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We continue to move past the chaos of 2020 and onto a new baseball season full of promise. For fantasy baseball managers, draft season is already upon us.
RotoBaller's rankers, Pierre Camus, Big Pick Nick Mariano, and I have updated our 2021 Mixed League rankings as we now move on to evaluate the keystone position. If you missed them, here are the Catcher and First Base position analysis articles.
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2021 Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen were the #1 most accurate projections system in 2019. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!
Tier One
What a monster first-tier we have at the keystone. Starting with the most exciting, we have Ozzie Albies who was limited to only 29 games (124 PAs) last season due to a bone contusion on his wrist. He still managed six homers and three steals and finished with a .271 BA. He has shown we can safely expect 25/15 over a full season, but through his four seasons, he owns a spread of batting averages at .286, .261, .295, and .271. Due to the small sample of 2020, I am not looking into the high K% or BA, especially considering the usual southpaw destroyer hit just .224 with no bombs against LHP. I am more concerned with where he hits in the lineup this spring, however. The majority of his big league PA have come at the leadoff or number two spot, but with the DH last year mixed with his injury he saw an unsettling percentage of his time in the nine hole. RosterResource currently projects Albies actually hitting fifth in the stacked Braves order which would still be a great run producing scenario, but we ultimately want him sandwiched between Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman for optimal fantasy production.
A player we have much more batting-order confidence in is Whit Merrifield. Many fantasy managers passed on him in 2020 drafts due to drastic decrease in SB from 2018 to 2019, but the 32-year-old went out and stole 12 bases in just 60 games. The .282 BA was certainly fine, but was tied to a BABIP that was more than 50 points lower than the previous two seasons. I fully expect that to bounce back in a big way considering the sprint speed, career-low K%, and the second-highest percentage of hits up the middle in the league paired with a healthy line drive rate. ATC projects 16 HR and 26 SB with a .285 BA for Merrifield in 2021. I think the BA is a bit low, but will gladly take that baseline to go along with outfield eligibility and the addition of Carlos Slamtana to the Royals lineup.
After two solid sources of BA, it's only fair we ride the pendulum's swing to Keston Hiura. After an amazing rookie sample in 2019 where he hit 19 HR, swiped nine bases, and hit .303 across 84 games the encore performance in 2020 fell flat. We expected the .402 BABIP to come down, but it REALLY came down. His .210 xBA was bottom 10 percent in the league and the strikeout rate climbed to a depressing 34.6%. Still just 24 years old and still somehow possessing an impressive barrel rate, there is hope he can turn it around and live out that valuable 30/15 potential. If he is able to improve against the fastball this season (.224 BA, 41.5 Whiff% in 2020), the 67th overall NFBC ADP will prove to be a steal hitting cleanup for the Brew Crew.
Cavan Biggio seems to slowly drop down my rankings every time I look closer into his 695 big league PA. I certainly wouldn't classify him as a fade, and I gladly have plenty of best ball points shares due to the moderate speed and sexy OBP at a thin position, but I'd be hard-pressed to find a reason to pull the trigger in 5x5 Roto. The good news is the Blue Jays lineup will score plenty of runs this season after adding George Springer and Marcus Semien to an already dangerous group, and as previously mentioned Biggio can get on base and run. The bad news is he will likely never hit for average, and the power looks questionable at best, see his Baseball Savant profile below. It'd be unfair to show a sliver of optimism to Hiura and not provide the same chance for the 25 year old Biggio, but I think it's a far lower ceiling.
If you miss out on Albies, DJL, and Merrifield and prefer safety over flashy, Brandon Lowe is your man. Lowe took some great steps at the plate in 2020 and it will be exciting getting to watch it play out over a full season. While shining in Barrel% and some expected statistics like xSLG and xwOBA, its the old-school stats that lure me in. For starters, his .285 ISO easily led second basemen, and his BB/K doubled from 2019. The most satisfying improvement was against left-handed pitchers though. After suffering through a .674 OPS and 52.9 K%(!) against lefties in 2019, Lowe boasted a 1.137 OPS and 23.3 K% vs southpaws in just eight fewer PA in 2020. He lacks double-digit SB and the zesty "untapped potential" of a Biggio or Hiura, but he is by far the most-polished hitter at this point in their careers.
