Thursday Night Football DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Chargers vs. Raiders

December 17, 2020

Jorge's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Week 15's Thursday Night Football Chargers vs. Raiders matchup. His daily fantasy football advice and value plays.

Thursday Night Football has arrived and we get treated to an old-fashioned AFC West rivalry as the Los Angeles Chargers take on the Las Vegas Raiders. This is a big-time matchup for the AFC Wild Card picture as the Raiders are one of the teams that are in the hunt for an AFC Wild Card spot and need to win out while the Chargers are looking to play spoiler to their divisional rival. This game features an over/under of 54.5 with the Raiders being favored by 3 points.

In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on December 17th (Week 15). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with myself and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!

DFS Quarterbacks

This should be a back-and-forth matchup that really provides boosts to both quarterbacks. Justin Herbert has really excelled in his rookie season and while he hasn't racked up the wins just yet, his play on the field is showing why the Chargers are excited about his future as their long-term solution at quarterback. In his rookie season, Herbert has thrown for almost 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns while also averaging 23 DK points per game. In 12 total games played, Herbert has scored double-digits in 11 of those games and has had eight multi-touchdown performances so far this season. Herbert had a pretty modest performance against the Raiders in Week 9 as he threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns while scoring 26.4 DK points. The Raiders will be missing key starters on defense which means Herbert should be able to take advantage of mismatches and deliver from a fantasy perspective. The Raiders' defense has been terrible all season long as they have allowed 262.5 passing yards per game, 390.5 total yards per game, and allow opponents to score 28.7 points per game. This is a great matchup for Herbert and we should expect him to generate at least 20+ DK fantasy points.

For the Raiders, they will need Derek Carr to play at a very high level down the stretch if they want to have any chance at making the playoffs. While they are not in the driver's seat anymore for a Wild-Card playoff spot, they do need to win out and hope that some other teams can trip up down the stretch. The Las Vegas offense has played well this season as they are averaging 26.9 points scored per game and this is partly due to the way Carr has orchestrated this offense. Carr has become more comfortable with taking deep shots this season which has led him to throw 24 touchdowns and over 3,300 yards. This has been one of his better statistical seasons in his career and while he might not put up monster numbers as other quarterbacks do, he is more of an efficient passer. In his last four games played, Carr has gone for 20+ DK points and has thrown for eight touchdowns in that span. In his Week 9 battle against the Chargers, Carr only threw for 165 passing yards but was able to connect for two passing touchdowns. The Chargers Defense is pretty stingy against the pass as they only allow opposing teams to throw for 226 yards per game so Carr will have to step up his game in order to produce from a fantasy perspective.

Analysis: Herbert is the better fantasy option for this showdown slate but both quarterbacks can be used in all formats. Herbert has the better matchup and has the better ceiling so he could very well be a choice for your captain spot in both cash games and tournaments.

DFS Running Backs

This game features some of the more exciting running backs in the league and their playing styles are almost polar opposites of each other. Austin Ekeler is one of the premier pass-catching backs out of the backfield and while he still does damage on the ground, he really presents headaches in the passing game. Ever since Ekeler returned from IR, he has seen 34 targets over a three-game span. Over that same three-game span, Ekeler has gotten double-digit rushing attempts in two of those games so the Chargers stay committed to him getting touches regardless of his usage in the passing game. Backing up Ekeler has been Kalen Balage who did well when he took over the rushing duties for the Chargers in Weeks 10 and 11. Ballage has seen seven carries in each of his last two games played and still gets a few targets in the passing game so if needing some salary relief, Ballage could be a risky salary saving punt play. The Raider's defense has really struggled to contain the run as they are allowing 125 rushing yards per game and have allowed the Jets and Colts to each run for over 200+ rushing yards in back-to-back games.

The Raiders have one of the better traditional style running backs in Josh Jacobs. Jacobs is a very physical runner who loves to run in between the tackles and is not afraid to lower the shoulder. While he isn't featured as much in the passing game as Ekeler is, Jacobs does see a few targets per game which raises his fantasy ceiling a tad.  Jacobs has struggled over his last three games and part of this is due to dealing with an unhealthy offensive line and also facing some tough rushing defenses in the Falcons, Jets, and Colts. The Charger's run defense has not been good this season as they are allowing 120 rushing yards per game. In Week 9 against the Chargers, Jacobs only had 14 rushing attempts for 65 yards but he did find the end zone on the ground so hopefully, he can find paydirt again this week. Backing up Jacobs has been Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard. Booker gets a handful of carries per game as he usually gives Jacob a breather every two or three drives while Richard is often used when the Raiders fall behind and need a pass-catching back.

Analysis: Ekeler and Jacobs are top plays on this slate and are viable in all formats. Ekeler carries a higher ceiling due to his involvement in the passing game but both backs carry big upside. Ballage, Booker, and Richard could be added to your player pools if looking to MME this showdown.

