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Eric Samulski evaluates the new Statcast metric OAA (Outs Above Average) in relation to starting pitchers who switched teams in 2020. How is their fantasy baseball value potentially affected by a new defense backing them up?
Last week, I looked at Statcast’s new Outs Above Average (OAA) leaderboard, which they’ve used to identify the best defensive infielders in the league. My initial exploration of the metric was designed to identify pitchers who might have been lucky or unlucky last year as a way of mining for bounceback value or avoiding potential busts. However, other Rotoballer writers and I have been discussing further potential value in the OAA metric as we prepare for 2020 drafts.
Today, we’re going to use 2019 OAA to look at which pitchers on new teams may see added value due to the new defense behind them or perhaps be headed for a season of frustrating fantasy owners because a bad defense inflates their ratios. We'll be discussing both the OAA of the specific infielders, meaning the number of outs each individual recorded above what an average fielder would have been able to do, and the OAA while a pitcher was on the mound, meaning the number of outs above average that the defense as an entire unit record while the pitcher was on the mound.
For the purpose of this article, we’re only going to look at pitchers changing teams in 2020 who have an ADP inside the top-300 from February 1 to the present date in Online Championships.
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Gerrit Cole (From Houston to New York)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 20.4/40.3/39.4
Gerrit Cole is either the top fantasy starter on the market or a close second depending on who you talk to. Nothing in this blurb will change that. Cole is moving from one of the best hitter's parks to another park that favors hitters but perhaps not so drastically. However, he is moving from the third-ranked defense by OAA to the 28-ranked one. That’s no minor change. Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and Yuli Gurriel all ranked within the top 60 infielders based on OAA, while Jose Altuve came in at 93rd. Now with the Yankees, Cole will have only one top-70 defender: DJ LeMahieu, who ranked 23rd. Gio Urshela finished as the 75th best infielder, Gleyber Torres came in at 129th, and Luke Voit didn't even make the top 140, finishing as the 38th best first baseman out of only 40 qualifiers.
Takeaway: Cole is obviously a high strikeout pitcher, so he doesn't rely on his defense as much as most; however, he will undoubtedly be pitching in front of a worse infield this year. If you were on the fence between taking him or Jacob deGrom, this may be enough to push Cole to #2 but that's about all you can change just on this metric and even that is splitting hairs since DeGrom pitches in front of OAA's 24th-ranked defense.
David Price (From Boston to Los Angeles)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 23.5/41/35.5
Price's move from Boston to Los Angeles seems to be a relatively neutral one for his value based on OAA. The Red Sox and Dodgers were literally separated by one place in the Statcast leaderboard last year. Boston boasted a solid defense, led by Rafael Devers (19th) and a collection of utility players who all provided defensive value: Brock Holt (32nd) and Michael Chavis (43rd) to name a few. Xander Bogaerts scored poorly in OAA, at 105th, but ranked 60th in 2018, which suggests he's better than his 2019 metrics.
However, the Dodgers also have a solid overall unit, as Corey Seagar finished 28th, Justin Turner finished 36th, and Max Muncy finished 78th. Plus, Dodger Stadium has proven to be more pitcher-friendly than Fenway in the past, which can't hurt. Perhaps what stands out the most is that the defense for Price specifically last year wasn't great since he finished as the 170th-ranked pitcher based on OAA while he was on the mound. That means the normally solid Red Sox defense played below-average defense for Price and would have likely indicated some positive regression even if he had stayed in Boston.
Takeaway: The OAA metrics and park factors appear to offer Price a slight bump, but his value was always going to improve a bit from last year and hinge more on health than anything else. However, his new park, paired with a strong defense and facing the pitcher instead of a DH, means that Price's value improves a bit, and he seems like a solid bet to finish as a top-40 pitcher, provided he remains healthy.
Kenta Maeda (From Los Angeles to Minnesota)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 21.1/40.6/38.3
Many people have been buying heavily into Kenta Maeda since his move to Minnesota because he'll likely no longer be subject to the Dodgers' aforementioned manipulation of his role and innings total. However, there is some concern about the defense he is moving to. Last season, Maeda benefited from the Dodgers defense enough to finish as the 75th-ranked pitcher based on OAA while he was on the mound, at two outs above average. He likely won't be helped like that in Minnesota, as the Twins finished 26th as a team in OAA last year. Newly-signed Josh Donaldson is strong at 3B, finishing 18th in OAA, but the rest of the infield is a concern. Miguel Sano, his new first baseman, finished 118th, Luis Arraez finished 128th, and Jorge Polanco finished 138th. That's mildly problematic for a pitcher who has a career GB% over 40. On the flip side, he does get to pitch with a much better outfield behind him as Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, when healthy, both finished in the top-15 in OAA.
Takeaway: This may be the first actionable intel we have here. Pitching with a substantially worse infield defense is an issue for Maeda, considering the support he received last year and how few Twins pitchers even came close to an above-average score in the OAA metric. Moving to the AL might also be a slight hit to his value since he'll have to face the DH, but he will also have better outfield defense and more secure innings, so I wouldn't change my valuation of Maeda too much from where I had him when he was a member of the Dodgers. I just wouldn't rocket him up my rankings based on his new home, even if we still aren't 100% of how sticky or accurate OAA is as a metric.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (From Los Angeles to Toronto)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 24.2/50.4/25.4
On the surface, Ryu appears to be another pitcher leaving the Dodgers for a much worse situation. The Rodgers Centre is a strong hitters park, and the turf makes the infield play much faster than other stadiums. That's not great for a pitcher who has a GB% over 50%. However, the Blue Jays finished the season as the 12th-ranked infield based on OAA; two spots ahead of the Dodgers. Their defense should also be better this year as Cavan Biggio finished 21st in OAA during his limited innings and new first baseman Travis Shaw was 70th. Bo Bichette came in at 115th and Vladimir Guerrero Jr finished 139th, so they may still provide underwhelming defense, but Ryu also finished last season as the 168th-ranked pitcher in OAA while he was on the mound, so it's not as if the Dodgers defense helped him much while he was pitching.