Tier Two
There were plenty of doubters when it came to Ketel Marte's 2019 production. Regression was expected for the 32 HR, 10 SB, and the .329 BA. Now realize he only got 195 PA to prove them wrong, but it certainly looks like 2019 will be a large blip on the his career-radar. Marte only hit two HR and stole one base in 2020, while the BA dropped to .287. Before I go label him as an expensive Luis Arraez, I will say he experienced wrist inflammation that eventually landed him on the IL. Marte does not know when the injury initially occurred, and potentially could have been an explanation for the sapped power. The one good takeaway from 2020 was despite a down year with a bum wrist, he still hit for average, which means he can still knock in and score plenty of runs. The volume will never be in doubt with his spot near the top of the Dbacks lineup is as solidified as they come. ATC projects 20 HR, 8 SB, and a .290 BA for Marte this season. I'll take the under on HR ever so slightly, but the other four categories can be a nice boost around pick 80.
Max Muncy also experienced a disappointing 2020, as he experienced his lowest BA, OBP, and SLG as a Dodger. The EV, LA, and hard-hit rate dropped for a second straight year, and the BABIP reached a career-low .203. He did lower the strikeout rate and the contact slightly rose so expect some positive BABIP regression, but he also experienced a career-high shift% so I'm not expecting it to rise significantly. 30 bombs with a sub-.250 BA isn't as exciting as it used to be, but 1B, 2B, and 3B position eligibility sure is.
Tier Three
Jeff McNeil now has over 1000 big league PA and is rocking an impressive .319/.383/.501 slash. The guy is just a great hitter. We know the power is never going to surprise you, and probably isn't even going to reach the 23 HR from 2019 again. Despite being a small sample, 2020 saw McNeil's EV, Barrel%, and Hard hit rate drop back to his lowly 2018 numbers from roughly the same amount of PA, with his LA actually much lower. What I am more concerned with however is the lack of running we saw in 2020. The BA is excellent and we'll be okay with modest HR, but we can't be having a goose-egg in the SB column. His sprint speed is slightly above league average, and he has just 12 SB across those 1000 PA, but what's worth noting is 19 of his 21 SB attempts came from the 1-3 spots in the batting order.
He spent roughly a third of 2020 hitting seventh. From the 1-3 spots, he's averaging an SB attempt in every ~44 PA. From the 4-9 spots he is averaging just one SB attempt per ~99 PA. The good news for 2021's forecast is that currently RosterResource has McNeil hitting from the two-hole, and based on his splits that shouldn't change versus LHP. So based on his career 57% conversion rate and attempt per PA rate from the top third of the lineup, we should expect roughly eight SB.
Jose Altuve is such a difficult case. Let's review the strange trends we have seen. Last year it was "The Astros hitters are a product of cheating, fade them in your drafts because we don't know how they will hit when they don't know what pitch is coming." Then Jose Altuve goes out and completely falls on his face and hits .219. Now that the ADP has adjusted accordingly, the same voices in the industry are now saying "Altuve is a career .311 hitter, don't fade just because of one bad season." Well, which one is it people? Was he a product of cheating or did he just coincidentally experience a very poor small sample in 2020? I will admit I am not 100% confident either one is correct, and that uncertainty typically forces a wait-and-see approach. For the believers, look at how he finished the season in the playoffs last year (.375 BA, 5 HR). For the doubters, look at the consistent decrease in xBA since 2016. One thing we can all agree on is the SB are a thing of the past despite a still very impressive sprint speed. He is only 8-16 on the base paths over his last 758 PA. Realistically even what the optimistic are hoping for out of Altuve is what McNeil is capable of getting you, but one of them is much safer and has added position-eligibility.
Since we have only discussed middling SB opportunities in this tier, it's only fair to shift to Dylan Moore, who now owns 23 SB across 441 MLB PA after a breakout 2020. He hit eight HR and stole 12 bases in just 159 PA last year, while raising his BA almost 50 points despite just a 24 point BABIP increase. Considering his speed and EV/Hard Hit% that both ranked in the top 23% of the league we should expect the BA to reside closer to the .255 mark than the .209 he hit in 2019. ATC projects 18 HR, 22 SB, and a .237 BA, which combined with OF eligibility makes for a perfectly fine speed boost at his 111 overall NFBC ADP... if BA hedges are in place of course.
