RADIO
Mike's Week 6 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, October 6 through Friday, October 9, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 5 gave us more Big Ten referee incompetence, but at least it wasn't at a critical juncture in the game. Missouri silenced the doubters. We saw a defensive coordinator fired in the middle of a game. The 2026 college football season hasn't disappointed us yet. We're still seeing all kinds of things that we aren't used to seeing. That's why this is still the greatest sport on earth, no matter how much Fox and ESPN try to kill it.
Weekday Conference USA begins in earnest this week with games on Tuesday and Wednesday. We have one of the best Thursday slates in a while, and another loaded Friday night with some big-time matchups. There are no more FBS vs. FCS games this week. All 58 games are FBS vs. FBS, and nearly all of them are conference games. 12 of the games happen before Saturday. We'll pick all of those against the spread before we revisit Week 5.
If you have questions about any of these games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
Featured Promo: Get any College Football Premium Pass for 50% off and win more using code CHAMP. Exclusive access to our industry-leading DFS Lineup Optimizer, DFS Cheat Sheets and Premium Discord Chat rooms. Go Premium, Win More!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 6
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
I finished at .500 with picks, but still lost some points thanks to overconfident bets on some teams. I know that happened at least twice this week, so I don't have high hopes of getting out of the hole I'm in this week.
Let's tackle the 12 picks before the Saturday games before we check out the results of Week 5.
Southern Mississippi at Troy (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line keeps bouncing around the 10-point mark, so you can easily find -9.5 or -10.5 if you shop around. The juice on 9.5 is rough, and it's starting to seep through to the 10.5 line.
It turns out that Troy's horrible showing in Columbia was a direct result of an underrated Missouri defense. Even at 10.5, I'm buying.
Pick: Troy -10.5
Jacksonville State (-2.5) at Kennesaw State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is starting to creep above three, as it should. Catch it now if you want the Jacksonville State side.
Pick: Jacksonville State -2.5
New Mexico State at Florida International (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, this seems high. FIU has only scored more than 20 points in a game once, and it wasn't against Long Island.
Pick: New Mexico State +6.5
Sam Houston at Liberty (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like how Sam Houston is playing, but that Liberty defense is cruising and Deshawn Purdie isn't making mistakes. I feel like Liberty pulls away in the second half.
Pick: Liberty -13.5
Missouri State at Western Kentucky (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is laughable. Missouri State pushed SMU in Dallas. The Tops got blown out by New Mexico State with a backup quarterback.
Pick: Missouri State +2.5
South Florida at UTSA (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Surprisingly, both teams have had trouble moving the ball. The USF defense is light years ahead of the offense, but UTSA doesn't lose conference games in the Alamodome unless it's to Army.
Pick: UTSA -6.5
South Alabama at Arkansas State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Come on now. The Jags should be favored.
Pick: South Alabama +1.5
Florida State at Louisville (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has cratered because of Florida State's performance last week. Has Ashton Daniels turned a corner? Lincoln Kienholz was clearly hobbled against North Carolina State, and whatever the injury was is likely still hobbling him.
It affected his running, which has been the best part of his game. This line still feels like an overreaction to the Seminoles blowing up Virginia. I don't trust this line as much, but I trust every Louisville running back. This is going to be an entertaining game.
Pick: Louisville -3.5
(20) Iowa at Washington (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This has all the makings of a trap game, and Vegas set the odds like it is. Washington has a solid back now in Brian Bonner Jr., but Iowa's run defense is still elite, and Demond Williams hasn't proven that he can beat anyone.
Pick: Iowa +3.5
Washington State at Utah State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Grady Brosterhous seems to have figured things out, and Wazzu just got stomped at home by Fresno. This line makes sense.
Pick: Utah State -5.5
Wyoming at San Jose State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Spartans played a clean game and got a win on the island. Wyoming specializes in making games unclean. I'll take the Spartans at home until Wyoming shows some signs of life on offense.
Pick: San Jose State -5.5
Iowa State at (8) BYU (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has plummeted thanks to BYU's terrible offensive performance (and Iowa State's great one). This feels like a game where Iowa State hangs around. I'll take BYU if it drops below 10, but that half is pushing me the other way.
Pick: Iowa State +10.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 5 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My results will follow.
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There is no reason for Western Kentucky to be this bad. This school produced Bailey Zappe (and groomed Caden Veltkamp) within the last five years.
