RADIO
The first half of the 2023 MLB season presented multiple new rules for players to become accustomed and as a result, the game has slightly changed. Stolen bases have significantly spiked, batting average is up, and many starting pitchers are struggling thanks to the limitations of "the shift."
Nevertheless, there is a reason sayings like "water finds its level" and "cream rises to the top" exist. Talent will always find a way to get back to presenting itself and with that, buying opportunities in fantasy baseball are right in front of us.
With the All-Star Break underway, we have multiple pieces to buy or pick up off of waivers in hopes of finding success moving forward. RotoBaller's Kev Mahserejian tackles the second-half bouncebacks of fantasy baseball and if any questions or concerns arise, feel free to contact him on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon).
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Second-Half Improvers for Fantasy Baseball
Willson Contreras
While Contreras is halfway to his typical season-long stats in a year, he is doing so with nearly everyday playing time making him extremely inefficient per plate appearance. His SLG% is .036 lower than his career mark despite a typical AVG and OBP.
What is in Contreras’s favor is an xAVG and xSLG below expectation by a significant margin. He is not quite a “buy low” but that’s the beauty of it. A manager is more likely to sell a piece they believe is being acquired at draft day cost rather than sold for pennies on the dollar. Contreras has an opportunity to finish as C1 of the second half if his contact remains similar to the first half but with better luck.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber is having a season that is as frustrating as possible. While 22 home runs, 52 runs, and 49 RBI are appetizing for any fantasy manager, the .184 AVG is atrocious and sinking any and all teams weekly. The good news is that he is well under a .224 xAVG and could make up for a poor on-base season to date soon.
He can do so without giving up his home run production as it is just a matter of luck swinging back his way and what better time than with fantasy playoffs on the horizon?
Tim Anderson
The White Sox are a black hole this season and Anderson’s been sucked in. There is nothing better for Tim Anderson’s outlook than hearing the White Sox are willing sellers at the upcoming deadline. Anderson’s season to date is the worst of his career and while an early season hamstring injury and offseason scandal can take the blame for some, he needs a change of scenery to really strike in the second half.
Players like Anderson who are still in their athletic prime with a sturdy history of success are always good bounce-back bets. His expected stats suggest regression to come, particularly in the power department but a full-on re-breakout is also possible on a new, contending roster.
Max Scherzer
Scherzer is not getting any younger and a cliff will arrive eventually but his 4.31 ERA this season is not an accurate measure of his present skill level. With a 3.62 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, and 3.68 SIERA, it is evident that the Mets’ 2022 signing is due for regression.
While these numbers are roughly a full run higher than past seasons, it is feasible to believe Scherzer could lower them along with his ERA given his greatness along with the fact that his velocity is not far off from last year when he posted a 2.29 ERA backed with sub-3.30 peripherals across the board.
Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn is pitching at a high level of late but beyond that, he comes with the bonus of a potential (likely) trade prior to the coming deadline. The aforementioned black hole aka White Sox are open to giving away anyone, and everyone outside the core of Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and Andrew Vaughn according to Jon Herman.
Lynn, who was acquired for recent Rangers’ success story Dane Dunning, has posted an egregious 6.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season. However, his xFIP and SIERA both sit below 4.00, and over the past four starts he has posted a 3.86 ERA with an xFIP of 2.52. There is still a highly skilled pitcher here and someone will be taking advantage of that in a trade for the rest of 2023.
Grayson Rodriguez
Rodriguez since being sent down to minors possesses a 1.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.03 FIP, and 26.4% K-BB. He is clearly a major league-ready starter and displayed part of the skills this season while up in the bigs with a 4.09 SIERA and 3.89 xFIP.
Hard contact and poor fly ball luck was an issue that needed correction and he has seemingly righted the ship with just three home runs allowed across 37 IP since June 3rd.
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