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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season. Kipp's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season! For anyone who isn't familiar, each week we give you our recommended Survivor Pool picks to target and also avoid for 2026 Survivor leagues.
This week, I'm pinch-hitting on this feature for our friend Kevin Tompkins -- kind of like the backup quarterback coming off the bench.
Our top pick last week was the New England Patriots, who got the job done against the Miami Dolphins. Additionally, we wrote up the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals, who narrowly defeated the Tennessee Titans. We will look to go 3-0 once again this week.
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Win Probabilities For Week 9
Before jumping into the picks for Week 9, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| SEA | -750 | 88.24% | 84.65% |
| KC | -525 | 84.00% | 80.45% |
| SF | -500 | 83.33% | 79.83% |
| JAX | -430 | 81.13% | 77.92% |
| DET | -340 | 77.27% | 74.09% |
| CHI | -270 | 72.97% | 70.02% |
| DAL | -265 | 72.60% | 69.58% |
| LAR | -245 | 71.01% | 68.06% |
| HOU | -230 | 69.70% | 66.51% |
| CIN | -169 | 62.83% | 60.52% |
| NYG | -157 | 61.09% | 58.63% |
| NO | -152 | 60.32% | 57.79% |
| DEN | -152 | 60.32% | 57.79% |
| BUF | -152 | 60.32% | 57.79% |
| NE | -151 | 60.16% | 57.62% |
| GB | +126 | 44.25% | 42.38% |
| CLE | +127 | 44.05% | 42.21% |
| CAR | +127 | 44.05% | 42.21% |
| MIN | +127 | 44.05% | 42.21% |
| PHI | +132 | 43.10% | 41.37% |
| ATL | +144 | 40.98% | 39.48% |
| LAC | +185 | 35.09% | 33.49% |
| WAS | +200 | 33.33% | 31.94% |
| IND | +215 | 31.75% | 30.42% |
| TB | +220 | 31.25% | 29.98% |
| MIA | +270 | 27.03% | 25.91% |
| BAL | +335 | 22.99% | 22.08% |
| LV | +375 | 21.05% | 20.17% |
| NYJ | +390 | 20.41% | 19.55% |
| ARI | +525 | 16.00% | 15.35% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out; it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the Survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 9.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 9
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
The Jets are coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Las Vegas Raiders and now have to pick themselves up to travel halfway across the country to take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. This game currently sits with a 9.5-point spread, but the Chiefs should be able to cruise in this one, and they have some added motivation after losing to Denver last week.
The Chiefs have been humming on offense, as they are currently scoring nearly 24 points per game and averaging over 383 total yards per game. They have been extremely efficient with Kenneth Walker III, as the Chiefs currently rank fifth in the league in rushing yards per game.
This is where the Chiefs will exploit the Jets, as they are currently allowing an average of nearly 124 rushing yards per game, which ranks 21st in the league. The Chiefs should be able to utilize Walker frequently in this game and carry them to a comfortable win at home.
Stop if you've heard this before.
Kenneth Walker III scored a TD.
LACvsKC on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/4ddKGE4RRp— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
The Lions will be a very popular pick this week as they travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins. They currently sit as a seven-point favorite and should have enough offense to get the job done here.
The Lions currently rank third in the league by averaging 29 points per game. They also rank first in the league by posting an average of over 395 total yards of offense per game. Meanwhile, Miami has struggled to get its offense moving this season, as it averages just under 17 points per game.
Miami also allows nearly 26 points per game, which ranks 24th in the league. Detroit should be able to find success offensively in this game, and it should be able to stop Miami's rushing attack with its ninth-ranked rushing defense, which allows just under 97 yards per game.
FIRST DOWN Jared Goff
MINvsDET on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/eLhqBfjCXu— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026
San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
San Francisco is our last choice this week, and quite honestly, it may be the safest selection this week if you have not already used it. The 49ers are currently sitting at 6-1 and are backed by both a strong offense and a strong defense.
Overall, they rank inside the top 10 in both points scored (28.1) and points against (19.9). They also rank eighth in the league in total yards per game by averaging over 371 yards. On defense, they allow just over 299 total yards of offense per game, which ranks fourth in the league.
They should be able to move the ball up and down the field on this Raiders defense. Overall, the Raiders allow an average of nearly 29 points per game, which ranks 31st in the league. They also allow nearly 400 total yards per game, which ranks last in the league.
San Francisco also has the benefit of having this game at home, which is always a bonus when selecting a weekly survivor. It should be able to handle this game as the spread suggests, which currently favors the 49ers by 10 points.
Also Consider Using:
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 9
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
In full disclosure, I almost took the Cowboys last week against Arizona before pivoting in the morning to the Los Angeles Rams (more on them to come). Obviously, I am glad I made that pivot, as they ended up losing a thriller in overtime. Dallas is a six-point favorite at the Colts this week, but can it really be trusted?
My answer is a resounding no, especially on the road. Sure, the Cowboys could win this matchup, but there are so many better options on the board that I do not want to add any extra risk. Dallas also has an abysmal defense, which is not ideal in Survivor. Dallas ranks dead last in total yards allowed per game, as well as both rushing and passing yards per game allowed.
Meanwhile, the Colts have a serviceable rushing offense, as they rank 16th in the league by averaging just under 117 rushing yards per game. I could see a scenario playing out where the Colts pound the rock and have a shot to win the game late, and I am just not up for that kind of sweat this week.
Trey McBride. Wide open.
AZvsDAL on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/yf944qMNaC— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
I was on the Rams last week, so I could not be on them this week. However, I would still fade them here despite being favored by 5.5 points. This Washington Commanders team is starting to dig themselves out of an early season hole and are fresh off a victory last week against division-rival Philadelphia.
Washington also has a very strong run defense, which is something worth noting. Overall, it allows just under 100 rushing yards per game, which ranks 12th in the league. I point this out, as the Rams love to run the ball and rank 10th in the league by averaging over 125 rushing yards per game.
Washington has a shot to slow them down, which could allow it to steal this game late. I also do not love picking the Rams when they have to travel so far east for a matchup like this. While the Rams will likely win this game, there are plenty of other spots to look this week.
Also Consider Fading:
- Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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