Fantasy Football ADP Fallers at Running Back - Kenneth Walker, Sony Michel, Brian Robinson

July 18, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of three running backs from to assess their fantasy football value at RB in 2022.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-June to mid-July using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three running-back fallers.

Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Fallers

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks

As far as I know, there has only been one small bit of information reported from the Seahawks' summer camps regarding Walker and the team's backfield. It's not even that surprising though, as ESPN's Brady Henderson told folks that "Rashard Penny is in the driver's seat to be the featured back" of the Seahawks. At the end of the day, Seattle spent a second-round pick in KW3 this past draft, so it's reasonable to have him featuring heavily whatever happens next season, let alone with Russell Wilson out of town and no legitimate scrambler or even top-tier passer around anymore. That said, there is a little someone called Rashad Penny still in the roster and that means he will – or at least should – eat touches and opportunities on a very large basis.

You might not like that scenario, but the truth is that KW3's appeal is mostly coming from Novelty Bias. We tend to favor rookies over veterans because they're the freshest kids in town and the unknown and potential upside they bring along with them always bring wilder fantasies to our brains than what we know and expect from veterans. Even with his current 18-position ADP drop, Walker still has an ADP more than high compared to his projection (PFF has him as the RB43 in 2022), so he's still a supremely overpaid rusher in fantasy drafts. Fantasy GMs are grabbing KW3 as the RB27 and 80th-overall player in 12-team leagues, which makes no sense. On the other hand, Penny is sitting right where he should: RB33 off the board and projected to an RB34 finish in PPR leagues (143 FP compared to Walker's 116, mind you.) Unless Walker's ADP keeps cratering and given the late reports, it makes sense to fade the hell out of Kenneth.

Sony Michel, Miami Dolphins

Let's make something clear here. Whatever Michel does, you just buy into it. Yes, I know, he wasn't the one picking Los Angeles as that was a trade and not a free-agent signing, but the guy ended with a ring on his finger, didn't he? So we gotta believe in this man. Or do we? Michel entered free agency this offseason and decided to ink a one-year pact with Miami to become (maybe) the third-string rusher of the team. Again, it's just a one-year deal valued at only $2.1 million so it's not that the Fins are getting into any trouble here if things go south.

As PFF sees it, Michel is projected to a measly RB67 finish while getting drafted as the RB47 off draft boards. That's atrocious, and that means he's been wildly overdrafted even though his ADP keeps going down by the minute (more than a full round in the last month alone). The stats PFF is attaching to him for the 2022 season read 72 rushing attempts, 297 rushing yards, and just 2 rushing TDs. Forget about the receiving end, as that's virtually a zero. If Michel is lucky, he might command an RB3/situational role in Miami. If he's not, he might drop down the pecking order to the fourth or fifth string, and only a very injury-loaded backfield would give him chances. Worst-case scenario, he gets cut at some point before the season ends or not too deep into it. Michel is a must-fade, so don't even worry about his ADP.

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders

While the ADP drop isn't incredible, it is still quite notable at more than a full round in 12-team drafts. The last time I checked (one minute ago), Robinson was still Washington's RB3 below both JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson. However you want to reorder the latter two is up to you, but they feel and look and seem to be entrenched in the two-largest roles available in the Commanders' backfield, at least entering the summer training camps part of the offseason. Nothing has changed regarding that for weeks, months, etc... so Robinson is stuck in his RB3 role and thus the ADP keeps going down as fantasy GMs don't see Robinson's way out of that situation.

Now, let's pause for a minute. There is something to explore in at least some more depth here because it's rather interesting. While McKissic projects to more PPR points than Robinson next season (123.5 to 97.8), they are miles away in terms of actual opportunity share projections (Robinson's at 29.9% and JDM at just 16.8%). In other words, and with this being fantasy football, you definitely want to chase Robinson before you do McKissic. The veteran's higher total PPR projection is basically because of his 64/52/415/3 projection, but McKissic has zero upside in the running game as he projects to get 23 measly rushing attempts all year. That compares to Robinson's 120 (only 53 fewer than Antonio Gibson) for 503 yards and 4 TDs. The minute Robinson tops those numbers, even by the slightest margin, he'd become a bonafide threat to snatch Gibson's RB1 role as the main rusher of the squad. With an ADP of RB61 but a projection to finish the year as the RB51, you should be targeting BRJr. in any and every single one of your drafts. The ROI could be massive.

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