Is It Already Time to Bail on the Bay? 49ers Fantasy Football Outlooks

September 14, 2022

Chris Gregory analyzes the slow start of the San Francisco 49ers and gives his thoughts on the fantasy values of Trey Lance and other offensive players going forward in the 2022 NFL season.

Considering the expectations for the San Francisco 49ers and the fantasy totals their players were projected to produce, Week 1 could not have gone much worse for their fans and investors. Playing on a field that had to be regularly squeegeed like a windshield covered in bugs, Trey Lance and company were disappointing in a surprising loss to a Bears team expected to struggle this year. The immediate backlash on Twitter and from many fantasy analysts was unsurprising.

As is the case in our immediate gratification generation, many headlines already wonder if Trey Lance should be benched or traded. Others casually toss around words like “awful” or “bust.” Some even take joy in Lance struggling, while many say the weather on Sunday doesn’t matter because “Jimmy Garoppolo won in frigid Green Bay during the playoffs,” or “[insert Hall of Fame QB name here] would’ve tossed four scores in that!”

While we think some fans and analysts are overreacting to a young quarterback and his offense struggling during a Week 1 monsoon, there are some legitimate concerns in San Fran. The best player on this Bears defense (Roquan Smith) was coming off a holdout, Khalil Mack was gone, and yet they held the 49ers to 155 yards passing. That has to be worrisome for fantasy managers, right? Well, let’s dig deeper and see just how troubling it is, shall we?

Stock Up or Down on Deebo Samuel?

Last season set unrealistic expectations for Deebo Samuel. His 2021 efficiency was unsustainable in a hybrid role we still cannot predict, especially given his history of injuries, drops, and fumbles. The odds were further stacked against Deebo’s fantasy prospects when he chose to “hold in” and not spend his offseason working with Trey Lance. When a young passer without much experience doesn’t get work with his star receiver, that can lead to early inconsistency.

Those inconsistency concerns bore fruit in Week 1, as Samuel dropped two passes while bringing in just two of eight targets for 14 yards. The drops, the lack of yardage, and the lack of efficiency (25% completion rate when targeted) are concerning. However, these things happen when a receiver known for drops (Samuel) lacks experience with his young quarterback. There is one big reason for optimism here, though. That is Samuel’s elite 28.5% target share in Week 1. If that continues, better days will follow.

Further concern heading into this season involved reports that Deebo didn't look in "game shape" during camp. While many have refuted those claims, several 49ers beat writers noted the wideback looked slower and took more plays off during practices than usual. However, whatever conditioning issues Samuel may have didn’t impact his snaps in Week 1. The former Gamecock’s 82% snap share was on par with his snap rate as a wide back in 2021.

Finally, entering this season there was the question of whether Deebo’s rushing role would continue, and whether it would impact his target share if it did. The early answers are yes and no, as Samuel took eight carries for a stellar 6.5 yards per tote while also leading his team in targets. While he had a costly fumble, Shanahan repeatedly called Deebo's number after that mistake.

Overall, fans should be encouraged by Deebo’s usage against the Bears, despite several miscues on his part. You'll likely be disappointed if you drafted him to be the overall WR3 in fantasy. However, he is currently on pace to get 130+ targets and 130+ rush attempts this year, which is elite usage if it keeps up. If he can maintain anything close to that rate, Samuel should finish as a low-end WR1 even if the 49ers’ passing game doesn’t improve significantly.

Panic Level: 2/10

Brandon Aiyuk: All That Work for Nothing?

While Deebo took this offseason to work on his contract, Brandon Aiyuk devoted himself to working with Lance. The two were reportedly inseparable in the spring, working together constantly. That work led to VERY positive camp reviews, with some saying Aiyuk looked like the best player in San Francisco's camp. The Arizona State product was Lance's favorite and most consistent target in practices.

That summer connection didn’t translate in Week 1, unfortunately. Despite playing an incredible 99% of the 49ers’ snaps on Sunday, Aiyuk saw just two targets that counted. This lack of involvement was confounding, considering the third-year receiver was efficient with his opportunities. The former Sun Devil registered an impressive 31-yard reception early, lost another 14-yard gain on a bogus offensive pass interference call, and gained at least seven yards on each of his touches. Despite all that, he only saw three official touches.

Aiyuk’s lack of involvement is concerning, especially considering George Kittle didn’t play. The hope is that Aiyuk was the victim of a conservative game plan built for poor weather, and Kyle Shanahan get him more involved moving forward. However, there is no question Deebo is the top weapon in this offense, and Kittle will make things murkier when he returns. Consider Aiyuk a DFS tournament flyer in Week 2, but his target share and Lance’s inconsistency make him a very dangerous play in 12-team leagues right now.

Panic Level: 7/10

Is There a Fantasy-Relevant Replacement for Elijah Mitchell?

Elijah Mitchell is expected to miss approximately two months with an MCL sprain. That puts his return date in November. In his absence, three backs are competing for immediate snaps and the opportunity to steal touches from Mitchell once he is back.

As of now, Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance are the favorites to lead this team in rushing. However, the projected leader in backfield snaps is Jeff Wilson Jr. The North Texas product was the only true running back to get a touch against the Bears other than Mitchell, and he’s well versed in the Shanahan scheme. However, the team clearly doesn’t consider Wilson their ideal lead back, which is why they’ve drafted three RBs in the past two years. There’s a solid chance a rookie steals significant touches from Wilson by October.

