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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season. Kipp's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season! For anyone who isn't familiar, each week we give you our recommended Survivor Pool picks to target and also avoid for 2026 Survivor leagues.
This week I'm pinch-hitting on this feature for our friend Kevin Tompkins -- kind of like the backup quarterback coming off the bench.
Our top pick last week was Minnesota, so thankfully we all survived if the Vikings were selected. We will look to go 2-for-2 on targets again this week, as the Seahawks also knocked off the Chargers last week.
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Win Probabilities For Week 5
Before jumping into the picks for Week 5, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| DAL | -455 | 81.98% | 78.67% |
| HOU | -360 | 78.26% | 75.08% |
| CIN | -355 | 78.02% | 74.78% |
| JAX | -325 | 76.47% | 73.35% |
| DET | -238 | 70.41% | 67.50% |
| NE | -192 | 65.75% | 63.09% |
| DEN | -185 | 64.91% | 62.25% |
| ATL | -180 | 64.29% | 61.64% |
| WAS | -175 | 63.64% | 60.92% |
| SEA | -155 | 60.78% | 58.30% |
| LAR | -155 | 60.78% | 58.30% |
| CHI | -148 | 59.68% | 57.21% |
| PIT | -142 | 58.68% | 56.35% |
| NYJ | -130 | 56.52% | 54.27% |
| MIN | -130 | 56.52% | 54.27% |
| CLE | 110 | 47.62% | 45.73% |
| NO | 110 | 47.62% | 45.73% |
| IND | 120 | 45.45% | 43.65% |
| GB | 124 | 44.64% | 42.79% |
| SF | 130 | 43.48% | 41.70% |
| BUF | 130 | 43.48% | 41.70% |
| NYG | 145 | 40.82% | 39.08% |
| BAL | 150 | 40.00% | 38.36% |
| LAC | 154 | 39.37% | 37.75% |
| LV | 160 | 38.46% | 36.91% |
| ARI | 195 | 33.90% | 32.50% |
| PHI | 260 | 27.78% | 26.65% |
| MIA | 280 | 26.32% | 25.22% |
| TEN | 285 | 25.97% | 24.92% |
| TB | 350 | 22.22% | 21.33% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out; it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the Survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 5.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I do not usually make a habit of selecting Thursday Night Football games, but the setup for the Cowboys at home against a banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad is compelling. The Bucs will be without Baker Mayfield for the foreseeable future, and this game is currently sitting with the largest spread, in favor of the Cowboys.
Dallas will be entering this game fresh off a 34-30 victory over the Houston Texans and now sits at 2-2. Dallas has one of the better passing offenses in the game, averaging over 266 passing yards per game and ranking sixth-best in the league. It is also averaging over 30 points per game and ranks third-best in the league in this category.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has struggled to score, averaging just 19 points per game and ranking 25th overall. While the Bucs defense has been solid this season, they will likely have a hard time defending this Dallas offense, and it seems unlikely that the Tampa Bay offense will be able to keep up here.
Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb for 6️⃣
WASvsDAL on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/Kk3G5Twly6— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
A recurring theme in this article is going to be picking against the Miami Dolphins, and this worked out well last week with the Minnesota Vikings, although that game was a lot closer than many of us had hoped.
I do not love picking teams who are on the road in Survivor, but since this is the Dolphins, I am willing to take the chance as we did two weeks ago in this same spot with Kansas City. The Bengals are coming into this matchup off a loss at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars and currently sit at 2-2.
The Bengals will have plenty of motivation to right the ship in this one, and they should be able to put up some offensive numbers against these Dolphins. Overall, the Bengals rank within the top 10 in passing yards per game and points scored. They are averaging just under 26 points per game.
Meanwhile, Miami ranks 27th in the league, allowing an average of nearly 28 points per game. They have also allowed an average of nearly 140 rushing yards and nearly 240 passing yards per game, both of which rank in the bottom half of the league. The Bengals should be able to cruise in this one.
Tee Higgins ARE YOU SERIOUS?! 😱
@CINvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/3D6JpNBA3Q— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026
Also Consider Using
- New England Patriots (vs. LV)
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 5
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Houston will enter this game against division-rival Tennessee 0-4 and fresh off a loss at home to the Dallas Cowboys. This team is absolutely reeling and needs a win in the worst way. While that win will likely come this week at Tennessee, I don't want to put my entry on them in this spot.
Picking a road team in a divisional matchup is not the best of strategies to employ when making Survivor selections, and that holds here. Tennessee has also proved to be quite a thorn in its opponents' sides this season. While the Titans are 0-4, each of their previous three games has been decided by one possession, including a 24-18 loss at the Ravens in Week 4.
Furthermore, two of the previous three matchups between these teams played at Tennessee were decided by one possession, so I am not in a hurry to jump on the Texans in this one.
Cam Ward and Carnell Tate make some magic happen on 4th down!
TENvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/ewObA7nlFj— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
This is a similar scenario to the Texans at Titans matchup, as I do not want to back a team traveling to play a divisional opponent. Additionally, I am still not quite sure what to make of the Broncos. They are sitting at 2-2 through their first four games after starting the season with a gauntlet of a schedule.
The Broncos have beaten the likes of Jacksonville and the Los Angeles Rams, so they have some big wins and should likely handle the Chargers, who are 0-4, but the familiarity of these two with one another has me a bit skittish here.
While I think Denver ultimately pulls this out, I can't quite back it on the road here. That being said, if you want to zig while your mates zag (likely taking the Bengals and Cowboys), I could certainly see a route for taking it here.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I am not sure how many folks will actually be on the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, but I wanted to include them in the write-up since the spread is currently one of the higher spreads on the board, in favor of the Jaguars.
While Jacksonville has looked like the much better team thus far, sitting at 3-1 with wins against Cincinnati and New England, I do not think we have seen the full potential of the Eagles just yet. Last week, they had the Los Angeles Rams on the ropes before ultimately falling 24-20.
While I think Jacksonville ultimately wins this on the strength of its run defense, I would not put it past the Eagles to possibly pull out a victory here. The Jaguars' pass defense has been suspect, allowing nearly 230 passing yards per game, so the Eagles may never be out of this one even if they get down early.
For this reason, this game is a stay-away for me; however, it should be a rather entertaining, albeit likely low-scoring affair.
Also Consider Fading
- Detroit Lions (at ARI)
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