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John Johnson's five fantasy football bold predictions for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season. Expert predictions for Cam Skattebo, KC Concepcion Jr., Michael Wilson, Isaiah Likely and Aaron Jones Sr.
Fantasy football is all about drafting the best players and winning games. That's easy, right? Well, as long as you draft the handful of elite players that are available where you pick, they stay healthy all season, you have an easy schedule, and your players crush it for you in the fantasy playoffs, everything is fine.
That's not really a thing that happens every season, and it's extremely difficult to pull off. One draft mistake or injury to a key player on your roster can leave you scrambling to make sure your season doesn't end early. Knowing which of your remaining players to start can be critical each week when you don't have a dominant top-5 player at each position.
The problem of who to start is harsher in smaller leagues, where the talent pool is less spread out and fantasy managers often lose their games by not knowing which of their players to start each week. Maybe bold predictions can help you make the right decision for Week 5!
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Cam Skattebo Cracks 20 PPR Fantasy Points
New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo hasn't impressed fantasy football managers this season, but it's understandable why. He's still recovering from a massive, season-ending ankle injury he suffered midway through his rookie season last year.
It was expected for him to get off to a slow start. The season-ending injury to Giants QB1 Jaxson Dart in Week 2 didn't help the offense, but his backup, QB Jameis Winston, is a gunslinger who helps move the ball down the field, even if he turns it over at a high rate.
Cam Skattebo rushed 18 times for 58 yards (3.2 ypc), compared to an expected 94 yards (5.2 ypc) based on player positioning at the snap.
His -2.0 ypc difference is the worst among any rusher with 10+ carries in a game this season. https://t.co/K9Bj8E32y1
— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) October 4, 2026
This is a bold prediction because he just hasn't played great this season. But he's getting healthier each week, and his backup, RB Najee Harris, lost a fumble last week. He's also been inefficient. The Giants likely brought him in to relieve some of the load from Skattebo's shoulders and get RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. off the field.
This could be the week where everything clicks against a Washington Commanders team that's been underperforming on both sides of the ball.
KC Concepcion Jr. Tops 100 Receiving Yards, Scores Touchdown
While Cleveland Browns rookie wide receiver Denzel Boston has made the flashier plays and scored more receiving touchdowns, it's been their first-round WR pick, KC Concepcion, that's been the clear leader in targets. Through four games, Concepcion has six more targets than Boston.
The Browns will face the New York Jets in Week 5. They've been pretty stiff against fantasy receivers overall, but are more vulnerable to slot production. Boston typically plays on the outside while Concepcion is a slot guy, so this gives him a slight boost.
KC Concepcion with the YAC 🏃♂️
@PITvsCLE on Prime Video
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/f92mKaYL3u— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2026
He has 17 targets over his last two games, and his snap share on offense increased from below 70 percent in each of his first two games to 86 percent in Week 3 and 92 percent in Week 4. He's impressed on film and his per-route metrics show great efficiency.
He is also elusive and quick after the catch. He could quickly become a magnet for designed targets to help Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson with easy completions and to get the offense moving when it's struggling. He has a 24.3 percent target share overall, and his 44.4 percent designed target share ranks 2nd in the NFL.
KC Concepcion, you are a BAAAAD MAN! https://t.co/LK5VMgZgvu
— Cam White (@RouteUniverse9) October 2, 2026
Even though the matchup isn't insanely amazing, Concepcion's breakout game is coming.
Michael Wilson Finishes As Top-3 WR With 30+ PPR Fantasy Points
Speaking of incredible matchups, the Cardinals get a home game in Week 5 against the Detroit Lions. Detroit's defense has been truly horrendous this season -- they rank dead last in the NFL in multiple categories, and have been a gold mine for fantasy production for opposing players.
In addition to missing two of their key defensive backs due to injuries, their defensive coordinator's scheme doesn't appear to be working. He's been defensive about it in interviews, so he might be on his way out. He's still there for now, and the numbers his defense has produced are eye-popping.
