Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 4: Jared Goff, Joe Mixon, and Michael Thomas

September 28, 2023

Kev‘s fantasy football warning signals and lineup sit ems for Week 4 (2023). Who should I start instead of these players worth benching, sitting, and avoiding?

Week 4 of the fantasy football season is underway and despite a limited set of data, it is okay to consider benching players with name value. We often hear the phrase "start your studs" and it is a tried and true method, especially earlier in the season. When injuries, tough matchups, and/or questionable team situations arise, we must adjust. Today, I'll be looking at Jared Goff, Joe Mixon, and Michael Thomas.

This may be difficult to stomach benching a player drafted within the top 100 for a possible free-agent acquisition, but sometimes such measures must be taken to ensure victory throughout the fantasy football season.

Here is a look at some fantasy football players who have shown warning signals recently, and you should think twice about putting them in your lineup in Week 4. Will they bounce back, or continue to underperform? For any and all issues or concerns, contact @RotoSurgeon on Twitter.

Quarterback Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 4?

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

Jared Goff is awesome because if you roster him in fantasy, it is clear-cut as to when you start him and when you do not. Home or in a dome elsewhere versus an average or worse pass defense? Start.

Outdoors against an average or better pass defense? Sit.

The Green Bay Packers rank 10th in pass defense through three weeks and face the Lions on a Thursday which is typically more favorable for defenses due to the shortened week. Also, David Montgomery is possibly returning for Detroit which may behoove them to lean on the run game more as they had planned entering this season. Goff's scored as a backend QB1 thus far but given his lack of rushing ability and offensive playmakers, he is a bench-able option this week.

What To Do

Daniel Jones, New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks

Jones has failed to score 10 fantasy points in two of three matchups while also finishing as QB1 overall in the other. The two matchups he struggled in were against the Cowboys and 49ers who respectively rank 3rd and 4th in pass defense according to DVOA.  This week, the New York Giants face a Seahawks pass defense that ranks 28th in a game with a combined total of 47.5 points (via Pinnacle).

Daniel Jones put up 30 FPs against the only non-Top-5 Defense he faced this year.

Facing an abysmal Seahawks secondary who allowed Andy Dalton to throw for *checks notes* 368 YARDS last week

I've seen Jones regularly dropped. At least scoop so you don't endure an eruption

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) September 27, 2023

With Saquon Barkley (ankle) likely out of commission for another week, the onus remains on Jones to carry the offense literally and figuratively as he may be their best option within a backfield of journeyman Matt Breida and special teamer Gary Brightwell. In the passing game, Jones' limitations may be mitigated by less pressure from a weaker defensive front and struggling secondary. This could even be the week he and offseason acquisition Darren Waller connect in the end zone!

Running Back Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 4?

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

Mixon's most recent week was saved by a 14-yard touchdown run and nothing else. This is a disappointing start to Mixon's season despite averaging a similar yard/touch as 2021 and 2022. With Joe Burrow (calf) limited in practice and games, the offense is a disaster. They have a predictable offensive script due to their quarterback's lack of mobility and unwillingness to commit on the ground.

This coming game against the Titans is troublesome for Mixon as they rank 3rd in rush defense according to DVOA after ranking 1st last season. Tennessee's philosophy on both sides of the ball is focusing on the run and it has worked. Mixon could overcome the matchup by scoring a touchdown or an increase in receiving production but both seem unlikely given how sluggish the offense is with Burrow far from 100%.

What To Do

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers

The Vikings are desperate to create some of their offense through the ground but their matchups prior to last week and Mattison's pedestrian talent precluded them of that opportunity. In Week 3, we witnessed Mattison rush for a respectable 93 yards on 20 carries while adding 32 receiving yards on seven targets.

Alexander Mattison has seen at least 85% of Minnesota's running back rushes and a 14% target share in each of his last two games.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 24, 2023

Mattison will face competition over the coming weeks in the form of recently acquired RB Cam Akers. Akers has a history with Head Coach Kevin O'Connell from his days with the Rams. Luckily, the last time Akers saw the field he rushed for 29 yards on 22 carries.

Nevertheless, after a successful 27 opportunity game, Mattison likely remains a starter/workhorse as the Vikings head to Carolina in a matchup against the Panthers' 32nd-ranked rush defense. He should be capable of repeating this past week's output if not expanding upon it.

Wide Receiver Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 4?

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good News: Michael Thomas has played all three games this season with at least 75% of the snaps in each and heads into this coming week healthy!

Bad News: Michael Thomas has produced just 166 yards on 22 targets with no touchdowns scored.

There is optimism for Thomas as he may be shaking off the rust after a long, sporadic layoff from football but for the time being, he is best left on fantasy benches unless needed. The Buccaneers rank ninth against the pass according to DVOA and Thomas will see a QB change this week due to Derek Carr's (shoulder) injury.

While new starter Jameis Winston is notorious for feeding his WRs fantasy points, there is no guarantee the Saints let Winston loose in a matchup against a mediocre Buccaneers offense, especially with Alvin Kamara returning from suspension.

What To Do

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings

Thielen's amassed 199 yards and two touchdowns on 23 targets over the past two weeks and heads back to Carolina to face his original franchise and hometown team Minnesota Vikings. The term "revenge game" gets thrown around a lot for players who have no real connection to a prior team but the Vikings somewhat threw Thielen by the wayside after signing him as an undrafted free agent, developing him into a stud WR, then retaining him for nearly a decade.

Thielen has a chip on his shoulder this week and faces a pass defense that ranks in the bottom 10 through three games. With Bryce Young back under center, the entire WR room may be downgraded relative to veteran Andy Dalton but Thielen is likely targeted early, and often.

Panthers WR Adam Thielen on facing the Vikings: ‘’I am not one to hold grudges.’’ pic.twitter.com/felGCDYP70

— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) September 27, 2023

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