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Earlier this preseason, I looked deeper into Statcast’s new Outs Above Average (OAA) leaderboard, which identifies the best defensive infielders in the league. I used 2019 OAA to look at how a pitcher's new defense will affect his value in the 2020 season.
The first article evaluated pitchers drafted inside the top 300 picks, so this article will look at players being taken later on. Hopefully this can help to identify some late-round targets in deep mixed leagues or some values for AL-only or NL-only leagues.
Let's take a look at some late-round pitchers who could see a value increase thanks to improved defense behind them!
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- Cut List - Players To Consider Dropping
Alex Wood
(From Cincinnati Reds to Los Angeles Dodgers)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 28.2/38.2/33.6
Alex Wood is currently penciled into the Dodgers' rotation and will get the benefit of last year's 15th-ranked defense. Corey Seager finished 28th, Justin Turner finished 36th, and Max Muncy finished 78th. However, unlike David Price, Wood sees a downgrade on team infield defense as the Reds ranked ninth last year at 14 Outs Above Average. He barely threw for Cincinnati last year, but to the extent that defense was being factored his value this year, the change is not a positive. Yet, the one major positive is that he’ll see a big park boost as Great American Ballpark is great for hitter's power, and Wood will be far likelier to accumulate wins, provided he can remain in the rotation.
Takeaway: Wood only pitched 35.1 innings last year, so defense certainly wasn't a factor; however, he did finish with a 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on a much similar Dodgers team in 2018, so he's not a bad flier late in drafts. However, the main concern with Wood is always going to be the way the Dodgers manipulate their rotation. If you were going to take a chance on him in Los Angeles then their slightly worse defense than his previous team shouldn't stop you.
Homer Bailey
(From Kansas City Royals to Minnesota Twins)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 21.7/44.3/34
Homer Bailey finds himself in a tough spot. The Twins finished 26th as a team in OAA last year. Newly-signed Josh Donaldson is strong at 3B, finishing 18th in OAA, but the rest of the infield is a concern. Miguel Sano, his new first baseman, finished 118th, Luis Arraez finished 128th, and Jorge Polanco finished 138th. That's not good for Bailey, who depends a lot on his defense. He has a career K% under 20% and a GB% just under 45%. He relies on his defense far more than new teammate Kenta Maeda and only seemed to become a useful fantasy starter in the second half of last year as he upped his splitfinger usage. Well, splitfinger-fastballs lead to more groundballs, which might not be such a great idea with this defense behind him.
Takeaway: I wasn't really in on Bailey's bounceback before diving into OAA, so this isn't encouraging me to jump on board.
Wade Miley
(From Houston Astros to Cincinnati Reds)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 20.5/49.7/29.8
This wasn’t s great move for Miley, defensively speaking. We already discussed the infield talent that was behind him in Houston, which was instrumental in the success of a pitcher with a near 50% GB%. Now he moves to a hitter-friendly ballpark and will pitch in front of a defense that, while fine in their own right, was 13 outs worse than the Astros last season. In fact, Miley benefited from the fourth-best OAA of all pitchers in baseball while he was on the mound in 2019, an impressive seven outs above average. He will likely see a boost with the Reds signing Freddy Galvis to play shortstop since Galvis was the 10th-best infielder last year based on OAA and Mike Moustakas, who ranked 79th last year as a third baseman but was four outs better in limited time at second base, where he will play in Cincinnati. If he can show the same growth there over a full season then the Reds will field a solid enough defense, but it's hard to believe he'd benefit from the same level of defense that he had last year.
Takeaway: I had been viewing Miley as a popular late-round sleeper since a few end-of-year starts when he was reportedly tipping pitching late last year torpedoed what was otherwise a phenomenal season with a new cutter. Seeing the elite defensive support he had last year makes me a bit suspicious that his pre-tipping numbers are repeatable, but even if he regresses slightly from his peak performance last year, Cincinnati's strong defense makes him a safe-floor pitcher late in drafts, especially at his ADP. Just don't bank on a repeat of early 2019.