North Texas (-1.5) at Tulsa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Talk about bad beats. Tulsa was ruled down on a two-point conversion in overtime to send the game. North Texas won by one, not 1.5.
What an ELITE ending ??
NORTH TEXAS BEATS TULSA BY JUST INCHES IN OVERTIME ?
This ending was ABSOLUTELY INSANE.
North Texas escaped Tulsa with a 45-44 overtime win after the entire game came down to a two-point conversion and a matter of inches.
Tulsa trailed 31-17 in the second half before storming all the way back, eventually tying the game at 38 with just 31 seconds remaining in regulation to force overtime.
North Texas struck first in OT, with QB Tayven Jackson punching it in from one yard out to give the Mean Green a 45-38 lead.
Tulsa answered right back.
Damari Alston scored from two yards out to make it 45-44, and instead of kicking the extra point and going to double overtime, Tulsa HC Tre Lamb kept his offense on the field and went for the WIN.
Baylor Hayes got the ball to Oran Singleton Jr., who fought toward the goal line and stretched the football out…
But he was ruled JUST SHORT. ?
The play went to replay, but the ruling stood, giving North Texas the 45-44 victory in one of the wildest finishes of the season.
North Texas finished with 559 total yards, including a monster performance from Jahiem White, who rushed for 219 yards on 32 carries. Jackson added 332 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air.
Four quarters and overtime came down to INCHES.
College football is unbelievable.
(Via ESPN)
— College Football Alerts (@CFBAlerts_) October 2, 2026
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Virginia Tech earned this loss. That was horrible clock management on the last drive. The win came at a steep price for Pittsburgh. Mason Heintschel was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Holden Geriner played well in relief, so there's optimism that is not lost.
Liberty (-7.5) at Delaware: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
With Nick Minicucci unavailable, the Delaware offense was a shell of itself. Three quarterbacks took snaps. Zero were effective.
Penn State (-2.5) at Northwestern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Was Penn State overrated? They likely didn't deserve to be ranked, so, sure. This is more than Northwestern is a strong team, and absolutely no one is admitting it.
I think it's a conspiracy since no one wants to admit that a version of the Wing T still exists. It not only exists, but it is working in modern college football.
SCHEME OF THE DAY:
Chip Kelly embracing his Wing-T roots running influence guard trap. The Wildcats rushed for 413 yards Friday night vs Penn State. 413 yards! https://t.co/VITQLBp3pv
— Kevin Smith (@KTSmithFootball) October 3, 2026
Memphis (-20.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
They could have played this during the storm, and it couldn't have possibly been any worse for Charlotte. This was the Marcus Stokes coming-out party.
(3) Notre Dame (-21.5) at North Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you only look at the stats, Notre Dame should have covered this. The Heels only had 285 yards of total offense, yet still managed 26 points.
(7) Alabama (-5.5) at (16) Mississippi State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Losing Fluff Bothwell early in the game hurt, but the Alabama defense was a menace for the entire game. This is the best game I've seen from an Alabama defense since the 2020 Arkansas game.
Keelon Russell was an unstoppable force for the offense. Lotzeir Brooks is WR 1A at the worst. All is well in Tuscaloosa right now.
Central Florida at (20) Houston (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that it has become cool to dump on Houston fans for not attending the game, but there was a literal weather advisory issued. Many chose to stay home even though the weather never hit during the game.
Leave Houston alone. This is a team heading in the right direction, and you should see the stadium full when the weather is nicer.
Boston College at (21) SMU (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was easy money. SMU turns the ball over too often to be an elite team, and Boston College is turning out to be a solid team.
Middle Tennessee State at Kansas (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, this was total domination by Kansas. I haven't seen a Kansas team look like this since 2008.
West Virginia at Iowa State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Riot Bowl always delivers. Iowa State RB Aiden Flora ran for three touchdowns and threw two touchdowns. Who needs a QB, anyway?
He did it again! ?
Two TD passes for running back Aiden Flora in the first half!
@FloraAiden
? @TNTSportsUS https://t.co/s8EE9SnfJl
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) October 3, 2026
Stanford at Wake Forest (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Wake Forest offense is fun again under Rob Ezell. The slow mesh was always an interesting concept, but not everyone can make it work. Sam Hartman and Demond Claiborne were perfect in that offense.
Gio Lopez is perfect in this offense. We knew it coming into the season. More of us should have paid attention when making preseason rankings.
