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We have our biggest betting week of the year so far in Week 3, and Saturday will be one of the largest betting days of the year in terms of number of games to bet on. We have 49 of those puppies today. If you're looking beyond the obvious touts, I'll pick all 49 of them. Don't worry. I keep track of how I do. I'm 51-44 on the season so far. That's 53.7%, so I'm holding steady on my course to get 55% right on the season. You know I'll keep you posted.
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I had a somewhat disappointing week 2, going 22-23. I lost eight of my 14 points on the season, so I'm only up six points. I'll have to fix that. The locks haven't all been locks so far.
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I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I am 29-21 on the season so far with 14 points gained. Add that to my 28 points I started the season with, and I have a solid 42 points. Hey, I'll take it! It took me two years to get out of the hole of the dismal 2017 season.
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience. I've been waiting to bring this college football betting series over to RotoBaller since I started here back in February, so let's get to this!
Due to the lack of accurate spreads on FCS vs. FBS games, I won't make official picks on those. They aren't on the board at most Vegas casinos anyway (if you absolutely INSIST on betting these, you can come into the premium chat at Rotoballer and I will try to answer). Why wont I bet those? Ask Washington, Colorado State, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Tulsa, Florida State, and Ohio. Those eight notches are now on FCS bedposts. A special shoutout goes to Vandy and Colorado State, who didn't just lose. They got smoked by more than 20 points!
Nebraska at (3)Oklahoma(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I've been waiting 11 years for this one! Due to circumstances beyond my control, I wont be able to make it to the game, but I'm pretty sure you'll find me camped out around a pitcher of Guinness at a bar in metro St. Louis somewhere watching this game. Oklahoma doesn't just want to win this: they want to win this big. We all remember the 1996 game. That was probably the low point for Oklahoma and Nebraska ran it up. Then Nebraska tried to get out of playing this game in 2021. That didn't sit well either. Nebraska is no longer at their lowest, but they aren't far removed from it either. I expect the old turnover-prone Adrian Martinez to show up in Norman. Sooners win big. BOOMER!
New Mexico at (7)Texas A&M(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I hate spreads like this anyway. Add in Texas A&M breaking in a new, albeit experienced, quarterback and this has the potential for disaster. The Lobos wont get close to winning this game, but 31 points might be a lot to ask from an Aggies offense that is going to be more focused on getting Zach Calzada comfortable with the offense than running the football 60 times. Give me the Lobos, but I wouldn't touch this. Too many variables.
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(8)Cincinnati(-3.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I like free money. The Cincinnati defense isn't as good as Iowa's, but the offense is a lot better to overcome the 14 or so more points that they allow. Bearcats by double digits!
(15)Virginia Tech at West Virginia(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This looks backwards to me. The Hokies are still having some issues on the offense, but West Virginia stumbled around the field on offense with the exception of Leddie Brown in the opener against Maryland. I like the Virginia Tech defense to control this game much like they did against North Carolina and come out with the win.
(16)Coastal Carolina(-13.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't consider Buffalo a bad team even though they played like it last week. However, Kyle Vantrease proved that he can't throw the ball well enough to win from behind if they get down big again. The Chanticleers are explosive and quick. I think they cover this, even though we may have to sweat it for a while.
Michigan State at (24)Miami(FL)(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Nope. Spartans straight up! They have played a hell of a lot better than the U so far.
Northern Illinois at (25)Michigan(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Look out, the Wolverines are ranked. That's when things get weird under Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. I know that Michigan is good enough to cover this. I'm just not sure they will. Rankings do weird things to the Wolverines lately. I don't think I can go against Michigan, but I'm lowering the bet.
Western Michigan at Pittsburgh(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I want to say this is too many, but I don't think it is. Pitt just went into Knoxville and beat a young and spirited Vols team. The Panthers' lack of a strong run game is concerning, but they have the most experienced quarterback in college. Give me Pitt.
Boston College(-15.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I want no part of this. The Eagles didn't look all that great without Phil Jurkovec against UMass and the defense gave up 24 points. I'm not scared of the Temple offense either even though they wrecked Akron. Still......it's Akron. That's about as much of a barometer as Western Carolina. Give me BC, but I have little confidence in it.
Connecticut at Army(-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Remember what I said about UConn spreads getting a lot more difficult? It starts here. FanDuel and DraftKings have pulled this game off their books entirely. Army isn't really equipped to cover spreads like this, but I'm not sure UConn scores. Give me Army.
