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Mike Marteny's CFB bettings picks against the spread for Week 1 He has every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
The zero that is Week 0 is just a distant memory. Now we get into the meat of week 1. We have a ton of games on Saturday, but only 36 of them feature FBS vs. FBS teams. We can still make some money on those. There are some marquee games on the docket for week 1, which is very nice, but also a harbinger of things to come. That's a rant for another day.
Since this piece is new here at RotoBaller, I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I started 2-2 in week 0 with 0 points gained. I also didn't lose any. It's basically a wash and I still have my 28 points coming into the season.
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience. I've been waiting to bring this college football betting series over to RotoBaller since I started here back in February, so let's get to this!
Due to the lack of accurate spreads on FCS vs. FBS games, I won't make official picks on those. They aren't on the board at most Vegas casinos anyway (if you absolutely INSIST on betting these, you can come into the premium chat at Rotoballer and I will try to answer).
Tulane at (2)Oklahoma(-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line jumped a staggering 10 points on the announcement that this became a home game for Oklahoma due to Hurricane Ida. This was going to be the greatest moneymaker for Tulane in quite some time. Unfortunately, it had to be moved. Did it warrant the ten point jump? I don't know, but now it makes me think about this wager. 21.5 was too low. 31.5 is a different animal, especially with Oklahoma breaking in a mostly new backfield. I'm a fan, so I'm taking Oklahoma. However, I will not actually bet this game. I don't like the half.
(19)Penn State at (12)Wisconsin(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
On the surface, this line looks backwards. Penn State shook off an 0-5 start to win their last four. Wisconsin, after laying 94 points on Illinois and Michigan to open the season, scored just 40 points total over their next four conference games. I don't have much confidence in either offense. I'll take the Badgers at home because Graham Mertz has a lot more potential that Sean Clifford, who was actually benched last year.
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Louisana-Monroe at Kentucky(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ooooh, that's a lot of points. It's totally warranted. The Warhawks lost all ten games last year by an average of 25.8 points. Kentucky gains Penn State transfer Will Levis, but that's not what will cover this. Chris Rodriguez and Kavosiey Smoke anchor a truly devastating rushing attack. Add in speedster, Nebraska transfer, and Kentucky native Wan'Dale Robinson, and at the very least, Kentucky will be fun to watch this year. They're covering this. Monroe might not score.
Western Michigan at Michigan(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I have zero faith in this Michigan offense, but the Broncos lost game-breaker D'Wayne Eskridge. The Wolverine defense is still really good. I feel a lot better about the under than the spread on this one. I'll take Michigan, but I have little confidence in them no matter who is running the team (or the football).
Stanford vs. Kansas State(-2.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is slowly climbing, so I'm locking it in now. The Wildcats are much better with Skylar Thompson under center and Deuce Vaughn is better than anything Stanford has right now. Stanford lost a lot from an offense that was uninspiring to begin with. K-State by double digits.
Army at Georgia State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this one. Army had a truly magical season last year, winning every leg of the Commander in Chief trophy at Michie Stadium. Georgia State returns the dynamic hookup of Cornelius Brown to Cornelius McCoy. The Panthers are a good team, but they are going to have problems with this Army defense. That said, the Georgia State offense is better than anything Army faced last year with the possible exception of Cincinnati. They lost that game by two touchdowns. I'll take Georgia State. Don't fail me now!
Fresno State at (11)Oregon(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's one thing for a defense to look good against UConn. It's going to be quite another for them to look good against Oregon. How wide is the chasm between the Mountain West and the Pac 12? We're about to find out. Fresno has the horses to keep up on offense, but I could totally see Oregon winning this by three touchdowns. I'll take Fresno and the points, but I wouldn't bet this. Not until I know what Oregon's offense is going to look like. Right now it's all hype.