DFS Wide Receivers

Both wide receiving corps looked to be pretty banged up and could miss some key pieces come Thursday night. For the Raiders, they will be missing one of their top receiving options in Henry Ruggs III as he was placed on the COVID-19 reserve list. Nelson Agholor has stepped up and been a reliable target for Carr all season long and his target share might see a jump with Ruggs being out. Agholor leads the Raiders receiving group with 64 targets and leads the group with six receiving touchdowns on the year but he also leads the team in drops. With all of that being said, he has developed a good rapport with Carr and should function as the top Raider receiver in this game. Hunter Renfrow is a reliable slot receiver that has gained Carr's trust throughout the season and surprisingly enough, he is second out of all Raiders receivers with 63 targets on the year (one shy of Agholor). With Ruggs being out, Renfrow could see an uptick in snaps which makes him more viable in all formats. Other receivers that could benefit from Rugg's absence are Zay Jones and rookie Bryan Edwards. Jones has been brought in in more running formations (primarily being used as a blocker or as a shallow receiving option) while Edwards has been used more down-field plays.

On the other side of this game sits one of the best possession receivers in Keenan Allen. Allen averages over 11 targets per game and has seen 10+ targets in seven out of his last eight games played. Allen is one of the safest players from a fantasy perspective in this game and would be one of the main guys to consider for your captain spot. In 13 total games this season, Allen has scored double-digit DK points in 11 of those contests and has actually hauled in a receiving touchdown in six of his last seven games played. In Week 9 against the Raiders, Allen hauled in nine catches for 103 yards and a touchdown, and with how beaten up this Raiders defense is, he could easily repeat that stat line. The other wide receiver that is the complement to Keenan Allen is Mike Williams but it seems as if Williams might not be able to play since he is nursing a back injury. Williams is a big-play threat and can be a nightmare matchup for smaller corners. If he is unable to go, Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton should see increased snaps and would be worth considering as salary saving punt options in your tournament lineups.

Analysis: Allen is the main receiver to build around and he could very well be the highest-owned and highest-scoring player on this slate. Agholor and Renfrow are the two most reliable options for the Raiders while Edwards, Jones, Guyton, and Johnson would all be risky tournament options.

DFS Tight Ends

Darren Waller and Hunter Henry are two of the more consistent tight end options throughout the league and should play big parts in this game Thursday night. Darren Waller has a target share that is comparable to a number one receiver as he has 118 targets through 13 games played. He has the second-most targets in the NFL out of all tight ends (118 targets, two behind Travis Kelce) and is tied for second in touchdown receptions by a tight end as well with seven. Waller leads the Raiders with 817 receiving yards and has seen 54 more targets than Nelson Agholor who has been the Raider's top wide receiver on the season. The Raiders are very deep at the tight end position as they also have Jason Witten and Foster Moreau who are both capable of being factors in the passing game. Witten has two receiving touchdowns on the season while Foster Moreau is coming off of a big catch and run for a touchdown against the Colts. Both are value tournament options that carry a major risk if rostering them.

Hunter Henry has been a staple in this Chargers offense for several years. He has seen the second-most targets on the team (86 targets) and has the third-most receiving yards with 548 yards. Henry is seeing close to seven targets per game and carries a 63% catch rate which is is tops for all of their tight end options on the team. Henry has three receiving touchdowns on the season which is tied for third-most on the team and with how the Raiders have struggled yet again covering tight ends, it would not be surprising to see him get several looks in the end zone this Thursday night. Donald Parham is the backup tight end for the Chargers and while he doesn't see many targets, he is a tough matchup for any defense. Parham is a former XFL standout and was even called on in the waning moments for a jump ball game-winner against the Raiders earlier this season. Parham hasn't seen much action recently but he is one to keep an eye on should Henry be ruled out for the game this week.

Analysis: Waller and Henry are both great options on this slate in all formats. Waller carries a much higher ceiling and could be used as a captain spot while Henry offers a solid floor for all formats. Their backups carry risk and shouldn't really be considered other than big-time MME formats.

DFS Defense/Special Teams

In the first matchup between these two teams, the Raiders and Chargers combined for 57 total points as the Raiders found a way to hold onto the lead late in the game. We could see a similar point total as both defenses have been bad, specifically the Raiders. They are allowing 30.1 points per game and with a switch at the defensive coordinator position this week, we should not expect them to all of a sudden be a revamped defense. The Chargers are scoring 22 points per game while the Raiders are averaging 26 points per game and with both teams allowing over 27 points per game, this could lead to a high scoring affair that takes both defenses out of play from a showdown perspective. With the back and forth nature and porous defense, both Carlson and Badgley are in play as they will get plenty of extra point and field goal opportunities.

Analysis: Both defenses should be faded in lineups while both kickers could be rostered in all formats due to more overall opportunities.

Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!

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