Takeaway: With this information, it seems clear that defense shouldn't be the reason for moving Ryu down in your rankings. However, he will be pitching in a worse home park, against a more competitive offensive division, and will now be facing a DH. His numbers last year were not built on fluky batted-ball metrics or other-worldly defensive factors, so it's possible that the hate on Ryu has gone too far. Sure, he's not likely to repeat at 2.32 ERA in the AL East, but that's baked into his ever-declining ADP. I don't love the new park and league surroundings, but if he continues to fall in drafts I'll take a chance on a pitcher whose new team situation may be being overblown.
Zack Wheeler (From New York NL to Philadelphia)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 21.4/43.2/35.3
Unlike the confusion of Ryu's situation, Wheeler's move was a clear net positive. Even though he is moving to a more hitter-friendly park, he gets to throw to a far superior defensive catcher in J.T. Realmuto and will pitch in front of a vastly-superior defense. The Mets infield defense was one of the worst in baseball last year by almost any metric. According to OAA specifically, Robinson Cano was their best fielder at 91st overall. Amed Rosario finished 123rd, Pete Alonso finished 132nd, and Jeff McNeill didn't see enough innings to qualify.
Now, he'll pitch in front of a Phillies defense that was five outs above average better than the Mets last year and features Rhys Hoskins (40th), Scott Kingery (72nd), and Jean Segura, who would have ranked inside the top-80 if OAA only considered his innings at 2B, where he'll play in Philadelphia. Didi Gregorious appears to be the weak link on that defense but still finished ahead of Rosario and Alonso. All good news for a pitcher with a GB% over 43%.
Takeaway: Wheeler has been a popular breakout candidate for much of the offseason and OAA only seems to be another metric that supports this. I'm all for Wheeler as a top-25 option based on his current situation and the dynamic upside of his repertoire.
Madison Bumgarner (From San Francisco to Arizona)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 22.6/35.8/41.6
Bumgarner's move to Arizona seems like a relatively negative move on the surface. Yes, Oracle Park is proving to be good for right-handed pull hitters, but it's still a strong pitcher's park overall, while Chase Field plays a little more favorably for hitters. Yet, Bumgarner will be pitching in front of last year's fifth-ranked defense based on OAA, as opposed to the Giants, who ranked 18th, a full 20 outs worse than Arizona. The Giants were anchored by Evan Longoria at 47th overall and Brandon Belt at 52nd, while Brandon Crawford (114th) brought the overall performance down a little. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Nick Ahmed is the fourth-best defender in the league, according to OAA, and Christian Walker finished 15th in his first year in the league; however, Ketel Marte (87th) and Eduardo Escobar (112th) are below-average defensive regulars and now Marte will see a full season at 2B.
Since Bumgarner is more of a flyball pitcher, he was helped last year by three regular outfielders who finished in the top 50 in the league based on OAA (Steven Duggar, Mike Yastrzemski, and Kevin Pillar) and received above-average defense while he was on the mound last year. In Arizona, he’ll have an outfield of Starling Marte (51st), David Peralta (63rd) and Kole Calhoun (79th), which is a minor downgrade. If that wasn't enough of a complicated back and forth, Bumgarner's Home/Road splits last year were particularly concerning now that he's outside of Oracle Park.
Takeaway: As a heavy fly-ball pitcher moving to more of a hitter's park with a worse defensive outfield, I expect a slight downgrade for Bumgarner from a defensive standpoint. His career home/road splits are also concerning, but I wouldn't change his ranking drastically, still keeping him somewhere near the top-30 starting pitchers. However, with all of the confusing back and forth metrics listed above, I have a bad feeling about Bumgarner this year. I’d rather reach for the tier of arms before him or wait a few rounds for the younger upside arms going after him.
Dallas Keuchel (From Atlanta to Chicago AL)
LD%/GB%/FB%: 20.1/60.1/19.6
With a GB% over 60%, Keuchel is a pitcher who heavily relies on the defense behind him. That's not exactly a positive for him coming into 2020. Last year, the left-hander pitched 112 innings with Atlanta's 10th ranked defense behind him, which allowed him to have a defensive OAA of two outs above average while he was on the mound. Dansby Swanson and Freddie Freeman were both top-62 defensive players, and we already discussed the elite metrics of Josh Donaldson which helped balance the 100th ranking of Ozzie Albies.
This year, Keuchel will be pitching in front of an inferior defense that ranked 17th last year, but a full 13 outs worse than Atlanta. Yoan Moncada was a strong defender, finishing 31st, but Tim Anderson finished 92nd, Jose Abreu ranked 106th, and Leury Garcia didn't see enough innings to qualify for OAA. Keuchel only has an 8.7 SwStr%, which means he allows batters to make a lot of contact. A weaker defense behind him could be a real problem.
Takeaway: Keuchel was never an option I was gravitating towards, but I can't see him duplicating his sub .300 BABIP with the new defense behind him. Without the strikeouts to bump up any fantasy value, I'd be wary of taking Keuchel as I can't see any category that I can bank on consistent solid production.
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