fill back-end starts weekly due to injuries along with overwhelmed rookie pitchers and the White Sox are desperate to fill their lackluster farm system.

Kev Mahserejian takes on the fallout and fantasy impact of this Dodgers/White Sox trade. For any questions/concerns, find him on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon).

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Trade Details

Dodgers Acquire: RHP Lance Lynn, RHP Joe Kelly

The Dodgers targeted significant needs here with a consistent middle-rotation starter along with a veteran high-leverage reliever who is throwing as hard as ever. Lynn would likely start the third or fourth game of a playoff series come October and helps immediately as the Dodgers could not stomach rolling out Emmett Sheehan as a starter this season anymore. While Lynn and Kelly possess ERAs that rank towards league-worst in their respective roles among those qualified, peripheral numbers are quite favorable on both.

White Sox Acquire: RHP Nick Nastrini, RHP Jordan Leasure, and OF Trayce Thompson

The White Sox are fully committed to a youth movement as Lynn and Kelly were not the only pieces traded recently. Veterans Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez had just been dealt to the Angels days prior. This Lynn/Kelly trade netted them more prospects to keep kicking that "contention window" down the line (and old friend Trayce Thompson). Nastrini is the prize of this deal as he has an immediate case as the White Sox's top pitching prospect. Leasure, despite being a reliever, is quite a get as well given his filthy stuff (++fastball/+slider) and success in double-A.

Fantasy Baseball Impact

Lance Lynn in L.A.

Lynn's league-worst ERA is an obvious eyesore sitting at 6.47 through 21 starts. However, he is underperforming to an extreme degree as his xFIP sits at 4.02 and SIERA at 3.92. Lynn *should* be playing at the level of an above-average starter in 2023 but some bad luck has held him back. A BABIP of .328 sits much higher than his career .300 while a 20.6% home run/flyball is about double his career rate.

What the Dodgers coveted in acquiring Lynn was an 18.5% K-BB which is actually above Lynn's career norm of 15.8%. He still has the stuff to get outs and hopefully, pitching in front of a defense that ranks 17th in OAA (Outs Above Average) rather than 28th could help.

If you roster Lynn in a league, continue to hold and hope the Dodgers get him right (assuming his underlying numbers stick, the turnaround should not be too difficult). If Lynn is available on your wire in a 12+ team league, he is worth the speculative add moving forward.

RP Joe Kelly Returns

Kelly, similar to Lynn, possesses a bloated ERA. Unfortunately, for White Sox fans, Kelly's ERA has been gaudy since signing. From 2022 to the present, Kelly's ERA is 5.59! This may seem unforgivable but when your left on-base rate is 60% (league average around 75% yearly) and BABIP is .358 (league average typically around .300 yearly) it is not surprising that Kelly struggled to convert clean innings.

Meanwhile, Kelly's xFIP in this period is a near-elite 3.12 while his K-BB is similarly high-end at 19.8%. Once again, like Lynn, Kelly's stuff does not seem to be the issue. Kelly is unlikely to make a fantasy impact given that he is not a closer but in Save+Hold leagues, there is value for someone like him who could generate Ks with a clean ERA moving forward.

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