Which Rookie Quarterbacks Can Turn Their Franchises Around?

April 26, 2020

Mike Riggall evaluates the top rookie quarterbacks taken from the first two days of the 2020 NFL Draft to determine which ones can become franchise QBs and elite dynasty fantasy football assets.

On April 23, 2020, the Cincinnati Bengals made Joe Burrow the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft and the new franchise quarterback in the Queen City. Burrow has been touted as a slam dunk pick and will surely unseat Andy Dalton as the starter, but through the first two days of the draft, other quarterbacks with some question marks have been drafted.

This piece will highlight some of the top quarterback prospects from the 2020 draft class and discuss their future prospects for their teams and fantasy football. As it stands right now out of this group, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa will most likely have the most immediate fantasy impact, while Justin Herbert and Jordan Love may have to wait their turn while they improve their mechanics.

While each team hopes that their new rookie signal-caller will develop into a franchise QB, which ones have the best chance to actually do so?

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow will be an instant difference-maker for the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton has been a decent quarterback for the Bengals for just shy of a decade, but he’s simply not good enough to take over and win a game by himself. Dalton has thrown 204 career touchdowns, has a 7.1 yards-per-attempt average and owns a career record of 70-61-2 as a starter.

Although Dalton has led the Bengals to the playoffs five times, when he did so, the Bengals had a very good supporting cast around him and remained relatively healthy. When Dalton's weapons and offensive line departed via free agency or were injured and couldn't play, his play fell off a cliff and the Bengals lost more than they won. Simply put, Dalton is an average NFL quarterback.

Enter Joe Burrow. Burrow is very accurate, he’s athletic, and he demonstrated good decision-making abilities. Burrow is also a very smart player, a coach's son, who will be able to pick up the playbook and lead the offense very quickly. The one knock on Burrow is that he doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, and some pundits thought that he underthrew his receivers at LSU at times.

However, if you talk to his college receivers, they will tell you that Burrow intentionally did so at times in order to place the ball in a spot where they could come back and catch it. Burrow will be fantasy relevant almost immediately with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross III and now Tee Higgins at wide receiver.

Bottom Line: Burrow may struggle early as many rookie quarterbacks do, but with the weapons he has around him in Cincinnati, he has the potential to be a QB1 sooner rather than later.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa is very smart with the football in his hands and is extremely accurate. He does have some documented injury concerns but he’s been medically cleared and he should be protected pretty well as the Dolphins used draft capital to improve their offensive line with Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt.

The Dolphins do have Ryan Fitzpatrick returning who is (at least for now) slated to start the season under center, but he's erratic with the football and throws a lot of interceptions. He's tossed 25 interceptions over his last 23 games and holds a career 3.4% INT%.

If Fitzpatrick wins the starting job and starts out the year slow, or loses a game for the Dolphins because he turns the ball over too much, Tagavailoa will see the field sooner rather than later, that is, if he doesn't beat out Fitzpatrick outright during training camp.

You can't coach accuracy, and Tagovailoa has it. Even if the hip gives him trouble (arthritis), that likely won't happen until his 30s, meaning he should have a decade-long career with the Dolphins. He will also have Preston Williams, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki as pass-catchers which is a very good situation for a rookie quarterback.

Bottom Line: While Tagavailoa has injury concerns, he is accurate throwing the football and he should have a decent career before arthritis in his hip actually impacts his play. Tagavailoa will likely be a waiver wire guy in 2020.

Justin Herbert, L.A. Chargers

Tyrod Taylor is currently penciled in to be the starting quarterback for the LA Chargers in 2020. Taylor is 23-21-1 in his career as a starter, and has completed 61.6% of his passes. Taylor has career highs of 3,035 passing yards (2015), 20 touchdowns (2015), 5.3% touchdown-rate (2015), and 8.0 yards-per-attempt (2015). His 2015 season is also the only season he threw for over 7.0 yards-per-attempt.

While Taylor struggles to light the world on fire with his arm, he becomes fantasy relevant with his legs. In three years as a starter for the Bills (2015-2017), Taylor ran for between 427 and 580 yards each year, had between four to six rushing touchdowns each season, but he missed one or two games in each of those seasons. While Taylor can be a viable fantasy quarterback, it's clear that he isn't a "franchise quarterback" capable of putting a team on his back and taking them to the Super Bowl, so even if he plays early, it likely won't be for long.

Justin Herbert looks like a prototypical NFL quarterback and has a cannon for an arm. Although Herbert looks the part, he does have some work to do as he struggles with ball placement at times, has rough footwork and misses some easy throws. Maybe a year sitting behind Tyrod Taylor would do him some good because it would give him some time to clean up his feet.

While Herbert has a lot of potential, he also has some work to do, but the Chargers view him as their guy so he will get his chance soon. When Herbert does get his chance, he will have Hunter Henry, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen as play-makers on the offensive side of the ball, so he will have weapons.

Bottom Line: At this point, Herbert should only be drafted in dynasty leagues.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is a physical freak with a huge arm and can throw on the move. On the negative side, his footwork and accuracy are problematic at times. Sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for a year or two would be an ideal situation because it will give Love time to clean up his mechanics a little bit.

Although Rodgers is still playing at an elite level and should be starting for Green Bay for a few more seasons, he has been dinged up over the last few years, so Love may get his chance sooner rather than later. Love has a lot of potential, but he doesn't exactly have a clear path to the field if Aaron Rodgers continues to play at a high level and stays healthy.

Bottom Line: Love will offer no fantasy value until Aaron Rodgers retires or gets injured. At this point, you should only draft Love in dynasty leagues.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts is an exceptional athlete and has a great arm but he is slow to break down defenses at times. Hurts played in a highly-schemed offense at Oklahoma and if he's called upon in Philadelphia, Doug Pederson will know how to scheme their offense to get the best out of him.

Carson Wentz isn't going anywhere anytime soon, but he plays fearlessly and exposes himself to injury a lot. Hurts will be a quality backup quarterback for the Eagles for years to come but he won't see the field unless Wentz goes down.

Bottom Line: Hurts may offer some fantasy value this season similar to Taysom Hill, but he should remain on waiver wires unless Carson Wentz gets hurt. Wentz owners should target Hurts in dynasty leagues.

Conclusion

As I said earlier, Burrow and Tagovailoa figure to have the biggest impact out of all these quarterbacks in 2020, but here is how I would rank these guys for long-term dynasty purposes:

1. Joe Burrow
2. Tua Tagovailoa
3. Justin Herbert
4.  Jordan Love
5. Jalen Hurts.

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