Syracuse (-6.5) at Connecticut: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Syracuse made the switch to Amari Odom (you may remember him for leading Kennesaw State to a conference title last year), and the offense took off. It was an unceremonious end to the Steve Angeli era, but it needed to happen.
Michigan (-5.5) at Minnesota: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have known better. The Minnesota defensive line has been dominant for the last two weeks. Minnesota beat Michigan in Minneapolis for the first time in 49 years, and has the Little Brown Jug for the first time since 2014.
WHAT A DAY 〽️
#SkiUMah #Gophers #RTB https://t.co/BJAuZdAbyf
— Minnesota Football (@GopherFootball) October 3, 2026
If you don't like PJ Fleck, I'm convinced that you either hate college football or are a fan of Western Michigan or Wisconsin.
Navy at Air Force (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Don't blame Jackson Gutierrez. The Air Force defense was tough on everyone.
Michigan State at Wisconsin (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wisconsin changed the offense. It needed to be changed. It has been a disaster since Luke Fickell got there. You can credit Fickell for changing it up, but I have a feeling that it was a condition for him keeping his job.
Vanderbilt at (2) Georgia (-25.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Blaze Berlowitz gave a spirited effort for a half. Georgia took over the game in the second half, but it still wasn't enough to cover.
Western Michigan (-13.5) at Buffalo: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Western Michigan, the MAC favorite and the team that probably beat Michigan, trailed a Buffalo team that lost to Robert Morris for much of the game. I give up on the Broncos, and most of the MAC, for that matter...
Toledo (-19.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Keldric Luster looked good in this one, which can't be good for the Toledo defense.
(5) Ohio State (-14.5) at (14) Iowa: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In the last two weeks, Jeremiah Smith has 23 receptions for 423 yards and six touchdowns. He's the best receiver we have seen in college since Larry Fitzgerald.
200th CAREER RECEPTION FOR JEREMIAH SMITH https://t.co/n7Bqrzt4iY
— wok (@wokdior) October 3, 2026
(8) Florida (-5.5) at (25) Missouri: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Florida's defense was trampled by Missouri in this one. Not only that, but Missouri held the leading rusher in FBS to 13 yards on 12 carries. This was domination by Missouri.
Not enough people are talking about what Austin Simmons has done. He lost his job to Trinidad Chambliss after he got hurt. Simmons didn't pout. He stayed on the team and played some down the stretch.
He learned some valuable lessons there before transferring to Missouri for his chance to shine. That's exactly what he has done.
Auburn at (17) Tennessee (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
You have to credit Josh Heupel for making the move to George MacIntyre after Faizon Brandon struggled mightily. Not every coach is willing to do that.
MacIntyre completed 8-of-10 passes, and likely did enough to earn the start this week against Arkansas.
California at UNLV (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The loss of Adam Mohammed was massive, but this Cal offense is not nearly as good as it should be. The Cal brass went out and got receivers for Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and he proceeds to struggle more than he ever did last year as a freshman.
Louisville (-3.5) at North Carolina State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Lincoln Kienholz looked like he was playing hurt, but he didn't lose this game. The Louisville defense did.
Virginia (-2.5) at Florida State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Beau Pribula is doing what he did at Missouri. He looked amazing early on, then struggled down the stretch. The struggle is starting already.
Wyoming at North Dakota State (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't care how many people the Fargodome does (or doesn't) hold. It's one of the best atmospheres in college football. Now we just need the Kibbie Dome back in FBS...
Akron at Central Michigan (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There is a reason that I left this one alone.
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was not the ending that UMass deserved. The state of Michigan (with the exception of Michigan State) cost me a lot of money this week.
Ohio (-3.5) at Kent State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew that I didn't like that half.
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I flipped on this line after David McComb was ruled out, but I never expected the Falcons to win outright.
Old Dominion at Georgia State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not sure what I was afraid of. This was never a game.
Marshall at James Madison (-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Both James Madison and North Dakota State deserve to be in the CFP more than the fifth- or sixth-place team in the SEC.
Maryland at Nebraska (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The story of this game wasn't the Nebraska offense, but the horrendous gaffe of another Big Ten officiating crew. Nebraska missed an extra point, but Maryland was called for a penalty. Instead of retrying the extra point, the penalty was assessed on the kickoff. You can't make this stuff up.
In the end, it didn't matter. Nebraska won handily. It's the principle of it.
UTEP at New Mexico (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UTEP and Charlotte need to play each other. I need to know who the worst team in FBS is. It has to be close.
