RADIO
Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/21/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Brandon Lowe, Nick Kurtz, and others!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a weak Thursday slate, and the weather isn't looking particularly great either. This is going to be a slate where we have to dig deep and find some sneaky spots for people to go yard today. Zach absolutely crushed it yesterday, hitting dingers on Juan Soto and Ketel Marte. Hopefully, I can follow it up with a solid day of dingers as well!
In this article, I'll focus on three home run spots, as well as a longshot spot I like. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks!
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, May 21, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/21/2026)
Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500, Fanatics)
We are starting this one off with Brandon Lowe, who is taking on good ole Dustin May at Busch Stadium. Lowe has been a dynamite pickup for this Pirates team, who are a game over .500 at the 50-game mark coming into today. Lowe leads the team in home runs so far this year with 12 of them, nine of which have come against RHP.
With those nine home runs, he is also sporting an impressive .624 SLG, .342 ISO, an 18.5% Barrel%, and a 49% HardHit%. All of which leads the team, except for HardHit%, which is where Oneil Cruz takes the top spot. Cruz is also someone who could be live for a home run against May.
Brandon Lowe leads off the 5th with a double, his 11th of the year
110.6 MPH exit velocity, .790 xBA pic.twitter.com/fkn7a5drk9
— Platinum Key (@PlatinumKey13) May 21, 2026
Dustin May has struggled primarily against lefties this season; he has given up 37 total hits, 10 of which were for extra bases. He also is allowing a .486 SLG, .153 ISO, 9.4% Barrel%, and a 51% HardHit%. He hasn't gotten into much trouble at home this season, but the underlying stats are showing he is due for a blowup at any point. The Pirates have some hard-hitting lefties on the team, and this could end in disaster for him.
Over the last five games against righties, Lowe has the third-highest average exit velocity at 98.5 mph. He has five batted balls of over 100 mph, two of which went for home runs. He is hitting the ball extremely hard right now, and it's only a matter of time before Lowe goes yard again.
Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+429, DraftKings)
This game probably has the best home run weather of any game on the slate. It is one of the few with wind blowing out rather than in, and we have some nice temps projected in Anaheim. This Athletics team is leading the poor AL West, who would have thought. They have a solid group of guys right now, and if they can figure out the pitching a bit, they could be a dangerous team. That being said, I'm riding with Nick Kurtz here against Jose Soriano.
Soriano had a phenomenal start to the season this year. He has still been pitching pretty well, but has started to fade in recent starts, giving up 15 earned runs between his last four games, including four home runs. Soriano has seen his numbers jump across the board in May compared to his April numbers. It is concerning to see, but I think that makes for a great spot for Kurtz and this Athletics team.
Nick Kurtz has been a beast in the power department; all of his stats are off the chart, with a SLG of .569, ISO of .275, an absurd Barrel% of 25%, and a 65.3% HardHit%. He has eight total home runs, and seven of them have come against RHP. He will likely be in one of those first few spots in the lineup, which should allow him to get three ABs against Soriano before turning it over to the second-worst bullpen in the league by ERA.
With the wind blowing out and a pitcher who is clearly regressing, this makes for a perfect spot that Kurtz should be able to take advantage of.
