NL Rookies Ready to Break Out

Phil Goyette evaluates the top National League rookies who could break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball.

Every year, there are those rookies who we expect to make a splash right away. In 2020, it was Luis Robert, Kyle Lewis, Alec Bohm, and Sixto Sanchez.

Below are nine of the National League's potential top rookies for 2021, both at the dish and on the mound. I've ranked them in order of how quickly I expect them to make an impact.

While some might take a few weeks or a couple of months to get there, all of these prospects are ready to be difference-makers in fantasy lineups right along with the real-life lineups they burst into.

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Ian Anderson - SP, Atlanta Braves

Ian Anderson burst into the National League like the Kool-Aid Man demolishing a brick wall last season. He’s got a number of unique qualities about his game that make him stand out from the rest of the rookie pack of hurlers this season. The first and most notable feature of Anderson’s delivery is his ability to achieve elite extension given his torso flexibility in his delivery. In his 2020 debut, his fastball release averaged 7.3 feet of extension, adding nearly 2 mph of velocity to a fastball which already averages 94 mph.

Anderson’s second unique quality is an uncanny ability to repeat his delivery regardless of which pitch he’s throwing:

Ian Anderson, Fastball & Changeup, Overlay
The mechanics are overlaid too. ? pic.twitter.com/iCbd2anzBL

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 19, 2021

When you see that overlay you can understand why his changeup has been such an effective weapon against big league competition. Anderson messed around with a sinker in his 2021 debut as well. If he can locate that pitch, it’s another weapon that should help him cut down on walks and pitches thrown, allowing him to work deeper into games.

Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

The story of Ke’Bryan Hayes’s 2020 MLB debut was that of an unexpected power surge. Prior to 2020, Hayes’s best slugging performance in a meaningful sample was a .444 line at Double-A in 2018. But in his MLB debut, he slugged .682! The question is, should we expect this newfound power production to stick around?

Look for some power regression, as Hayes’s xSLG was “only”.486 last year. However, I think his power gains were real. A quick look at his 2020 spray chart shows pop to centerfield and the opposite field power gap:

He also just turned 24, so we shouldn’t be surprised if he continues to add strength to a hit tool that is already above average. Also, there’s room in his batted ball profile for more pull-side flyballs. If he can change his approach to turn on the ball with more frequency, there’s probably some additional home run power he can tap into as he approaches his prime.

Dylan Carlson - OF, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis’s top prospect Dylan Carlson is a switch-hitting outfielder with a knack for finding the barrel. He’s an athletic player with the range to handle center field and the arm to handle right. He’s shown himself to be a hot and cold player in his MLB career so far. Part of that might be tied to a plate approach that has been passive at times:

You can see from Carlson’s 2020 swing/take profile that he was passive at pitches in the heart of the plate (5% below league average swing rate) and the shadow zone (8% below average swing rate). In the small sample of the 2021 season thus far, Carlson has become more aggressive, swinging the bat around league average rates in the heart and shadow zones so far this year. He has the power to turn a more aggressive approach into home runs and extra-base hits, so this is a great development for his fantasy stock moving forward.

Sixto Sanchez - SP, Miami Marlins

Sixto Sanchez throws a diverse arsenal of pitches, all of which dance around the zone and tempt hitters into weak contact:

Quick overlay of Sixto Sanchez's arsenal from the PitchCon tutorial @PitcherList.

This is a moving ballet. pic.twitter.com/cbB8DO9lGi

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) February 19, 2021

His willingness to work in the zone and pitch to contact should theoretically allow him to work deeper into games. It also likely caps his strikeout upside somewhere below the NL's elite punch-out artists. That being said, the only thing holding Sixto back from becoming a rotation stalwart is his arm health.

His minor league career was plagued with various ailments, and now his 2021 season start has been delayed with right shoulder inflammation. If healthy, Sixto can go toe-to-toe with Ian Anderson as the most promising young pitcher in the NL.

Jazz Chisholm - 2B, Miami Marlins

The Marlins pulled a surprising trade at the 2019 trade deadline, sending promising young hurler Zac Gallen to Arizona in exchange for Jazz Chisholm. Chisholm, an international signing for Arizona out of the Bahamas in 2015, has taken the second base job for the Marlins and doesn’t look like he’s going to be relinquishing that role anytime soon.

