NFL Best Bets for Week 5: Novig Sports Prediction Market

October 9, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 5 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

It's Week 5, and we are slowly but surely starting to see the true colors of most NFL teams. Injuries to key players can always throw a wrench in our models, but with more data, we can start to feel a lot more confident about our wagers against the spread and moneyline bets. If you read this piece last week, we finished 3-1 with the Washington Commanders failing to cover after leading early in that London game, but losing Marcus Mariota to injury.

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets for Week 5 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator right here, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

NFL Underdog Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from NoVig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at New England Patriots (49%) 

The Raiders are a good football team. They were right there with the Chiefs last week, blow for blow, until they had a huge turnover on a kick return late in the game, finally turning the tide in Kansas City's favor.

They're now 4-0 against the spread this season and the only team to be able to make that claim. Brock Bowers gives this offense a huge jolt, Kirk Cousins is playing well, and their defense has been much better than last season, creating a lot of turnovers.

Kirk Cousins MAGIC FOR THE TOUCHDOWN!

@KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/ADaylXSjLZ

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

The Patriots pulled off a tough win against Buffalo last week, but this team still has plenty of flaws, and I really don't think they have the firepower on offense to pull away from the Raiders, or a strong enough defense to totally shut them down. The Raiders are live dogs to win, and my favorite underdog against the spread as they're getting that extra half point at 3.5 that we love when backing dogs.

New York Giants (+3.5) at Washington Commanders (49%)

Another team who I think can win on the road is New York, and we are getting another juicy number on them with 3.5 points AND plus money odds. Sign me up!

This team finally found their footing in the post-Dart injury era last week, beating the Cardinals 36-24. They're now 3-1 on the season and 3-1 ATS, yet they're not getting any respect against a flawed Commanders team that just got mauled by the Colts in London.

What a DART by Jameis Winston 🎯

AZvsNYG on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/ClgEH5jvhM

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

Jayden Daniels is back for Washington, but Jameis Winston looked good last week and has the weapons in Isaiah Likely and Malik Nabers to put up points against this Washington defense. Even if they can't pull out the win, we have field goal insurance with the extra half point.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

NFL Favorite Picks Against the Spread

Chicago Bears (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers (49%) 

All three of my bets ATS this week are plus money! Let's go! I have a hard time not loving the Bears this week, as they absolutely dominated the Jets last week, controlling the football for nearly 75% of the game time.

Chicago is 3-1 ATS this season and has rolled over their last two opponents with two different backup quarterbacks. Their rushing offense is strong, and their defense has raised their game considerably.

Tyson Bagent plays with A+ timing and throws a beautiful ball https://t.co/w1l98n2jl5

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 6, 2026

I know the Packers won last week, but their defense is still a major concern, as well as their lack of a run game. This Packers team is struggling to find their identity, while the Bears have flourished under the leadership of Ben Johnson. Chicago wins on the road and beats the Pack for the third straight time. And honestly, it might get ugly.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive $25 in trade credits when you deposit $10.

You also get a free YEAR of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NFL Game Totals

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 42.5 points (53%)

This is one of the lower totals on the board, but I do spread and total projections for every game, every week, and this is one of the lowest I've seen so far this year. I have it projected at 37-38 points, giving us quite a bit of wiggle room for the under, despite the low total.

Both teams have gone under their totals in three of four games this season, and would have gone under this week's total of 42.5 in three games each.

The Chargers have gone under this total now in eight of their last ten, and Denver's offense has been struggling so badly that Sean Payton has taken over play-calling duties himself.

Sean Payton to reporters today: “We’ll make a change offensively. I’ll call the plays.” https://t.co/4Nht0aIbxX

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 8, 2026

I think the Chargers could actually win this game, but that's not the play here. It's just backing a low-scoring game between two offenses that have been underperforming. This AFC West matchup should be one of the uglier games on the slate.

Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading!

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