Rice at Arkansas(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is down a couple of points. Come on Vegas, Nebraska transfer Luke McCaffrey isn't going make that much of a difference for Rice. Arkansas loses Feliepe Franks, Trelon Smith, and Rakeem Boyd, so that is a concern. However, KJ Jefferson looked good in limited time last year and Treylon Burks is a stud. It may take the Piggies a quarter or so to get their bearings, but I think they end up running off with this. Give me Arkansas.
(1)Alabama(-19.5) vs. (14)Miami(FL) at Tuscaloosa East (Atlanta)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Is the chasm really this wide between 1 and 14? If so, yeah, let's expand the playoffs to 12 teams. Makes perfect sense. Sometimes the NCAA can be such idiots. As for the game, Miami adds Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo to an already pretty solid offense. Alabama has appropriately reloaded, but this feels high. I've learned not to bet against the Tide in out-of-conference games, especially big matchups like this one, but I think an experienced Miami squad can hang around. Bama wins, but closer to 14 points than 20.
Miami(OH) at (8)Cincinnati(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As you will find out, I like posting little bits of information in here. Would you believe that the Redhawks actually lead the all time series against Cincinnati 59-58? The Redhawks haven't beaten Cincinnati since 2005 though. However, Cincinnati hasn't covered this number since 2013. This is a prove-it game for me. If Cincinnati truly is a top-ten team, they need to prove it here. I think they do. They return a lot on offense and defense. Give me Cincy.
(17)Indiana at (18)Iowa(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I have to hand it to the Big Ten(14). They have given us some very entertaining conference games early in the season. This promises to be one of them. Indiana is really going to miss Stevie Scott and Whop Philyor, but they still have the electric Michael Penix back at quarterback and Ty Fryfogle at receiver. This Iowa defense will be tested. Indiana was able to beat Wisconsin without Penix and nearly beat a very hyped Ole Miss team in the Outback Bowl without Penix as well. I think Indiana could flirt with the top ten again this year and I'm not sure Iowa can. It begins here. Indiana for the outright win!
Marshall(-2.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's been a while since the Middies have been dogs at home. Xavier Arline is the only Middie with meaningful experience, but Marshall lost Brenden Knox, who was a do-everything back. Can Grant Wells win this by himself? Maybe. I'm expecting an ugly game, which favors Navy. I'll take the Middies at home, but I don't trust it.
West Virginia(-2.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
We get an old Big East rivalry here. West Virginia did a great job of uglying up games last year and this year will be no different. Maryland has some good pieces, but I don't think these defense can stop a horse like Leddie Brown. West Virginia is very deep behind Brown and still returns Jaret Doege and Bryce Ford-Wheaton looked like he could be the big-play receiver they were lacking last year. I need to see more from Taulia Tagovailoa to prove he can carry this team. I see West Virginia by double digits.
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is slipping, and I guess I get it. Mississippi State fell apart after dismembering LSU in the opener last year. Mike Leach still has co-starters at quarterback and about 25 guys who can catch a pass. It's a DFS nightmare. It's also a nightmare for opposing defenses. La Tech just wont be able to keep up. Mississippi State screws around just enough to not cover spreads like this. I'm taking them, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet it because I don't trust them.
Miami(OH) at (8)Cincinnati(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
As you will find out, I like posting little bits of information in here. Would you believe that the Redhawks actually lead the all time series against Cincinnati 59-58? The Redhawks haven't beaten Cincinnati since 2005 though. However, Cincinnati hasn't covered this number since 2013. This is a prove-it game for me. If Cincinnati truly is a top-ten team, they need to prove it here. I think they do. They return a lot on offense and defense. Give me Cincy.
Central Michigan at Missouri(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Missouri loses Larry Rountree, but Tyler Badie is a lot more explosive than his predecessor. Connor Bazelak looks like another good Missouri quarterback. I had a man-crush on CMU WR Kalil Pimpleton last year and I'm looking forward to watching him again. He alone can't stop the Tigers from running off with this. Give me Missouri and expect a breakout game from Tyler Badie.
Massachusetts at Pittsburgh(-37.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's a lot of points, but UMass might be as bad as New Mexico State. I'm not kidding. The only reason I'm lowering the bet is in case Pitt lets off the gas before halftime. This game wont be in question after the first ten minutes. Give me Pitt.
