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Frank's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 8 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's now time for the eighth edition of our Unlikely Aces series in 2026. This is where we take a look at surprising pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far. We're going to determine whether or not they're worth holding or if you should try to sell high. We'll also recommend buying high if the profile looks good.
With how barren the pitching landscape has been since it's riddled with injuries, these unlikely aces have been huge for our fantasy baseball teams. Getting a boost in ratios while missing aces like Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet has been massive. But can these pitchers keep it up? Or are you better off jettisoning them to the wire unless they have a nice matchup?
Keep reading to find out more about Eduardo Rodriguez, Max Meyer, and J.T. Ginn. Each of these pitchers has a sub-3.00 ERA. We'll dive into their profile to see what's going on under the hood. Find out why Rodriguez is ripe for regression, Ginn looks like a decent streamer, and Meyer may be a potential breakout. Note: Roster percentages are from Yahoo! leagues.
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Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
45% Rostered
Eduardo Rodriguez is a veteran lefty putting up strong ratios so far. In 53.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.53 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The problem is that the strikeouts have been virtually nonexistent, including a 17.5% K%. Rodriguez has been getting it done by inducing a lot of soft contact, as highlighted by a 67% hard-hit rate.
If we look at his pitch mix, we see five pitches, mostly the four-seamer and changeup, mixed in with a changeup, cutter, and sinker.
The four-seamer has been effective, inducing a .298 wOBA. The changeup has been his best pitch, including a .235 wOBA. However, not a single one of these pitches has resulted in a 30+% whiff rate, with the four-seamer (25.0%) leading the way.
When we look at Rodriguez's pitch mix, we see that he's leaning on his changeup more. He's bumped up its usage from 20.5% to 29.3%. That's been a major driver of his results, as hitters have struggled to make hard contact against this pitch (.297 xwOBA).
It's also worth noting that Rodriguez has decreased his four-seamer usage from 46.6% to 37.5%. By reducing that usage, it's made the four-seamer more effective than last year, as it's improved from a .366 wOBA to .298 wOBA.
We've seen Rodriguez put up strong ratios in the past, including a 3.30 ERA in 152.2 innings back in 2023. But that was a season where he still had a 23.0% strikeout rate. His current rate of 17.5% simply isn't going to cut it.
Rodriguez is ripe for regression, as his 4.73 SIERA is much higher than his 2.53 ERA. We can't expect the .259 BABIP (career-low) and 83.1 LOB% (career-high) to last. This unlikely ace isn't worth getting excited about. With that said, he's still a crafty veteran who can provide value in the right spot. Up next for Rodriguez is a home start vs. the Rockies, so you can fire him up with confidence there.
Verdict: You can fire up Rodriguez as a matchup-based streamer, but there's nothing more than that here. Pick him up when the matchup is right, but drop him otherwise.
Max Meyer, SP, Miami Marlins
64% Rostered
Max Meyer was once considered a top prospect. He's shown flashes in the past, but so far this year, he's been quite effective, putting up a 2.85 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate in 53.2 innings. You have to like the 14.3% swinging-strike rate, which suggests that the strikeout rate is sustainable.
What I love about Meyer's arsenal is that he has three pitches with a 35+% whiff rate, including his slider (44.5%), sweeper (38.2%), and changeup (37.7%). His pitch mix also includes a four-seamer and a sinker.
What we've seen this year is that Meyer has trimmed his slider usage from 35.3% to 28.5%. He's used his sweeper a lot more often, going from 11.5% to 24.6%. That's intriguing because the sweeper has a .252 wOBA, so hitters are having a tough time against this pitch.
We should also note that Meyer's four-seamer has been much more effective, going from a .433 wOBA to a .310 wOBA. This is supported by the expected stats, as he's gone from a .457 xwOBA to a .349 xwOBA.
What I like about Meyer is that he's racking up strikeouts, and we see a clear change in pitch mix, with the significant uptick in sweeper usage. By throwing that pitch more often, it's made the rest of Meyer's arsenal more effective.
The underlying metrics look good for Meyer as well, as highlighted by a 3.53 SIERA and an 18.2% K-BB%. The Marlins right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of 10 starts this season.
We just need Meyer to get his control in check, as he sometimes loses command, which shortens his outings and gets him into trouble. Pitching for the rebuilding Marlins doesn't help, but at least he's in a pitcher's park.
Verdict: We could be looking at the much-anticipated breakout from Meyer here. He's easily the most intriguing pitcher on this list. It might be a good idea to try to buy high on him from an unsuspecting league mate who isn't fully aware of the potential breakout here.
J.T. Ginn, SP, Athletics
38% Rostered
J.T. Ginn is putting up a 2.98 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with a 21.7% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate in 51.1 innings. The 27-year-old righty is coming off a dominant outing against the Angels, where he carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning, allowing two runs on two hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts. In Ginn's last two starts, he's combined for 14 innings and two earned runs.
When we look at Ginn's arsenal, we see a five-pitch mix, with the sinker as the main pitch, followed by the cutter, slider, changeup, and four-seamer. Ginn has been able to induce a lot of soft contact (33.6% hard-hit rate) thanks to two pitches at sub-.300 wOBA allowed: the cutter (.279) and changeup (.234).
When we see his pitch mix, we notice that he's decreased the usage of his sinker (51.5% to 36.7%) and slider (25.8% to 17.1%) while bumping up his changeup (9.4% to 15.7%) and introducing a four-seamer (12.7%), which wasn't used last season.
What I like about these changes is that now Ginn is a more well-rounded pitcher rather than one who relies on a sinker to induce groundballs. Despite that, his strikeout rate has fallen from 25.3% to 21.7%. This makes me think that's unsustainable. The strikeouts are coming with fewer sinkers, as we saw last start with 10 against the Angels.
Ginn has a respectable 3.92 SIERA, so there's a chance that he could stick on your fantasy baseball rosters. You just have to be careful when to deploy him since Sutter Health Park is an absolute bandbox.
There's a good chance that Ginn will be available on your waiver wire when the A's have a tough matchup. If he gets dropped, you can pick him up for the right spots. For example, I'd bet that several fantasy players will drop Ginn after this two-start week he's currently on. If that happens, you can pounce.
Verdict: Ginn is the second-best pitcher in this article. I wouldn't try to trade for him as I would with Meyer, but he's worth firing up in the right matchup. Just temper expectations whenever the A's are at home, especially during the summer months.
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