Tier Four
Jake Cronenworth enjoyed one hell of a first taste of the big leagues in 2020. The 27-year-old rookie only hit four HR and stole three bases, but he hit .285 and the underlying numbers look fantastic. He will absolutely hit for a higher average than whatever projection system you prefer is showing right now. He possesses a healthy line drive profile with a hit-direction spread similar to Trevor Story and Paul Goldschmidt. I am not worried about where he hits in the lineup because the Padres are loaded and hitting behind Tommy Pham and Wil Myers is still plenty of RBI possibilities. I am however slightly worried about playing time considering the Padres now have Ha-Seong Kim along with Jurickson Profar on the roster. The total PA for 2021 most likely start with a 4 instead of a 5 or 6 which is why Cronenworth's February ADP is now at 182. In daily roster move leagues I'd be happy plugging him into one of his three eligible positions when starting, but trying to guess how many games he will play each week will be a mental strain.
Tommy Edman had a pretty disappointing season after he burst on the scene with 11 homers, 15 steals, and a .304 BA as a rookie in 2019. It seemed he regressed in every facet, but especially in the speed and average departments. His sprint speed didn’t change by much, but he went from going 15-of-16 on steal attempts to 2-of-6 in 2020. He is still only 25 years old, and he should be locked into a spot at the top of the Cardinals lineup with Paul DeJong, Goldy, and Nolan Arenado following. We'll take a shot on a rebound season from Edman in a great spot, although his current ADP of 125 grants ZERO discount for his 2020 woes.
I was severely burned by Jonathan Villar in 2020 after he went 24/40 for the Orioles in 2019. Between Miami and Toronto (what a geographic transition that must have been) he only hit two HR with a .232 BA, but did still swipe 16 bases. Now he has signed with the Mets and looks to be serving in a utilityman role. The ADP has yet to adjust for the news as many were hoping he'd land a starting gig somewhere, but Villar can still be valuable in daily roster move leagues as it won't take too many PA for him to rack up 20 SB. In weekly leagues he will likely be chilling on your bench unless an injury occurs in the Mets infield.
Tier Five
We are now easily into middle infield slot territory, and most managers are either looking for a boost in the category they have neglected thus far or taking a lotto-ticket flier. Nick Madrigal and Gavin Lux quickly come to mind at the position. Both are blessed with elite offensive teams and are the oft-forgotten pieces on draft day. Madrigal hit .340 in a little over 100 PA in 2020, and stole 35 bases across three minor league levels in 2019. The power is non-existent but .300 with 20 SB is exactly the kind of boost you are looking for at this point in drafts. Lux has a much higher ceiling but hasn't had any success in his two small MLB cups of coffee. Unlike Madrigal he will have to earn his PA, but owners who take a chance might be rewarded with a true difference-maker.
If you are like me and like filling MI and CI with the safest and closest to all-around production you can find, Jean Segura is a perennial option. It feels like he has been in the league forever, but Segura is still "just" 30 years old. In his first season with the Phillies in 2019, he hit 12 HR, stole 10 bases, and hit .280. In 2020 he appeared to sell out for a little extra pop and hit seven bombs, stole two bases and hit .266 in 54 games. Despite the decreasing SB totals over the years, his sprint speed is still top 15% in the league and he did draw walks at a career-high rate last year. Hitting near the bottom of the lineup he won't win you any categories, but you know double digit HR and SB are coming with a healthy BA.
Eduardo Escobar is another "comfort" pick for MI or CI. It's safe to assume the 35 HR breakout in 2019 won't be replicated but ever since being traded to the Diamondbacks he has been a very solid source for R+RBI. Don't fret too much about the .212 BA last season, because the BABIP was a career-low and the .263 xBA was right on par with what we got in 2019. If you are squared away with speed and just want to add some nice run production stat-cushion, the switch-hitting Escobar should be set once again to receive as many PA as he can handle in the middle of the lineup.
