RADIO
Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 13. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.
You can pore over stats for days, analyzing leaderboards and recent trends, but there is no substitute for watching the game itself. While you can't quantify spin rate or exit velocity with the naked eye, you get a true sense of how a player performs in key situations and the eyeball test sometimes proves truer than numbers. This is why advanced analytics will never completely do away with scouts and why spreadsheets will never overrule the true baseball fan who knows the game from personal observation. Keep this in mind when evaluating any player, even if it's the context of a fantasy league that is ruled by statistics alone.
Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should constantly pursue as a dedicated fantasy baseball manager. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.
I will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, time to assess some fantasy values.
Undervalued Players - Week 13
Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL) - 76% owned
You know this can't last, right? Both Schoop and the Orioles are inexplicably horrible this season, but it's got to turn around at some point. While I wouldn't put any money down on the O's climbing out of the AL East basement, Schoop has a proven track record and is actually at the prime age for production (26). An oblique injury stunted the start to his season and may have lingered far after his return from the DL. We saw Wil Myers return to the DL and miss significant time for the same issue. Schoop has shown signs of life lately with a modest four-game hit streak and a pair of doubles this past week, although he still hasn't truly snapped out of it. Sometimes it takes players until after the All-Star break to fully recover and bounce back from a rough first half. Now that we're just a couple weeks away from the end of the first half, it could be time to buy-low on those players like Schoop who have no business performing as poorly as they have.
Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) - 46% owned
It's easy to forget about Hicks in a star-studded lineup like the Yankees, but he presents solid value across multiple categories, even if he doesn't stand out in any of them. Hicks is batting .251 for the season, but is up to .300 in June. He's on pace for a career high in home runs with 10 right now, although he's also never reached as many as 400 plate appearances in a season. That's the key with Hicks - if he can stay healthy, he can contribute. A recent four-game stretch hitting leadoff was even more promising, although he was down to sixth tonight. Although Brett Gardner is seen as a better fantasy play due to his speed, he's only swiped seven bags and last year's power hasn't shown up. If Hicks can earn more time at the top of the order, he's the one to own instead.
Chris Archer (SP, TB) - 92% owned
While Archer is almost universally owned, his perceived value on the trade market has been suppressed all year and a trip to the DL just made things worse. Luckily, it's an abdominal issue and not something elbow or shoulder related. Archer hasn't kept an ERA below 4.00 since 2015 and he's still not going to notch many victories in Tampa. He's been victimized by some bad luck, as his SIERA would indicate. This year, his 4.24 ERA is finally catching up with his 3.88 SIERA after three straight quality starts to end May. His K-rate is down just below a batter per inning, which could be the final straw for those dismissing Archer as an SP1, but his 12.7% SwStr% is in line with the last couple of seasons. Between a lower strikeout total, ERA over 4.00 and just three wins, it might be a lot to apologize for, but Archer doesn't appear to have a diminished skill set and his injury is nothing that should affect him long-term. The ideal situation is that he gets dealt to a contender before the deadline, but that's not a guarantee. Either way, Archer is a player that could perform better and could be a bargain if his current owner has grown impatient.
Anthony DeSclafani (SP, CIN) - 6% owned
Looking for the next Andrew Heaney? Desclafani hasn't had to battle from TJ surgery, but he is a former pitching prospect returning from an injury-plagued season that could surprise. He got off to a predictably rusty start in his first outing of the year against the Rockies, but he settled down after getting hit hard in the first inning. He's only allowed two earned runs in each of his last two starts, although he's only gone five innings each time. Expect him to get stretched out as the second half progresses. In 2016 with the Reds, DeSclafani finished with a 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 9-5 record over 20 starts. The strikeout rate won't be top-notch, but if you're in the market for a promising starter looking to lock down a starting rotation spot, DeSclafani might be worth a shot.
Overvalued Players - Week 13
Rafael Devers (3B, BOS) - 87% owned
I had a chance to see Devers in person against the Twins recently and it simply reinforced what I already suspected - Devers is still a bit too impatient to be a consistent fantasy producer. In one at-bat, he chased a high fastball near eye-level for strike three and later on with the bases loaded, he popped up weakly. Not that one game is going be representative of the way he performs, but these examples are. Devers is among the league leaders in O-Swing%, which in itself isn't terrible, as hitters like Ozzie Albies, Corey Dickerson, and Eddie Rosario are near the top of that category. His 62.9% O-Contact% isn't in the seventies like those hitters, however. His counting stats for the month of June got a boost from three unexpected steals and the power has been relatively consistent, but his season slash line sits at a disappointing .236/.285/.418 and his plate discipline has taken a step back from last season. In keeper leagues you absolutely need to hold Devers, but redraft owners don't have to feel compelled to stay patient.
Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN) - 68% owned
One could argue that Hamilton has always been overvalued, but the dearth of quality stolen base artists these days makes owning him a necessary evil. B-Ham has done a great job getting on base via walk, with a career-high 11.2% BB% this season, but his strikeout rate has also spiked to 29.1% and his average has dipped down to .211. With those kind of numbers, you'd better be hitting 40+ homers like Joey Gallo or stealing 40+ bases like Hamilton. Unfortunately, Hamilton's 14 steals don't justify an everyday lineup spot on fantasy teams. His recent 9-for-18 streak could reinvigorate interest in him for an owner desperate for steals, although he'll likely have to be packaged in with more stable assets if you want a decent return.
Julio Teheran (SP, ATL) - 68% owned
Teheran has his share of skeptics after last year's rough transition to a new ballpark led to a 4.49 ERA and an 11-13 record. He appears to have recovered this season and continued a strong recent stretch with a gem against the Padres. He tossed six scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts at home on June 17. A matchup against the hapless Orioles on Saturday could lower his ratios even further. This could be the peak of his fantasy value in 2018, though. Teheran's fantasy numbers, while not overly impressive, are good enough to make him earn him a spot in most fantasy rotations. That could change soon enough, as he appears to be out-performing many of his peripherals. Teheran's 3.97 ERA is almost a full run lower than his 4.86 xFIP, his 81.4% strand rate is one of the highest among qualified starters, and his .218 BABIP is 55 points lower than his career mark. Most notably, the last four starts where Teheran has allowed two runs or fewer came against the Padres, Rays, and Mets twice. He doesn't have a dominant strikeout rate to offset poor ratios, so he is always a risky start. If you own him, try to take advantage of his recent success in the trade market to secure a vet on the upswing like Sonny Gray or Tyson Ross.
