RADIO
RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 5. Picks with confidence points for Week 5 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
Week 4 saw 25 entries break 40 points in the RotoBaller Reader's Group. "JBTiger83" and "2pretty4orange" led the group with 47 points this week. "Littlemy" finished in third place with 45 points. Then came the logjam.
We have a whole new leaderboard in the group this week. Ryan_Peoples took the lead with 169 points this season. Gavin and Ted both have 168 points. Rad, Dr.SteveBrule, and 50Centi have 166 points to tie for third place.
There hasn't been much separation among the group pickers yet this year. It took 564 points to win the RotoBaller group last year. At the end of the first quarter of the season, no one is still on pace to break that mark. It has been a tougher season so far. 15 entries have 160 points or more, so one week can still change everything!
Featured Promo: Get any College Football Premium Pass for 50% off and win more using code CHAMP. Exclusive access to our industry-leading DFS Lineup Optimizer, DFS Cheat Sheets and Premium Discord Chat rooms. Go Premium, Win More!
College Football Pick'em Overview.
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. This feels like a tough week. Don't forget to come back here before kickoff on Saturday to see if I've changed any of them around.
(1) Mississippi State over Alabama
I expect a really good game here, even though Vegas (-6), FPI (74.2%), and the public (85%) don't. Kamario Taylor is a difference maker.
SUPER KAMARIO CLUTCH pic.twitter.com/OdAzDfUQZ7
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 27, 2026
The matchup between Taylor and Keelon Russell is going to be one of the most intriguing ones of our day of college football. Russell broke through last week against South Carolina.
Taylor has been amazing at home and on the road this season. The Tide were gouged repeatedly by a less-talented Florida State offense a couple of weeks ago. South Carolina never gained traction because they can't run the ball.
Mississippi State can. Fluff Bothwell has 402 rushing yards in four games and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Taylor has 185 rushing yards. I like this enough to try and steal a point.
(2) South Carolina over Kentucky
The AP still ranked Kentucky even after A&M fell apart. I don't really agree. Neither do Vegas (South Carolina -2.5) or FPI (57.9% SC).
I've heard enough LaNorris Sellers hype to choke a horse this year, but Kentucky's Kenny Minchey has been better. I think Kentucky has a really good chance to win this, but South Carolina is only being picked at 25% and the metrics favor them. I have to take the chance.
(3) Iowa State over West Virginia
The Riot Bowl has the best trophy in college football.
The Riot Bowl Trophy belongs in Morgantown WV. pic.twitter.com/zsl5LwnToj
— Jeff Ruff (@jeff_ruff) September 29, 2026
The photo above doesn't do it justice. It's half gas can, half Busch Light case box. The trophy is labeled in ransom-type lettering. It's called the Riot Bowl because both fanbases love alcohol and fire.
West Virginia fans used to set couches on fire in the streets of Morgantown after big wins. Iowa State's Veishea parties were permanently banned in 2015 after another riot in 2014 (there were five confirmed riots between 1988 and 2014 during Veishea week).
When West Virginia joined the Big 12, they were matched with Iowa State during rivalry week since both teams played their rivalry games earlier in the season. The Riot Bowl was born.
The “Riot Bowl” even though it is still a rather new rivalry game, if you can even call it a rivalry game due to mutual respect between fan bases, is one of the most competitively even rivalry game’s in the nation.
First Game: 2012, ISU | 24-31 | WVU
Last Game: 2024, ISU |… pic.twitter.com/Y6vgT0kv0Z
— Jake Ferguson (@ISUFerg) September 28, 2026
This has been a very entertaining series, and I expect more of the same this year. Iowa State hung with a very good Utah team last week and a very good Iowa team two weeks before.
The offense took a little figuring out, but this defense has been very impressive. Utah was the only team this year to break 100 rushing yards on the Cyclones.
The public is heavy on West Virginia (66%), but Iowa State is a home favorite in Vegas and a big FPI favorite (62.3%). This is a perfect place to steal points, especially when the metrics believe in you.
(4) Arizona State over Baylor
I love this part. Arizona State is a four-point home favorite over the Bears, but FPI has Baylor at 52.4%. When FPI and Vegas have disagreed this year, Vegas is right over 80% of the time.
Apparently no one else believes FPI either. The public is 78% on the Sun Devils. This is one of those that I may flip depending on how heavily the public keeps siding with Arizona State, but I just can't go with ESPN over Vegas.
(5) Arizona over Cincinnati
I trust Noah Fifita and the offense. The Arizona defense has been an adventure. JC French IV has filled in nicely for the Bearcats, and the defense looked the part against Avery Johnson and Kansas State last week.
I don't fully trust Arizona here, but they should still win. Arizona is a heavy favorite, but the Bearcats were supposed to lose to Kansas State too...
(6) Michigan over Minnesota
The Minnesota defense put Demond Williams Jr. through the wringer last Saturday in Seattle. I trust Williams more than Bryce Underwood, but there is no way the Michigan line is going to give up seven sacks. They may not give up one.
This should be another ugly game, but I trust the Michigan offense far more than Iowa's.
(7) Ohio State over Iowa
Vegas isn't expecting this to be a game (Ohio State -14). I think they're wrong. Iowa is going to hang around in this one. I'm not to the point where I would pick them to win. The Ohio State offense is just too good.
Jeremiah Smith just settled ALL DEBATES, he is the GREATEST WR prospect ever.
• 12 receptions (career-high)
• 217 receiving yards (career-high)
• 4 receiving TD’s (career-high)The Buckeyes WR was UNSTOPPABLE in the GREATEST game of his career ?? pic.twitter.com/DhJLDREfJc
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 26, 2026
(8) BYU over TCU
TCU does not look like the same team that collapsed in Ireland. Part of it is the maturation of Jaden Craig. Another part is the return of Jordan Dwyer.
The public is heavy on BYU, as they should be. The Cougars have only allowed 47 points in three games. The offense is balanced with playmakers all over the field, starting with quarterback Bear Bachmeier.
(9) Virginia over Florida State
Many soured on Virginia after the loss to West Virginia, but not me. I remember what this team did to North Carolina State in Week 0. West Virginia won because that offense is innovative and hard to stop.
Florida State's offense has been a strength this year, but that defense is a mess. This may be a higher-scoring affair, but Ashton Daniels is more mistake-prone than Beau Pribula.
(10) Florida over Missouri
Missouri being ranked is a joke. Florida should likely be higher than eighth. They dominated a Mississippi team with two ranked wins. One was over a top-10 team.
Jadan Baugh has been arguably the best running back in the country. He is on pace for 33 rushing touchdowns. Only two running backs in FBS history have ever done that.
Montee Ball scored 33 touchdowns in 2011. Barry Sanders scored 37 in 1988, which was the best season ever for a running back. Those are the types of numbers that Baugh is putting up right now.
Jadan Baugh is one of the best PURE RUNNERS the NFL Draft has seen in a while.
Multiple NFL scouts reportedly believe Baugh could “finish” as a Top-15 overall player in the 2027 NFL Draft.
The Gators haven’t had a RB prospect like this in a LONG TIME ?? pic.twitter.com/eTvqB7PwgK
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 17, 2026