Kyle Gibson
(From Minnesota Twins to Texas Rangers)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 24.8/51.4/23.8
We talked about Minnesota’s potential for a middling defense above, but the 28th ranking was especially harmful to Gibson last year as Minnesota started Sano at 3B and C.J. Cron (ranked 74th) at 1B, which likely contributed to Gibson pitching to a career-high .330 BABIP and ranking as the 192nd pitcher in terms of OAA while he was on the mound. While a move to Texas seems like an improvement, since they finished much better as an infield defense, ranking 13th overall by OAA, it’s important to remember that they played more than half the season with Asdrubal Cabrera giving them strong defense at 3B. Cabrera was the 20th-ranked infielder in all of baseball last year by OAA, while his likely replacements, Todd Frazier (90th) or Danny Santana (117th) are likely to be a significant downgrade. To pile on, presumed starting first baseman Ronald Guzman only played in 81 games last year but also graded out as a below-average fielder by OAA, so a full season of him at first base will not benefit Gibson either.
Takeaway: Gibson is a groundball pitcher, with GB% totals around 50% in each of the last three seasons, so pitching with a shaky defense behind him will not be beneficial. However, he's had a bad defense behind him in years past as well and managed to salvage some fantasy value. I wouldn't bank on a return to the .285 BABIP and 3.62 ERA of 2018, but an ERA around 4.50 with a 20-plus K% is possible, which will keep him on the streaming radar.
Jordan Lyles
(From Milwaukee Brewers to Texas Rangers)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 18.5/40.3/41.3
Jordan Lyles is a more interesting case of the new Rangers pitchers. The first half of his season last year, in Pittsburgh, was not pretty. He had a 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 82.1 innings. His xFIP was markedly better at 4.39 and he had a near-identical BB% (9.1) and better K% (24.9) than he would post in Milwaukee to finish out the season (23.5). Unfortunately, OAA can't yet be sorted by splits, so we can't find out how much better his OAA was while pitching for Milwaukee as opposed to Pittsburgh, but the Brewers finished as the 19th-best defense by OAA while Pittsburgh came in at 27, so we can assume there was a slight improvement in play behind him.
The big difference appears to be an unsustainable .225 BABIP in Milwaukee and throwing to Yasmani Grandal, who Lyles has said helped make him a better pitcher. Part of that help was cutting back on the usage of his fastball and throwing the curve more. As a result, Lyles raised his FB% and cut his GB% and LD%, which would mean he’d be less affected by Texas’ mediocre infield defense and more helped by the move from Miller Park to the new domed stadium in Texas. Of course, the key determining factor will be that Grandal did not move with him.
Takeaway: It’s clear that the elite defensive veteran catcher helped Lyles unlock a new level, so Lyles will need to carry that over into his rapport with Robinson Chirinos, who is a decidedly worse defensive catcher. I’d expect Lyles to have a season somewhere in between his Pittsburgh half and his Milwaukee half, which a high 4s ERA but solid K% and a good shot at double-digit wins.
Martin Perez
(From Minnesota Twins to Boston Red Sox)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 22.8/48/29.3
Perez is another pitcher moving on from Minnesota; however, he was less impacted by the poor defense as he finished 2019 with the 108th OAA while he was on the mound, good for one out above average. At times last year, Perez seemed like he was going to break out thanks to his newfound velocity, only he couldn’t quite sustain any success. Some of that may have had to do with the aforementioned defense, especially as a pitcher with a GB% near 50% in every major league season, but Perez's .316 BABIP was pretty much in line with his career numbers, and we already covered that he received average defense behind him. Regardless, his move to Boston will undoubtedly provide him with a better infield defense and a spot in the rotation thanks to the David Price trade and Chris Sale battling an illness.
Takeaway: Perez's struggles last year had more to do with his command, as evidenced by his 1.52 WHIP and 9.2% K-BB%. The better defense behind him isn't a bad thing, but it's not going to automatically make him a reliable fantasy starter. He's going to need to stop giving up so many free passes. However, the 4.66 FIP from last year suggests that Perez could become relevant in 12 to 15-team leagues if Boston has unlocked an uptick in his K% or the ability to throw to Christian Vazquez, Baseball Prospectus' fifth-ranked framer, leads to an improvement in his overall command. If you see growth in either of those areas early on, it would be wise to add Perez and see if it sticks since he has a good chance at wins and solid innings in his new home.
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