(24) Kentucky at South Carolina (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Vegas lost some serious coin on this one by offering plus odds on the Kentucky side. Bettors had been smashing Kentucky all week. Don't worry. Vegas made it back on Florida bettors.
Purdue at Illinois (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have bet heavier on Purdue. I knew that Illinois was capable of losing this game. Bret Bielema and Shane Beamer are in a dead heat for first coach fired in 2026.
Oregon State (-6.5) at Colorado State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
True freshman receiver Jesse Legree is so good that opposing teams are firing defensive coordinators in the middle of games now.
Jesse Legree's first 5 career collegiate football games:
5 receptions, 136 yards, 1 TD
8 rec., 240 yards, 2 TD
4 rec., 100 yards, 1 TD
6 rec., 109 yards, 2 TD
5 rec., 157 yards, 3 TDAn absolute STAR
https://t.co/SOUyJElTeP
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 4, 2026
(10) BYU (-6.5) at TCU: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
BYU is ugly, but effective. This was the worst game of Bear Bachmeier's career, but he still salvaged two rushing touchdowns to make it look respectable.
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
What is it with terrible teams having good receivers? Chris Marshall and KJ Duff of Rutgers are both amazing receivers, but they are wasted on their respective teams.
UTSA (-11.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
My 10-game streak was ended by Rice's option. The Rice defense played well enough to win this, but the offense just missed the bell.
Georgia Southern (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Max Johnson redemption tour continues.
Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Jared Hollins played in relief of Bishop Davenport again, and it was more of the same. The Jaguars are once again a fun team to watch.
(4) Miami (FL) (-16.5) at Clemson: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Clemson hung around for a while, but the gap between Miami and the rest of the ACC is 13 points. Clemson is not anywhere near as good as the second-best team in the ACC.
(12) Texas Tech (-12.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The go-go offense is a disaster at Colorado so far.
Washington at (18) USC (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Brian Bonner Jr. has finally given Washington some semblance of a run game. It was one costly fumble by Demond Williams Jr. that gifted USC the win. Washington deserved to win this game.
Utah State at (22) Boise State (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Utah State's made two-point conversion in the fourth quarter blew the cover.
Temple at South Florida (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is another one I should have been more certain about. The Temple defense has been impressive, and the offense is coming around behind Ajani Sheppard.
Army (-1.5) at Louisiana Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Army's defense was gouged in this one.
(6) Indiana (-23.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Indiana offense might be as good as last year after all. Nick Marsh, Josh Hoover, and Turbo Richard all had big games in this one.
Arkansas State at Louisiana (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Louisiana was lucky to win this game at all.
Fresno State at Washington State (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The growth of Jayden Mandal since the USC game is impressive.
Baylor at Arizona State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
DJ Lagway had a big game for the Bears. The completion percentage still leaves something to be desired, but this is something to build from. Freshman RB Ryelan Morris could be a star.
Huge performance for Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway: 25-40 for 306 yards, 4 passing TDs, rushing TD.
Baylor's 55-19 win over Arizona State is the biggest since Sept. 18, 2021 against Kansas. Three months later, the Bears won the Big 12 championship.
https://t.co/FGwPV7Zuje
— Shehan Jeyarajah (@ShehanJeyarajah) October 4, 2026
Texas State (-6.5) at San Diego State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Mumps outbreak? What mumps outbreak? This was one of the more entertaining games of the night. It was also a chilling reminder of how much Brad Jackson has regressed since last year.
Cincinnati at Arizona (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Arizona got Giovanni Richardson back only to lose him about an hour later to a hamstring injury. Tre Spivey might be hurt going into next week as well. Looking at Arizona's rushing woes, this team is really going to need to lean on Noah Fifita.
San Jose State at Hawaii (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hawaii continues to look awful. They were shut out in the first half by a struggling San Jose State defense.
College Football Betting Season Results
For the second consecutive week, I broke even without the points bets at 28-28. That puts my season total at 125-146. Again, I lost points because of my horrible four-point bets.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-3 (17-16) = 1
2. 4-8 (41-52) = -22
3. 17-8 (49-38) = 33
4. 3-7 (12-30) = -72
5. 1-2 (6-10) = -20
I only lost two points this week, but that's two more than I wanted to lose. I'm down 80 points for the season. My stasis in the last two weeks hasn't helped. It will get better this week! We're still learning valuable things.
More College Football Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
