NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 5) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2026)

October 8, 2026

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season. Andersen's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season. We're just about a quarter of the way through the season, which means we're finally able to determine which teams' successes and failures may be flukes, and which ones may be legitimate.

Some questions do still exist, though. When will the Chargers or Texans get a win? Are the Patriots and Browns the best teams in their divisions? Will Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston hold onto their starting jobs for most of the season?

Every week of the 2026 NFL season, I'll lock in picks for each game and tier them based on my confidence level for the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized. Let's get to the picks for Week 5.

Week 5 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 15 - Bengals at Dolphins

Even if Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) isn't able to play in this Week 5 matchup, we're still taking the Bengals to steamroll the winless Dolphins. Miami may be the worst team in football, after all. This game could be over after 15 minutes, as Miami ranks fourth-worst in first-quarter points this season (1.8 points per game) while Cincinnati ranks eighth-best (5.3 points per game).

• 14 - Broncos at Chargers

Denver's offense has some major question marks, but things should get better with Sean Payton taking on more of the offensive play-calling duties. Facing a 0-4 Chargers squad, there's a clear get-right opportunity for the Denver offense, which has tallied the sixth-fewest yards in football entering Week 5. Fortunately for Payton's team, the Chargers' defense has allowed the eighth-most points per game.

Imagine before the year, I told you that Mike McDaniel would evolve into Adam Gase.

This is like Gyarados evolving into Magikarp.

The NFL is absolutely insane.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) October 7, 2026

• 13 - Texans at Titans

It's a battle between two 0-4 teams, with the loser claiming sole possession of last place in the AFC South. Picking a 0-4 team to win as a "lock" may be bold, but the opposing Titans are embarrassingly bad. Tennessee has the fewest offensive yards per game, whereas C.J. Stroud's squad at least ranks above the league median in expected points added per play. Plus, Stroud has yet to throw an interception.

• 12 - Lions at Cardinals

There was some real buzz around the Cardinals after their Week 1 win, but it turns out that game was more of a testament to the Chargers' weaknesses than Arizona's strengths. The Cardinals' defense has surrendered the fourth-most points per game, which is a perfect match for the Lions, whose offense ranks fifth in points scored, sixth in total yards, and sixth in EPA per play.

This makes sense from a real life perspective (which is all they care about) but def isn’t ideal for fantasy https://t.co/OL17izsCXu

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 4, 2026

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 5 Pick 'Em Pools

• 11 - Eagles at Jaguars

Things are going downhill fast for the Eagles. DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) are trending in the wrong direction for Week 5, offensive lineman Lane Johnson retired after the Eagles' loss last Sunday, and the Eagles' offense ranks fourth-worst in EPA per play. Philadelphia might already be embarking on a mini rebuild after trading away starting lineman Cam Jurgens on Wednesday.

The Eagles are in absolute shambles right now.

DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley are injured.

The passing game is completely dysfunctional.

Lane Johnson just retired.

Can you say dead last in the NFC East?

That's where they're headed.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) October 6, 2026

• 10 - Raiders at Patriots

The Patriots pulled off a statement victory against the Bills in Week 4, as Drake Maye bounced back with 269 passing yards, 54 rushing yards, and three touchdowns. We're not ready to call New England a lock after such a small sample size, but the Pats seem to have an advantage over Vegas on both sides of the ball right now.

• 9 - Bills at Rams

The Rams' offense is approaching full health with Puka Nacua rejoining the receiver room last week. Los Angeles certainly wasn't at its best on Sunday, but they still managed to beat Philadelphia on the road. That's better than Buffalo, which dropped a key home divisional game against the Patriots. The Bills' defense has allowed the sixth-most yards this year, while the Rams' offense has racked up the second-most.

Chance to take over the division and the entire Bills team decided to no show

The defense is COMMICALLY bad - Jim Leonhard conversation needs to be had and Beane's seat should be on fire

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 4, 2026

• 8 - 49ers at Seahawks

Don't look now, but the 49ers might be the early Super Bowl favorite. Despite losing almost half their team to injury, the Niners are 4-0 with an NFL-best 0.25 EPA per play on offense. Defensively, they've allowed the third-fewest points while Seattle has allowed the fifth-fewest. These two teams always play each other close, so we're not willing to call this a lock. However, we feel pretty good about the Niners against any opponent.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 5

• 7 - Vikings at Saints

Minnesota has some glaring holes on offense, but this Vikings defense might be the best in the NFL. The unit has allowed the fewest points and fifth-fewest yards this season. The Saints have shown a tendency to fall behind early before mounting a late comeback effort. Late-game momentum will be significantly harder to attain against a Vikings defense allowing just 0.8 fourth-quarter points per game (fewest in the NFL).

• 6 - Browns at Jets

The Browns have defied the odds, winning three games in a row and moving into a tie with the Ravens for first place in the AFC North. Their schedule hasn't been super challenging, but that won't matter too much in Week 5. The Jets are a very beatable team, and Cleveland should cruise to victory while claiming sole possession of first place in its division.

• 5 - Buccaneers at Cowboys

Jalon Daniels performed better than we expected from an undrafted free agent quarterback last week, albeit against a very suspect Packers team. We could see a similar result against the Cowboys, who are much better on offense but have seen their defense limp to a third-worst mark in terms of yards allowed.

• 4 - Ravens at Falcons

Just when it seemed like the Falcons were headed for a season of misery, Michael Penix Jr. swooped in and saved the team. Now, the trio of Penix, Bijan Robinson, and Drake London appears to be nearly unstoppable. This is a very good Ravens team on paper, but with Lamar Jackson (ankle) looking unlikely to play, we're picking Atlanta to get a third consecutive win in its third consecutive primetime game.

Bijan Robinson now has 2,181 scrimmage yards and 17 TDs in 16 career games with Michael Penix Jr

Almost at a full seasons worth

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 6, 2026

• 3 - Bears at Packers

The Bears have survived two games without Caleb Williams (hamstring), and they'll remain without him in Week 5 against the Packers. Green Bay is 2-2, but their wins came against a Jets team that mismanaged the clock and a Buccaneers team led by Jalon Daniels. We're taking the Bears, whose defense has allowed the third-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points so far this year.

• 2 - Giants at Commanders

This one is a true toss-up, at least until we get some more clarity on the Commanders' quarterback situation. Right now, Jayden Daniels (elbow) is trending in the right direction, and we'd take Washington if he plays. If he can't suit up, there's a case to be made that Jameis Winston could out-play a Commanders defense that has been the definition of mediocre in 2026.

• 1 - Colts at Steelers

The Colts won last week, but it was a softer matchup against a Commanders team that had no Terry McLaurin (hamstring) and played Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback for most of the game. We don't have much praise for the Steelers, either, after they lost to the Browns. Still, we're taking Pittsburgh, largely thanks to the game-wrecking presence of T.J. Watt.

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