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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/9/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Julio Rodriguez, Seiya Suzuki and others!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's a solid Saturday slate that we've got in front of us today, and I'm excited to get at these HR props for you. There are quite a few exploitable matchups that I'm looking to capitalize on. One of those was Michael Harris II to go yard against Roki Sasaki, but with the Dodgers announcing that Blake Snell will be making his season debut tonight, that changes everything. So we were forced to pivot.
But let's try to get past that! Today, I'll be backing four hitters, with three of them being in advantageous matchups on the road. Three will be looking to launch the long ball indoors, while one hitter we're targeting will have the wind behind him. That all should make for a solid day of betting homers! Also, make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks and NRFIs!
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/9/2026)
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) vs. Anthony Kay (CHW) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+520, FanDuel)
It wasn't exactly the hottest start to the season for Rodriguez, but it certainly seems like he's started to find his form. Against the Royals and Braves, he got hot, going 7-24 for four of those seven hits going for extra bases. Three of those were homers. It all adds up to a 185 wRC+ with a 52.9% hard hit rate and a 17.6% barrel rate.
Julio Rodríguez hits one WAY out! 🔱 pic.twitter.com/XjWbQawWlq
— MLB (@MLB) May 6, 2026
He gets a matchup against White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay, who has been giving up a lot more hits in his last three starts compared to his first four starts. Four of the six homers he's given up have come over these last three starts, showing a decent amount of long ball potential on Saturday night. With his hard hit rate in the 16th percentile and his barrel rate in the ninth percentile, he makes for a perfect fade candidate.
Kay has been getting mashed by righties this season to the tune of a .456 wOBA. All six of the homers he's given up have come from the right side of the plate, though only one has come at Rate Field. However, he's giving up a ton more fly balls to righties at home than on the road (47.4% FB rate vs 35.4% FB rate). Sure feels like he should have given up a few more homers.
Rodriguez's overall splits are very favorable against lefties, hitting them for a 168 wRC+. Five of his six homers have come against southpaws. On the road, he hasn't looked like the same hitter, but I'm going to chalk that up to a slow start. Now that he's rolling, he should see the tides turn in his favor.
Kay generally attacks righties with a combo of four-seamers, cutters, changeups, and sweepers. Rodriguez has an xwOBA of .335 against all of those besides sweepers and has hit changeups very well this season. I'd expect Kay to focus on changeups and sweepers, but Rodriguez is hot enough that he should be able to at least foul those off and get himself a four-seamer or cutter, the two pitches Kay is most prone to for homers.
The other factor we have here is that winds will be blowing out at Rate Field. I already liked the matchup enough before checking the forecast, but then you're going to throw in that the winds are blowing out? Say less. That should make it that much easier for him to hit a homer in back-to-back games.
Let's get Julio something he can smack in the air and let the wind do the rest.
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) vs. Jack Leiter (TEX) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+520, FanDuel)
Chicago's offense has been absolutely clicking over the last few weeks, and today we're going to target one of their sluggers against a pitcher that has talent but hasn't quite gotten it all down yet. Suzuki has been excelling at keeping the ball off the ground over the last two weeks. It's led to a 139 wRC+ and three homers, and that was before he went yard on Friday night.
Not an overwhelming amount of overall homers there, but I do think that he has a fantastic matchup against Leiter. Suzuki has been hitting very effectively on the road, posting a 154 wRC+ that jumps to a 183 wRC+ when he's facing righties. He's also posting a 56.3% fly-ball rate in this specific scenario. That's a lovely number to target when we're looking for the long ball.
SEIYA 👋
Seiya Suzuki ties the game with a 3-run shot! pic.twitter.com/f7i8helK30
— MLB (@MLB) May 5, 2026
Leiter, meanwhile, has gotten in trouble when the ball's in the air. He's in the 25th percentile for hard hit rate and the ninth percentile for barrel rate. Great numbers to fade for a home run bet. He's also allowing righties to post a 47.4% fly-ball rate at home. Match that with Suzuki's 56.3% rate on the road, and it tells us Suzuki should keep doing what he does.
This battle may come down to specifically who wins when Leiter throws a four-seam fastball. It's his best pitch against righties with a .112 wOBA and a .146 xwOBA, but with a 33-degree launch angle. Suzuki has mashed four-seamers for a .467 wOBA this year, though it's paired with a .334 xwOBA.
However, if it goes to another pitch, then Suzuki has the edge. Sliders, changeups and sinkers will be the trio Leiter likely turns to and Suzuki has a solid xwOBA against each of those. Slider specifically is the pitch he may be able to do some real damage against, as he's got a .447 wOBA (.507 xwOBA) against them and has hit two of his six homers against them.
The styles here mesh together with high velocity and hard hits. If Suzuki gets a barrel on one, then I'm trusting it will go a long way.
Now onto the next road warrior.