Faced off against Jacob deGrom this week, Jazz impressed by adjusting during the at-bat to deGrom’s fastball, which was touching 100 mph during the outing:

Best pitcher on the planet
100 MPH
3.6 feet off the ground
Upper tank

Jazz Chisholm is special. 23 years old. pic.twitter.com/kcviH6UaLF

— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) April 10, 2021

The concern with Jazz as a prospect has been his hit tool. However, adjusting to the best pitcher in the game mid at-bat is a sign that Chisholmis potentially developing in that area. If he can continue to improve his approach at the plate, he’s got a gigantic ceiling.

Jonathan India - 2B, Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Jonathan India made great strides at the team’s alternate site during the 2020 COVID-19 shortened season. Then, this spring, India took a big enough stride during spring training that the team named him as the starting second baseman for 2021.

Some of India’s less than impressive statistical lines in the minors can be explained by the fact that he was playing in some pitcher-friendly environments. But he was lauded coming out of the draft for being a player who could impact the game in multiple facets. His range, glove, and arm are all good enough to handle multiple positions at the big league level. His sprint speed early in 2021 is in the 89th percentile of all MLB players. And he’s shown a willingness to take the ball the other way when merited, bolstering his batting average early on.

If you look at his radial chart from MLB Savant, you can see a cluster of batted balls right on the edge of the barrel range:

They are on the right trajectory to do damage, but just not quite hit hard enough. Several of these have been fielded as outs. Basically, India could be a small adjustment away from breaking out for more power soon. And if that happens, his fantasy stock could really take off.

Cristian Pache - OF, Atlanta Braves

Will Cristian Pache’s hit tool develop enough for him to become an impact fantasy player? That’s a question that applies to every prospect on this list, as the hit tool is the tool that’s all about a player’s historical production and future development. Hitting in the MLB is all about making adjustments and adjusting to the adjustments that pitchers make against you.

For Pache, his initial adjustment hasn’t come yet. His chase rate (37.2%) and chase contact rate (12.5%) have been rough, but also suggest that a simple adjustment of not reaching as much could pay big dividends for him. His defense and speed can keep his bat in the lineup as well, giving him more chances to adjust than a lesser prospect might get.

Adbert Alzolay - SP, Chicago Cubs

Adbert Alzolay had a rough first outing of 2021, but there is plenty of reason to remain optimistic for his future chances in the Cubs rotation. The first positive for Alzolay is that he’s a young arm that throws smoke. His fastball averaged 95 mph in 2020, and his four-seamer is a pitch that can generate whiffs up in the zone. He can also generate whiffs on two shapes of breaking balls (a harder slider is probably the better of the two offerings), and has shown some feel for the changeup early on in his career as well:

Adbert Alzolay's first strikeout of the season is against Jackie Bradley Jr. ?

(?: @WatchMarquee) pic.twitter.com/dcWHkZrWjx

— Cubs Zone ™️ (@CubsZone) April 6, 2021

A pitcher that can make a strong lineup look this uncomfortable and foolish is a pitcher that can succeed at the MLB level. Alzolay figures to have the opportunity to pitch in the Cubs rotation all season as long as he stays healthy. This should give him the time to improve, adjust, and gain a feel for his arsenal. He's a sleeper pick to be one of the top rookie pitchers in The Show in 2021.

Spencer Howard - SP, Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies selected Spencer Howard in the 2nd round of the 2017 amateur draft. Howard was a former walk-on at Cal Poly in college, but jumped into day one draft prospect status with an impressive season as a draft-eligible sophomore (8-1, 1.95 ERA). Howard broke out in a 2019 campaign where he carved through all levels of the minor leagues, capping his performance off with six impressive starts in the Arizona Fall League (2.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP).

Howard had a rougher six starts in his MLB debut in 2020, but almost all of his struggles can be tied to a case of gopheritis in his debut (2.22 HR/9, 20.0% HR/FB rate). Howard boasts a strong four-pitch mix and starters frame which should allow him to log big innings at the MLB level. While he’s not currently in the Phillies’ rotation, he’s the next man up in case of injury or poor performance. There’s also the chance the team brings him up in a hybrid relief/starting pitcher role as well. He has the stuff to perform well in either role:

Spencer Howard, Filthy Changeup. ? pic.twitter.com/58aJA0OAQ6

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 10, 2021

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