Tier Six
The sixth tier begins in the friendly confines of Coors Field with Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson, who both should feel a bit safer with the departure of Nolan Arenado. If C.J. Cron sticks at first base, McMahon and Hampson should see plenty of time at third and second with Brendan Rodgers also (hopefully) getting reps. The two teammates are an interesting duo with McMahon sporting the two consecutive seasons with a .200 ISO and Hampson with the speed to steal 20 bases. Both make for decent depth options in fantasy, picking which one depends on whether you prefer McMahon's CI eligibility or Hampson's OF flexibility and more obviously modest power versus speed. I will say Ryan McMahon is a safer choice in terms of PA if going into your starting lineup in the MI/CI positions due to Hampson and Rodgers neither ever having played third base, and holding the potential platoon advantage over Josh Fuentes.
Everyone usually has at least one player drafted for speed, and speed alone. Jon Berti can be that guy. He has stolen 27 bases across his 451 MLB PA and his sprint speed ranked right behind Adalberto Mondesi in 2020. How long he can remain in the lineup and hold off young studs like Jazz Chisolm and Isan Diaz is a valid question, but even if not starting he can give you Jonathan Villar utilityman-type PA and SB. He did himself a huge favor in 2020 with his 15.4 BB%, as managers don't typically want to leave someone on the bench that can play several positions, get on base, and has elite speed.
Kolten Wong will certainly be higher on this list once the next update comes through, now that he is the starting second baseman for the Brewers and should be hitting at the top of the order. 2019 was a great season for Wong as he hit .285 and 11 HR with 24 SB but that failed to carry over into the COVID chaos of 2020. He profiles as a good leadoff hitter, and should score plenty of runs with modest HR and SB. I think ATC has him pegged accurately with 10 HR, 14 SB, and a .260/.341/.383 slash. With decent on-base ability and hitting in front of Christian Yelich, you can 100% do much worse for your MI spot around Wong's February ADP of 269.
Tiers Seven & Eight
Starlin Castro was a huge target for me in 2020 and was a piece in my Bold Predictions article after hitting .302 with 16 bombs in his last 300 PA of the 2019 season. Unluckily for me and the fellow believers, a fractured wrist ended the 2020 campaign after just 16 games. For the very little amount that it's worth, through those first 16 games his ISO and flyball percentage were at career-high marks. Luckily for me and the fellow believers, however, the second half of 2019 has been forgotten by our league-mates as Castro's ADP currently sits at 320 on NFBC. Reports state he is fully healthy and was even capable of playing winter ball, but ultimately was advised against by the team. The Nats 1-4 has a new look for 2021 after adding Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber this off-season, which makes the RBI outlook for Castro hitting fifth even juicier. I expect some rust at the beginning, but once Castro hits his stride he will prove to be an absolute steal at his ADP. I'm back on the train.
If you miss out on Wong and want another cheap leadoff hitter, Cesar Hernandez is waiting for you. He got it done in 2020 with a .283 average and 35 runs scored in just 261 PAs, but that's about all he did after hitting only three homers and zero steals attempted. He only attempted 11 base attempts in 2019 with the Phillies so it appears the double-digit SB are gone and despite the third-most doubles in 2020 we know we are lucky if we get double-digit HR from him in 2021. The loss of Francisco Lindor shouldn't affect the run-scoring with the addition of Eddie Rosario, so if you are good with a 10 HR, 5 SB, .280 BA and ~80 R upside, you can grab this middle-infield version of Adam Eaton at the end of your draft.
By looking at his Statcast numbers it can be hard to understand how he does it, but Jonathan Schoop hit at least 21 HR from 2016 to 2019, and was on pace for making it five years in a row with his eight HR in 177 PA last year. He recently re-signed with Detroit on a one-year deal and should slide right back into the top third of the lineup, and once again hit at least 21 HR.
Like Wong, another second baseman who should be climbing the rankings in the next update is Kike Hernandez after he signed a two-year deal with the World Series-favorite Boston Red Sox (I just wanted to type that once this year, please ignore). He should get plenty of playing time between second and the outfield, and as always makes for a great daily roster-move depth piece where you can take advantage of his splits versus southpaws.
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