Finding Homers and Strikeouts Throughout Fantasy Baseball Drafts

1 month ago by Jamie Steed

Throughout your fantasy baseball drafts, you will likely need to find certain categories as the draft progresses. To help you fill in those gaps, we're going to look at a dozen players who will help in home runs and strikeouts. These 12 players are all currently going after the midway point of standard 12-team drafts.

Although they are being overlooked, the batters will hit plenty of homers and the pitchers will strike out plenty of hitters. There may be some flaws in their game, but the power and strikeouts will mitigate them. The home runs and strikeouts also indirectly help elsewhere, making them more than just solo category players.

We'll be using the ATC projections (available at RotoBaller.com) to help us understand what is expected of the players. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X.

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Home Run Helpers

Jake Burger - 3B, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP - 151
ATC projection - 30 home runs

Burger was the Marlins' big acquisition at the trade deadline last year. After hitting 25 homers in 88 games for the White Sox, his power waned a bit in Miami. Burger hit nine home runs in 53 games following the trade to end the season with a .250/.309/.518 slash line, 34 homers, 80 RBI, 71 runs, and one stolen base.

Burger is expected to hit in the heart of the Miami lineup. Even on a team that lacks much offensive potency, that should still provide Burger with plenty of RBI and runs. Although the counting stats might not be quite what you'd hope for from a 30-homer hitter, the power will help with them. Among third basemen, Burger's 30 home runs rank third in ATC projections, making him a solid mid-round option for power.

Nolan Gorman - 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

NFBC ADP - 186
ATC projection - 28 home runs

Targeting someone who had chronic back issues last year might not seem ideal. We've heard the usual soundbites from Gorman's camp regarding him being in a better place health-wise. Even if you don't believe in that sort of thing, Gorman should not be disregarded. After all, he hit 27 homers in just 119 games last year.

#STLCards lefty Nolan Gorman said he has been working with a nutrition program that has increased his flexibility & decreased his back inflammation.

Gorman, who has battled back pain since a 2020 weight-lifting injury, wants to adhere to the program to play more games in 2024.

— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) January 14, 2024

ATC projects Gorman to hit 28 homers in 2024 (130 games). If he stays healthy, Gorman should be able to top 30 homers and could even near 40. Even if Gorman does only play ~130 games, you should be able to find a replacement off waivers for a few weeks and get a handful of homers from them. Gorman only needs to play 75% of the season to provide value at his current ADP, making him a perfect middle infield target for power.

Jack Suwinski - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP - 236
ATC projection - 24 home runs

Suwinski has emerged as a solid power source in fantasy over the last two seasons. In 250 games for the Pirates, the outfielder has hit 45 homers. The downside is he's also had a .215 batting average in that time. He makes up for it with a high walk rate (14.0% BB% in 2024), so he has more value in leagues counting walks. And Suwinski does have a bit of speed, too, stealing 13 bases last year.

The Pirates likely won't be prolific run scorers in 2024, although the returning Oneil Cruz should help them. That's why Suwinksi is projected for just 67 RBI and 64 runs. His projections are based on playing 127 games, given his struggles against left-handed pitching (LHP). If he's able to improve even slightly against LHP, Suwinski could reach 30 homers. If he doesn't, there's still solid power to be had in the later rounds of your drafts.

Nelson Velazquez - OF, Kansas City Royals

NFBC ADP - 276
ATC projection - 23 home runs

Velazquez is penciled in to be the Royals' regular designated hitter (DH) in 2024. With Salvador Perez also likely using the DH spot more, Velazquez will need to play the outfield to get enough at-bats to be relevant. Considering the Royals' options, that shouldn't be a problem and Velazquez is a strong candidate to play in more than the 102 games he's currently projected for.

The fact Velazquez is projected for 23 homers in 102 games tells us he has plenty of power. He hit 14 home runs in 44 games for the Royals following his trade from the Cubs last year. In 130 career MLB games, Velazquez has 30 homers. Albeit in a small sample, his 49.1% hard-hit% and 21.4% Barrel% last year were impressive. Needing only a late-round pick to draft Velazquez, you could be getting 30 homers for next to nothing in drafts.

Anthony Rizzo - 1B, New York Yankees

NFBC ADP - 280
ATC projection - 21 home runs

Rizzo's 2023 season can be broken down into three parts. The first saw him hit .304/.376/.505 with 11 homers in 53 games. Then came the collision at first base against San Diego, which saw Rizzo miss a few days. The second saw Rizzo return after a few days off and play 46 games. In that time, he hit a measly .172/.271/.225 with one home run. The third was when the Yankees placed Rizzo on the IL with post-concussion syndrome, ending his season.

It's not a stretch to believe Rizzo's struggles were down to the effects of that collision. He hit 32 homers in his first full season with the Yankees in 2022 and was on course for a repeat before that incident. He's projected for 120 games, but as long as Rizzo continues to show no ill effects of the concussion, he should top that. Hitting behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge is a prime spot and another 30+ homer season isn't beyond his capabilities.

Brent Rooker - OF, Oakland Athletics

NFBC ADP - 295
ATC projection - 25 home runs

Last year, Rooker had one of the quietest 30 home run seasons in recent history. He also hit a very respectable .246/.329/.488 in 137 games. Playing for the Athletics meant he only tallied 69 RBI and 61 runs in the process. But the power looks legit based on his underlying numbers.

Rooker's batting average isn't going to help you. But a ~.228 average (as ATC projects) isn't as harmful as it was a few years ago. The counting stats will also be lacking compared to other 30-homer hitters. However, Rooker is going in the last round of 12-team drafts. If you need a late boost of power for your team, Rooker is an ideal candidate.