Minnesota at Colorado(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened with the Gophers as favorites. If Minnesota gets behind, they're going to have problems, but Colorado's offense hasn't had big plays. Jarek Broussard playing in this game is huge for the Ralphies, but this offense just doesn't make big plays. They don't even try to stretch the field. Minnesota at least tries. Is that enough to win in Boulder? I honestly don't know. Give me Colorado. They were able to stop a good A&M rushing attack. The Gophers struggled with Miami of Ohio.
Nevada(-1.5) at Kansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Kansas State defense is solid, but we saw how bad the Wildcats are without Skylar Thompson last year. Give me Nevada.
Purdue at (12)Notre Dame(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If the Irish are the 12th best team in the country, I'll eat the Pope. Purdue straight up!
(1)Alabama(-14.5) at (11)Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Gators finally found a team that can stop the run. They're in trouble. Roll Tide!
Kent State at (5)Iowa(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Hawkeyes are due for a letdown. Iowa relies on a strong defense and ball control offense. The Kent defense wasn't too shabby itself down in College Station. Iowa wins, but I'm not sure they win by this much. Give me Kent and the points (and the under).
Georgia Tech at (6)Clemson(-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We haven't seen much explosiveness out of the Clemson offense, but they played a great Georgia defense and a 1-AA team. They haven't been able to show off. I think they do here. The Wreck has no chance on this defense. Give me Clemson.
Tulsa at (9)Ohio State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That feels like a lot of points, but this Tulsa offense is stuck in neutral. Perpetually. It's a yearly occurrence. The Tulsa D is solid, but they're going to wear out. Give me the Buckeyes.
SMU(-12.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is falling, which can only mean the Bulldogs are still getting credit for hanging with Mississippi State despite almost dropping one to Southeast Louisiana. Ponies roll here. Give me SMU.
Florida State at Wake Forest(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. The Wake defense hasn't been great, but the offense is really good. I don't think the Seminoles keep up. Give me Wake.
Eastern Michigan(-21.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is too high. The Eagles offense isn't what it was a couple of years ago, at least not yet. Give me UMass at home.
Baylor(-17.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Are the Jayhawks better than Texas Southern? Not that much. Give me Baylor.
USC(-8.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like Wazzu, but this game screams stay away. Interim coach Donte Williams' first game is a road test and he almost assuredly has no chance at the job. However, he is well-liked by the players and if USC comes out swinging –and knocking out a team like Washington State – there's a chance the Trojans give him the job. Considering the disaster that was Clay Helton's tenure though, I don't think we can count on that. USC doesn't want to instate another interim who does well. They want a name. Williams is likely coaching for a chance at a coaching job at a smaller school, which can still be good motivation. I like Wazzu here, but due to the factors mentioned above (and the extreme wealth of talent for the Trojans), I'm betting USC.
Georgia Southern at (20)Arkansas(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I always get nervous when the line jumps a touchdown from the open. Still, Arkansas rolled Texas. Georgia Southern's claim to fame is.....nothing. The offense has been a disaster outside of Logan Wright, but the Piggies can stop him. Give me Arkansas.
Mississippi State(-3.5) at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This one is looking like a shootout. Mississippi State's run defense put on a show last week and they weren't too shabby in the opener either. I'll go with the Bulldogs here. Memphis is going to make it interesting for a while, but the Leaches pull away.
Northwestern(-2.5) at Duke
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the Nerd Bowl undercard. The last time Northwestern went to Durham in 2017 they were also favored. They got blown off the field. Duke is not capable of doing that this year. I'm more comfortable betting the under than the spread, but I have to take Northwestern here. Duke was awful against Charlotte and sloppy against North Carolina A&T. Northwestern at least has an excuse against Michigan State.
Ball State at Wyoming(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hmmm....are the Cardinals better than NIU? Probably. Are they at nearly 1.25 miles high? That's when it gets tricky. I do think the Wyoming secondary is going to have problems with Justin Hall and Yo'Heinz Tyler. However, with the altitude and Xazavian Valladay, the Cowboys have too much of an advantage. Give me Wyoming.
Colorado State at Toledo(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Rams have to be reeling after blowing a two touchdown lead to Vandy. Toledo is flying high after nearly toppling Notre Dame. Give me the Rockets.
Arkansas State at Washington(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Blah-shington went 19 drives without scoring between the Montana and Michigan game. This is WAY too many for this bumbling offense to cover. Give me the Red Wolves. They probably wont win outright, but they should keep it around ten points.
Middle Tennessee State at UTSA(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow! The Roadrunners have arrived, I guess. UTSA is better at nearly every position on offense. I have to think they cover this.