Many will consider Tyrion Davis-Price the leading candidate to steal from Wilson, thanks to the LSU product’s pedigree. Unfortunately, TDP has looked largely ineffective in the preseason, and he was a healthy scratch in Week 1. That’s why we like Jordan Mason as the high upside flyer in this backfield. Mason was not only active against Chicago, but he showed better hands and burst than TDP this summer. If anyone on this roster can be the next Mitchell, our bet is it’s Mason.

To summarize our view of this backfield for the rest of the year, Wilson is the guy to add if you need a starter against a Seattle defense that allowed 5.2 yards per carry on Monday. If you want a cheaper flyer with more upside, we advocate adding Mason over TDP. However, the best running back on this team will continue to be a healthy Mitchell. The former Cajun has twice missed time with injuries, and Shanahan has fed him well after both. We expect that trend to continue unless a rookie truly blows up.

Panic Level for Mitchell: 4/10

Waiver Bid for Wilson: 7%

Waiver Bid for Mason: 3%

Waiver Bid for Tyrion Davis-Price: 1%

Worried About Kittle?

There isn't much to say about Kittle at this stage. If you drafted him, you knew he’d miss some time with an injury. The risk was built into his ADP. Many also faded Kittle because of Lance’s unpolished passing and the run-heavy nature of this offense. Nothing has changed on either of those fronts, either. So, you're playing Kittle whenever possible because he's an immensely talented player at the thinnest position in fantasy… even if you could lose him any time someone sneezes on him.

Panic Level: 2/10

An In-Depth Analysis of Trey Lance and His Fantasy Value

Breaking Down Lance’s Week 1 Film

While many have labeled Lance as “awful” or “garbage” in his Week 1 performance, that characterization is a bit lazy. Assessing Lance’s game against the Bears isn’t as easy as calling him a name and saying he played poorly. You have to dive into the tape before understanding his performance and what, if anything, it means going forward. So, let’s look at the tape and see what it says….

In the first half against Chicago, Lance adequately executed a conservative game plan. The team called a designed run on 57% of their plays, while Lance completed 60% of the throws he was allowed. Half of the team’s drives went at least 34 yards, and the North Dakota product showed anticipation and good ball placement on throws of 31 and 20 yards. While Lance missed badly on a would-be touchdown and an easy screen, he added 21 yards with his legs in the half and was precise on several deep routes.

On the first possession of the second half, Lance was again solid. He led a 68-yard drive, including a nice 44-yard strike. Unfortunately, he also took his second sack of the game, forcing the 49ers to settle for a field goal. After that drive, Lance had completed 63% of his passes in the game with 30 yards rushing and only two errant throws on film.

Unfortunately, it was here that the game turned on Lance and the 49ers. Soon after SF went up by 10, the Bears responded with two easy touchdowns that put Lance on his heels. After that, Lance threw an interception, several of his teammates committed costly penalties, and the weather turned awful. In fact, the rain was so heavy on Lance’s final two drives that television cameras struggled to find a clear view of the field. It was during this time that Lance looked his worst, accruing seven of his 15 incompletions.

Taking Lance’s past film (in college and 2021) together with his Week 1 tape, it’s clear he still has to work on his accuracy, especially on short crossing routes and screens. Lance also needs to work on his recognition, which is different than his processing ability. While Lance seems to move through his reads quickly and understand what he sees, he needs to see and anticipate more. His interception on Sunday came because Lance saw Eddie Jackson at mid-field and predicted the safety couldn’t close on his intended receiver, but Jackson did.

Overall, Lance’s Week 1 film suggests there is a lot more to like than people let on. The arm strength, running ability, and intelligence are all there, but the accuracy and recognition need work. Remember that Josh Allen was a 56% passer after two seasons, Steve Young had completed just 53% of his throws at age 27, the Chargers gave up on Drew Brees when he was just 25, and Peyton Manning threw 28 picks as a rookie. Some quarterbacks can develop better accuracy and understanding if given time.

Assessing Lance’s Redraft Value After Week 1

After an exhaustive look at Lance’s disappointing start to the season, it’s time to figure out how the film applies to his fantasy football outlook this season. After all, this guy disappointed significantly in Week 1… and he still accounted for more yards than the entire Bears offense. So there remains significant upside here. Can you gamble on that upside this week and the rest of the year, though? That is the question.

For Week 2 purposes, Lance could be a great DFS play if the price is right. Despite a gutsy Monday night performance, Seattle’s defense is a softer matchup for the 49ers than a Bears unit playing in bad weather. The Seahawks just lost their best blitzer (Jamal Adams), they are starting a raw rookie corner, and they just played their hearts out and still allowed Russell Wilson to complete 69% of his passes for 340 yards. If you drafted Lance as a starter, you should start him this week. His upside is worth the gamble.

Beyond Week 2, the fantasy picture gets murkier for Lance. He has tough matchups in Weeks 3 and 4 against the Broncos and the Rams. With his lack of consistency, most managers should plan on starting someone else in those matchups, even if the sophomore rebounds against Seattle. Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, and Ryan Tannehill are available in over 50% of leagues and have solid matchups through Week 5. By then, you should know if Lance can be your guy or if you need to trade for something better.

Panic Level for Redraft: 5/10

Assessing Lance’s Dynasty Value After Week 1

While we have concerns about Lance’s redraft value, we remain bullish on his dynasty outlook. Our film review makes that apparent. In fact, now may be the ideal time to buy Lance in Superflex dynasty leagues. Reach out to his managers and see if their expectations have lowered, because he’s still worth a pretty penny in that format. If I could afford it, I would package a future first with a couple of young talents for Lance and consider it good value in dynasty Superflex. Lance remains a top-12 option in most long-term leagues.

Panic Level for Dynasty: 2/10

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