(23)Louisiana at (21)Texas(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You remember the Cajuns, right? The team that shocked Iowa State in the opener last year? Don't expect a repeat performance. This defense is good enough to give Texas problems, but they don't beat Iowa State without two huge special teams plays. That is probably Texas's most solid unit. However, that doesn't mean I think the spread should be this high. I can see the Cajuns giving Texas all they want. I'll say this stays a one score game. Give me Louisiana.
San Jose State at (15)USC(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. The Spartans had statistically the best defense in the Mountain West last year. The problem is that Kedon Slovis is very good. So is Drake London. And the Trojans got both Keaontay Ingram and Jake Smith from Texas. Tahj Washington came in from Memphis. K.D. Nixon migrated from Colorado. This team has five receivers who are going to play on Sunday at some point. Who cares if they can't run? I like the Spartans a lot and I think they hang around for a while, but USC simply has too many offensive weapons. Give me the Trojans.
Akron at Auburn(-37.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Akron is ridiculously bad, but Auburn lost Gus Malzahn to UCF. Well, they didn't "lose" him. They fired him. In comes Brian Harsin from Boise State. Most of the same players are still here, which is great news for the Tigers. We could see a lot of progress from Bo Nix. Tank Bigsby, is, well, a tank. There's too much talent on offense for Auburn not to cover this. I'll take the Tigers since it will take an act of God (or a turnover in the end zone) for Akron to score.
Syracuse(-1.5) at Ohio
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Man, I love week 1. When else would you see an ACC school heading to Athens, Ohio? It's awesome! The game might not be, but just the fact that the Orange are going there is a big thing. Syracuse is coming in with two quarterbacks. Ohio returns most of what they had last year along with gaining UNLV transfer Armani Rogers. I'm going with Syracuse just because I think Dino Babers is a hell of a coach. That's all I've got for analysis.
Oregon State at Purdue(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The loss of Jermar Jefferson is a big deal for the Beavers. Purdue loses possibly the greatest athlete they've ever had in Rondale Moore, but they played without him for most of last season anyway. I like the experience of the Purdue offense to get this covered.
Texas Tech at Houston(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Red Raiders as almost a touchdown favorite, but the bottom has fallen out of this line. I'm not sure why. Oregon transfer Tyler Shough should thrive in this system. Sa'Rodorick Thompson is a really good back. Houston is fighting the Red Raiders with skill players that defected from Lubbock. That means the Houston defense should know this offense better than the will that of most opponents? Will it be enough? I still don't think so. Give me Tech.
Baylor(-13.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Bobcats are usually good at home, but that applied when facing other Fun Belt opponents, not when the bullies from Waco come down I-35. Charlie Brewer left for Utah, so the Bears will have to incorporate a new QB. He'll have the benefit of speedster Trestan Ebner in the backfield and a strong receiver corps anchored by R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton. Sorry Texas State, this is going to get ugly. Give me Baylor.
(5)Georgia vs. (3)Clemson(-3.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is bouncing, which means the bettors are leaning towards Georgia. Who can blame them? This team took off when JT Daniels got healthy last year. They return most of their skill players and turned LSU TE Arik Gilbert into a receiver. That's a matchup nightmare for anyone. Clemson has to replace Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Amari Rodgers. That's a lot of production to do on the fly, especially when opening against a top five team. Bulldogs straight up!
Florida Atlantic at (13)Florida(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Florida lost a lot to the NFL, but they still have a lot of playmakers in this offense. Expecting them to cover a line like this in week 1 is a lot to ask. Or it would be if they were playing a good team. They're not. Gators roll.
UTSA at Illinois(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How telling is it that the Illini, after spanking Nebraska, are only five point favorites in most places? Hey, don't look at me. I like the Roadrunners outright. Frank Harris is a good quarterback. Sincere McCormick is the best running back you've never heard of. Zakhari Franklin looks like he's going to be a star. Illinois is a better team with Art Sitkowski under center, but I still don't think they can run well enough to win this. Keep in mind that UTSA only lost to number 19 Louisiana by seven points in the First Responder Bowl last year. They return almost the same exact team. Meep meep! Roadrunners straight up!
Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi has to be better than Ross Bowers and Harrison Waylee looks like a really good back. Georgia Tech's move from an option to a spread offense last year went predictably tough, but the Wreck has some good players on that team. Jahmyr Gibbs is a whole lot of fun to watch. This is a pretty high number, but I think Georgia Tech gets to it.
Kent State at (6)Texas A&M(-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I do like Kent, but this Aggies defense is going to make them look terrible. There is some concern (for me anyway) that the Aggies will give a lot of work to their passing game trying to get it comfortable, but at some point Isaiah Spiller will take over this game. I don't like the half, but I'll just lower the bet. I can't go against the Aggies here.
Southern Mississippi at South Alabama(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
My biggest question here is whether the Jaguars can stop Frank Gore Jr. I know the Eagles are going to have problems throwing the ball once again. The Desmond Trotter to Jalen Tolbert connection is still there in Mobile and I know that the boys from Hattiesburg can't stop that. Trotter threw for 299 on the Eagles last year in Hattiesburg. Tolbert was on the other end of 169 of those. Give me USA.
(16)LSU(-2.5) at UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bruins gained a lot of respect last week with a strong opener, but I still have questions. Dorian Thompson-Robinson didn't have a very good game. Zach Charbonnet is a great find for the Bruins, but will he find room against this defense? When your last two non-conference wins are Hawaii four years apart, it seems like a tall order to beat LSU. Max Johnson played well down the stretch last year and Kayshon Boutte is the next great LSU wideout. I'll take UCLA since I did in Pick em, but I'm not betting this one.
Nevada at California(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cal returns most offensive starters from last year, but considering how badly they struggled most of the time, is that really a good thing? Carson Strong is being hyped as a NFL prospect and the best Nevada player since Colin Kaepernick. If he truly is, the Wolfpack should win this outright, right? I'll buy in for now. Give me Nevada. Romeo Doubs is better than any receiver Cal has.
BYU(-12.5) vs. Arizona at Las Vegas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The last time we saw Arizona on a football field, they were getting embarrassed by arch-rival Arizona State. They lost the Territory Cup by 63 points in what might be the most embarrassing loss for the Wildcats in the last 50 years. Now they are strolling out a true freshman at QB. It doesn't much matter to me who the heir to Zach Wilson is. BYU could cover this wit their third string. BYU by four touchdowns or so.
New Mexico State at San Diego State(-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Let's see.....the Aggies lost to a below average UTEP team by 27 points. This is too low. Aztecs roll!
Utah State at Washington State(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yuck! Bet the under and don't touch the spread. I'll take Utah State, but you couldn't pay me to bet this.
(9)Notre Dame(-7.5) at Florida State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This spread tells you all you need to know. Vegas doesn't even know what to do with the Irish without Ian Book. McKenzie Milton was a complete stud for UCF in 2018 and we haven't seen him play since the horrific leg injury. I'm old enough to remember how bad Jack Coan was as a starter at Wisconsin, but Kyren Williams is going to be a real problem for the Seminoles. I don't like the half though. Give me Florida State.
Louisville vs. Mississippi(-9.5) at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Louisville returns Malik Cunningham, but this Ole Miss offense is loaded. Matt Corral will throw 50 times or more. Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner are a lethal backfield. Dontario Drummond might be the best receiver in school history. I like what Louisville returns, but this Mississippi offense could be special. Give me Ole Miss.
I wound up with a total of nine one point bets, 18 twos, 14 threes, two fours, and three fives. I usually go lighter earlier in the season, but you should have a pretty good idea of where I'm leaning. If you do have specific questions, the Rotoballer premium chat comes in handy. You might also find me trolling on Twitter. You may also find me at a random college football game. I'm an addict. Don't judge!
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