Strikeout Stars

Mitch Keller - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP - 168
ATC projection - 174 strikeouts

It feels like we've been waiting for the Mitch Keller breakout for years. After a solid 2022 campaign in which Keller posted a 3.91 ERA (159.0 IP), he actually had something of a breakout last year. In 194.1 IP, Keller struck out 210 batters (25.5% K%). His 4.21 ERA doesn't look great and might turn off some people from drafting him. But his 3.70 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA suggest he should've had a sub-4.00 ERA.

Keller managed to tally 13 wins last year and the Pirates should be better this year. His 6.7% BB% ranked in the 76th percentile and helped him to a career-best 1.25 WHIP. Keller's projected for 174 strikeouts in 181.0 IP. If he matches last year's 9.73 K/9, he's in line for 195 strikeouts. Even with some regression, Keller should be a solid all-around contributor while putting up some very good strikeout numbers.

Nick Pivetta - SP/RP, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP - 182
ATC projection - 180 strikeouts

Like Keller, the Nick Pivetta breakout has been due for years. Pivetta switched between a starter role and the bullpen last year. This year, he's set to start in the Red Sox rotation. Although looking at last year's numbers suggests a relief role will be better suited.

Split	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Starter	87.0	4.66	1.22	28.7%	.234	.304	.450	.323
Reliever	55.2	3.07	0.97	35.3%	.166	.249	.322	.251

The reason there's optimism that Pivetta can stick in the rotation and thrive as a starter is how he ended 2023. His final five appearances were as a starter in which he had a 2.37 ERA (30.1 IP). He struck out 38 batters, partly down to a sweeper he began using following his relegation to the bullpen in May. If those late-season starts are a sign of things to come, Pivetta will be an excellent source of strikeouts and could be a breakout star in 2024.

Reid Detmers - SP, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP - 242
ATC projection - 163 strikeouts

While Detmers was unable to follow up his 2022 campaign (3.77 ERA in 129.0 IP), he did make a notable improvement. Detmers' 4.48 ERA (148.2 IP) was a disappointment last year, but he recorded a career-high 26.1% K%. His 168 strikeouts were tied for 34th most last year. Pivetta was the only pitcher to have totaled more strikeouts in fewer innings than Detmers managed.

Over the last two seasons, Detmers has had a 4.24 xFIP and 4.13 SIERA. That seems like a suitable expectation for Detmers' ERA in 2024 and ATC is projecting him for a 4.27 ERA. He's also being projected for 153.0 IP. Even if he matches projections, Detmers should end up in the top 40 for strikeouts while not tanking your ERA. As a late-round option, Detmers makes a fine source of strikeouts.

Andrew Abbott - SP, Cincinnati Reds

NFBC ADP - 269
ATC projection - 143 strikeouts

After putting up elite strikeout numbers in the minor leagues (35.8% K%), Abbott had an impressive debut year for the Reds. His 3.87 ERA might have been a bit fortunate, given his 4.56 xFIP and 4.33 SIERA. But his 26.1% K% (72nd percentile) shouldn't have come as a surprise. It's also something Abbott should be able to replicate in 2024.

Abbott is projected for 131.0 IP but should be able to top that, especially if he stays healthy. Across three levels, Abbott totaled 163.1 IP last year, so it's unlikely he'll be on much of an innings limit. Even if Abbott manages 160 innings, you can expect at least 180 strikeouts. Pitching in Cincinnati isn't ideal and not conducive to a low ERA. Despite that, Abbott should still be able to have a serviceable ERA and will make up for it with the strikeouts.

Lance Lynn - SP, St. Louis Cardinals

NFBC ADP - 306
ATC projection - 155 strikeouts

While Lynn managed to throw 183.2 IP (the most he's thrown since 2019), it came with a career-high 5.73 ERA. That was largely down to the 44 homers he allowed (most in baseball). Lynn did manage to maintain his better-than-average strikeout rate, with a 23.6% K% (51st percentile). That helped Lynn to tally 191 strikeouts, which ranked 20th most in the majors. If he can cut down the homers, Lynn could return to fantasy relevancy.

For fear of being cancelled, of all possible destinations, landing with the Cardinals avails a path to success for Lance Lynn.

Busch Stadium suppresses power (though it has been more HR-friendly over the last two seasons) and Lynn should have a comfort level back in St. Louis.

— Todd Zola (@ToddZola) November 20, 2023

Last year might have signaled an end for the now 36-year-old. But his underlying numbers suggest there may be enough fantasy value left. Lynn had a 4.50 xFIP and 4.33 SIERA. Not good, but certainly better than his ERA. Back in St. Louis where his career began, who is to say Lynn can't produce one more solid season? Even if his ERA is ~4.50 (like it's projected to be), Lynn can still help with strikeouts as a last-round pick in your drafts.

Josiah Gray - SP, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP - 438
ATC projection - 147 strikeouts

I'm not advocating Gray as draftable in standard leagues. In 15-team leagues, he's barely worthwhile rostering. But he also serves a purpose to remind us that strikeouts are cumulative. You may look at Gray's numbers last year and think he should be ranked higher. A 3.91 ERA across 159.0 IP is certainly worth rostering. However, his 5.12 xFIP and 5.08 SIERA tell us he was lucky and should have had a ~5.00 ERA (similar to previous years).

Gray's 20.5% K% last year was a career low and only ranked in the 31st percentile. Yet, he still ranked tied-53rd overall in total strikeouts with 143. Between 2021 and 2022 (219.1 IP), Gray had a 9.44 K/9. If he returns to that mark in 2024, we'd be looking at 168 strikeouts (based on his projected 160.0 IP). That would've ranked Gray 34th overall in strikeouts last year. If Gray can put everything together, the strikeouts will be a big boost without hurting your ratios.

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