Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 5: Matthew Stafford, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jahan Dotson

October 7, 2023

Kev‘s fantasy football warning signals and lineup sit ems for Week 5 (2023). Who should I start instead of these players worth benching, sitting, and avoiding?

Week 5 of the fantasy football season is underway and despite a limited set of data, it is okay to consider benching players with name value. We often hear the phrase "start your studs" and it is a tried and true method, especially earlier in the season. When injuries, tough matchups, and/or questionable team situations arise, we must adjust. Today, I'll be looking at Matthew Stafford, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jahan Dotson.

This may be difficult to stomach benching a player drafted within the top 100 for a possible free-agent acquisition, but sometimes such measures must be taken to ensure victory throughout the fantasy football season.

Here is a look at some fantasy football players who have shown warning signals recently, and you should think twice about putting them in your lineup in Week 5. Will they bounce back, or continue to underperform? For any and all issues or concerns, contact @RotoSurgeon on Twitter.

Quarterback Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 5?

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

While this matchup may indicate the necessity to keep up with the Eagles' offense, there are underlying issues with Stafford and the Rams' offense. First off, Stafford (hip) is entering the game with a reportedly minor injury as a result of hits taken in Week 4. He is no longer a young buck who can tough out bumps and bruises as we witnessed last season.

Stafford is QB20 on the season due to his limited rushing and the Rams' lackluster weapons on offense. Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell to a lesser degree are revelations but also, the only reason the offense is somewhat competent. There is a massive mismatch between the Rams' offensive line and the Eagles' defensive line which will force Stafford into getting the ball out quickly and limiting chunk plays.

Though the Eagles' run defense ranks 1st and their pass defense 17th, the Rams have rushed in a majority of their offensive touchdowns this season and should continue to if near the goalline (three passing TDs vs. six rushing TDs), thus, limiting Stafford'a fantasy output further.

Who To Start Instead?

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears' defense is atrocious and they are missing arguably their two best defenders, Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson, who both happen to play in the secondary. Sam Howell has played up to par for a first-year QB this season despite his proclivity to take sacks at an astonishing 15% rate. He should be capable of lighting up the board against a Bears' passing defense that ranks second-last in DVOA.

Sam Howell is my top QB Streamer of Week 5:

-WAS = 5th highest in pass-rate over expected
-WAS =7th best implied total
-Howell = 21 & 19 FPs in 2 of last 3
-CHI = 2nd most FPs allowed to QBs
-CHI = 30th in pressure rate, minimizing the major sack concerns w/ Howell

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) October 5, 2023

Washington's passing weapons are talented and at full strength in Week 5 making it possible for Howell to create chunk play opportunities for major fantasy points. Terry McLaurin began the season with a turf toe injury that is seemingly behind him based on his 86-yard, 10-target performance last week along with starting TE Logan Thomas who suffered a concussion in Week 3 but returned last week. The passing weapons mixed with Howell's ability to scramble (82 yards and one TD on 11 rushes), make for a sweet play against Chicago.

Running Back Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 5?

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints

Stevenson is struggling to start the season for various reasons. The Patriots' offense is retched and limits a running back who, while talented, does not possess the speed necessary to breakaway on a given run. There is also the issue of an offensive line that ranks 24th in adjusted line yards (via FTN) and a pocket quarterback who does not threaten defenses with his legs beyond an occasional open-field scramble.

More importantly, the Patriots face a Saints' defense which ranks top-10 by DVOA. The run defense is middling but New England just cannot move the ball and that has resulted in a garish 2.7 yards/carry for Rhamondre. With the Patriots targeting Rhamondre less often this season as well, he just does not have the same opportunities to thrive in fantasy as last season and should be benched in tougher matchups.

Who To Start Instead?

Breece Hall, New York Jets @ Denver Broncos

Breece Hall is finally off his early-season snap count and faces a Broncos' defense which is the worst by DVOA since it began measuring NFL performance. Last season, Hall injured his ACL and lost what should have been an Offensive Rookie of the Year award in Denver but just prior to that, rushed for 72 yards and a TD on four carries. He has unfinished business to take care of in the Mile High City and should finally return some value to fantasy managers despite producing 6.6 yards/carry thus far.

Jets’ HC Robert Saleh told reporters that the team will not be limiting RB Breece Hall’s workload any longer.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 4, 2023

Wide Receiver Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 5?

Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders vs. Chicago Bears

Jahan Dotson's season-to-date has been underwhelming. He is one of the least efficient receivers on a per-route basis as he averages fewer than one yard/route and has 110 yards on 25 targets through four games. That efficiency per target is similar to that of a plodding running back. Dotson's sophomore fantasy slump is not shocking given that a lot of his value in 2022 was derived from touchdowns but this rate of play should not continue as he is talented enough to succeed.

Nevertheless, even in a plus matchup like this week against Chicago, Dotson is hard to trust as he is being outperformed by Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas. The Commanders may try to pepper him and get him going but the likeliest scenario in a matchup as near-touchdown favorites is that the Commanders don't pass enough to do so for Dotson. He is a bench player until we see more yardage production.

Who To Start Instead?

Tank Dell, Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons

Dell's breakout is impressive for a player of his stature. 280 total yards and two touchdowns through four games will catch any fantasy manager's eye. Although he is coming off of an underwhelming three-target game, there is a lot to like about this coming matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta is likely to pair top corner AJ Terrell with Houston's WR1 Nico Collins, allowing Dell to run against the weaker opposing corner. Terrell matched up against Calvin Ridley just last week and limited him to two targets (TD allowed was a broken play).

Week 4 Shadow Report. AJ Terrell lining up across Ridley on 79% of his snaps is the highest mark for any defender in a single week all season pic.twitter.com/45VJjjBBVu

— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 4, 2023

With rookie QB C.J. Stroud playing like that of a high-end NFL QB to begin his career, we could see multiple pass-catchers thrive in this Houston offense all season. It also does not hurt that Atlanta's pass defense ranks 27th in the league and dome environments like their home stadium bolster passing attacks.

More Fantasy Football Analysis