East Carolina at Marshall(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
ECU has definitely been tested more, hanging with Appalachian State and losing a heartbreaker to South Carolina. Marshall thumped Navy, but just how good is Navy? They've looked pretty terrible so far. I like the Pirates to keep this within a touchdown. Give me ECU and the points.
Old Dominion at Liberty(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Old Dominion alum Taylor Heinicke got his first NFL start last night and led the Washingtonians to a win over the New York Football Giants. Even if the Monarchs had Heinicke back, they couldn't avoid getting covered. Give me Liberty (or give me death)!
South Carolina at (2)Georgia(-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Even if Georgia ends up rotating quarterbacks, which it looks like will be the case, they should still cover this. I will lower the bet though. The Bulldogs haven't covered this number against the Gamecocks since 2015.
Charlotte at Georgia State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this. Chris Reynolds and the 49ers looked good against Duke. Give me Charlotte.
Florida International at Texas Tech(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points. This is not a Mike Leach Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders have won both games by a combined 23 points, and one of those was against Stephen F. Austin (he's a Lumberjack and he's okay), a game in which they were 32 point favorites. Texas Tech is capable of covering this, but I don't think they do. Give me FIU and the points.
Troy(-9.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Frank Gore Jr. can't do it himself. He needs help and he wont get it. Give me Troy.
Utah(-8.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jordon Brookshire is hobbled, but it is believed he will play. That fact that the line is only up two points with that news suggests that Vegas has almost no faith in the Utes after the lost the Holy War. Utah probably wins, but I'm not sure it's by more than a touchdown. If Brookshire is out, I'm flipping this and raising the bet. Lucas Johnson struggled last year.
(22)Auburn at (10)Penn State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place, so shop around. I've seen it as low as 4 and as high as 7. The consensus is Penn State wins, but I have my doubts. I like Auburn outright.
Virginia at (21)North Carolina(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
....and the Tarheels are ranked why? Brennan Armstrong gives Virginia an added dimension and I don't think Sam Howell can handle himself well enough against this defense. He looked lost against the Hokies. Give me the Hoos.
Central Michigan at LSU(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like this line at all. LSU is the far more talented team, but they don't always play like it. That said, the Tigers are finally back home after Hurricane Ida and night games in Death Valley. We all know what that means. Give me LSU.
UAB(-11.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Mean Green defense is an abomination at this point. Give me UAB.
Utah State at Air Force(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is dropping and I can't figure out why. Haaziq Daniels is going to be a problem for the Aggies. I like Air Force by around two touchdowns.
Tulane at (17)Mississippi(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Tulane has a solid defense and Michael Pratt is tough. The Wave wont win outright, but I think they put a scare into Ole Miss. I'll take Tulane and the points.
Stanford(-12.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Did the Cardinal really turn a corner or was USC just that complacent. I tend to think this is too many. Vanderbilt's strength is their defense and I'm not ready to buy in to Stanford after one game. I wouldn't bet this though. If Stanford is for real, this could get ugly.
Rice at Texas(-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Longhorns get to feel good about themselves again. Rice wont be able to keep up here. Give me Texas.
Oklahoma State at Boise State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm disappointed that Okie State isn't still favored. They shouldn't be, but I was hoping to get an easy bet. Now I have to think about it. Just a little. Boise should win this by a touchdown. I'll take the Broncos.
(19)Arizona State(-3.5) at (23)BYU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Arizona State makes me nervous. They're a good team, but they have played sloppy in both games this year. I think this game stays really close and I wouldn't be all that shocked if BYU won outright. The safe bet is the Cougars and the points. I'll play this one safe.
(14)Iowa State(-31.5) at UNLV
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many. It's Vegas, baby! The Cyclones are going to have their minds on partying after the game and not running up the score on the Rebels. Give me UNLV.
Fresno State at (13)UCLA(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. The Bulldogs hung with Oregon in Eugene and Duck U is still better than Chip's current team. Give me Fresno and the points.
San Jose State(-6.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is going to be trouble in paradise. Give me the Spartans.
Despite the higher number of games, I chickened out on some of the larger bets. I only have two five-pointers and seven four-pointers. I have ten threes and nine ones, so those are right in line with my season averages. I ended up with 24 two-point bets, which can only mean I'm on the fence about a lot of these. I usually go lighter earlier in the season and if I weren't an Oklahoma fan, I would probably put more on that game. Scared money doesn't make money, but this is one of the weeks where there aren't a ton of good spots. There are enough to come out quite a bit ahead though.
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