Lions defensive ranks:
- Total Defense (32 of 32)
- Pass Defense (32 of 32)
- 3rd Down Defense (32 of 32)
- 1st Down Rec% (32 of 32)
- Scrm Plays Against (32 of 32)
- Total EPA (32 of 32)
- Big Plays by Pass (32 of 32)
- Big Plays by Run (32 of 32)
- Pass TDs Allowed (32 of 32) https://t.co/oPOJbKnyMH— QBgami (@QBgami) October 8, 2026
This matchup comes just as Wilson is hitting his stride, with a ridiculous 30 targets over his past two games. Now he gets one of the worst defenses in the past five years, and has a quarterback that's willing to pass heavily and target him at a high rate.
He's not the team's No. 1 pass-catcher -- that's tight end Trey McBride. Expecting McBride to have 30 or more PPR fantasy points this game is a little less bold, since he's been crushing it this year and did so all of last year.
Michael Wilson played another good game vs the Giants. His route running has clearly taken a big jump this year. Once he takes that leap vs press man, whew man, gonna be some interesting discussions about his placement amongst WRs. Top 25 WR as of today, and ascending quickly. https://t.co/4kh6GfiB34
— Jason Lewis (@Jasonlewis54) October 6, 2026
Film analysis of Wilson this season should lead you to believe that he's even better than last year. Wide receivers, even those that are playing well, often have a ton of room to grow. The position is full of subtle nuances that can take years to master.
Wilson has elite upside and a dream matchup coming up. It should result in a monster game and talk of him being a top-5 wideout in fantasy football.
Isaiah Likely Catches Two Touchdowns
Likely (knee/groin) has maintained an impressive target share through four games with the Giants, despite not matching his gaudy Week 1 fantasy scoring total since. He leads the Giants in targets in those contests, with 35 compared to second-best Nabers' (knee) 26 looks in the passing game so far.
He was targeted 12 times in Week 4 by quarterback Jameis Winston, though he only caught seven of those passes for 66 yards. The usage has been elite so far, and with Winston's gunslinger play style, it should result in excellent production in Week 5.
Jameis Winston throws another interception despite Isaiah Likely being wide open https://t.co/YvWjVtXxyZ
— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants) October 4, 2026
Hopefully he can shake off a bit of his rust, because Likely ranks second in targets per route run, first in slot snaps, second in first-read targets, and second in unrealized air yards among tight ends this season. The ingredients are in place for another big game against the Washington Commanders in Week 5.
They allow the fifth-most PPR fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. If Winston can avoid the yips, Likely should finish as a top-3 TE this week and reach the end zone multiple times.
Aaron Jones Sr. Finishes As A Top-5 RB
Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr.'s career is clearly on the decline. He's 31 years old and has seen his rushing efficiency decline in each season dating back to 2022. Injuries may have taken their toll on his explosiveness and power, as he was a regular presence on his team's injury report in each of the last few seasons.
But his fantasy production is benefiting from a huge role as the Vikings' clear lead back -- the injury to RB Jordan Mason (thumb) has led to Minnesota giving Jones a ridiculous 24.7 opportunities per game since Week 1, or in games that Mason didn't play. He's been heavily involved as both a runner and pass-catcher.
Aaron Jones gives the Vikings the lead!
GBvsMIN on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/BiCfrUeIuC— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2026
Jones is still effective enough to put up solid fantasy numbers with a big role. This week, he gets a Cinderella matchup, as the Vikings will face the New Orleans Saints, who have a defense that's been absolutely pummeled by running backs this season. They've allowed 31.3 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing backfields so far in 2026.
The Saints have been gashed by allowing over 5.2 yards per carry, nine total rushing touchdowns, and a whopping 33.8 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. That's nearly four more points per game than the next-worst team, the Detroit Lions, and there are a lot of teams bunched up around the Lions. It's an impressive gap.
BIJAN GETS THINGS STARTED EARLY
@ATLvsNO on ESPN Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/2WkWScWreu
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2026
In Week 5, they allowed Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson to score a 59-yard touchdown on his first rush of the game. Their defensive line has been getting completely manhandled by opposing offensive linemen, who have opened up huge gaps for their RBs to run through.
The Saints now have a multi-year history of allowing huge swaths of yards before contact. Jones should benefit from this and have his biggest game of the 2026 season as a result. He should be started in all fantasy football leagues as an RB1.
