Week 16 NFL Bets and Props for Novig (Sunday, 12/21)

December 20, 2025

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 16. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

Sunday brings 12 more NFL games, and it's starting to get to the point of the season where we have to remember that these big Sunday slates are going to vanish pretty soon as the playoffs are only a few weeks away. Let's take advantage of this juicy slate of NFL action and find some great betting opportunities, shall we?

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props on Novig for Sunday's games!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER, and you'll receive a $25 purchase match (50% discount up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get a free month of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

For example, if you set the odds of the Panthers to win on Sunday at +150, then anyone can flip the bet and take the Buccaneers to win at -150 on their end.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NFL Picks Against the Spread

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-111 NOVIG) at New York Giants

Perhaps a 31-0 win over a bad Commanders team didn't impress you, but the Vikings backed it up with a win over the Cowboys last week and are looking like a team that is trending in the right direction here at the end of the season, despite having no hopes at the postseason.

The Giants have lost eight straight games and only covered this spread in one of those (a close loss to Denver way back in Week 7. They're losing by an average of 6.9 points - virtually a touchdown per game. They are on the road, but I am good backing the Vikings at this number as they need only to win by a field goal to cover for us.

Compare at (-118) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Passing Prop Bets

Tyler Shough OVER 217.5 Passing Yards (-112 NOVIG)

The Jets' pass defense continues to be the softest unit in football, as they were carved up for 330 yards last week by Trevor Lawrence and company. Meanwhile, the Saints' gunslinger Shough has been in solid form lately, easily crossing this threshold in four of his last five games.

Shough to Olave! @Saints tie it up late

CARvsNO on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/kkzQ8FDNkP

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2025

This game means very little (other than the loser getting a better draft pick), and the Saints are no 6.5-point favorites at home, so many are expecting them to be the team that actually puts up some points this week. Without their top running backs healthy, we could also see them let Shough throw it more this week, too. I think he sails over this number with ease. The Jets have yet to stop anyone and have not recorded a single interception yet this year!

Rushing Prop Bets

Derrick Henry OVER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-104 NOVIG)

I recommended another running back in a tough spot earlier this week (James Cook vs. Cleveland), and my rationale here with Derrick Henry against the Pats is quite similar. The Baltimore run game is rounding into form lately, and their identity on offense the last two seasons has been to pound the football with Henry until opponents load up to stop the run or just get run over.

Henry has put together two good games in a row, rushing for 94 yards against Pittsburgh and then 100 yards last week (on just 11 carries) against Cincinnati. While the Patriots had been stifling opposing rushing attacks all season, perhaps their ranking was a bit of a fakeout or a product of playing a soft schedule, because they've given up exactly 107 yards to each of Chase Brown and Cook in two of their last three games.

Baltimore is favored in this game and is playing at home in a must-win situation for their playoff hopes. I think we see a heavy dose of Henry and that the big man breaks off a few big runs on his way to another 100-yard day.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

Jalen Coker OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-118 NOVIG)

Coker has emerged in the last two weeks as the WR2 in this offense behind Tetairoa McMillan, but his yardage prop is a bit slow to catch up to the recent trend. He went 4-74 on six targets against the Rams in Week 14 (30% target share) and then followed that up with a 4-60 (20% target share) outing last week against the Saints.

Bryce Young with a DIME to Jalen Coker to extend the @Panthers lead!

CARvsNO on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/hNjCsR7fa9

— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025

With the Bucs often forcing opponents to throw the ball more, we should see Carolina take to the air to try to move the chains in this one. It's a low bar to cross for Coker, who, when healthy, has been a very productive receiver in his young career.

De'Von Achane OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-122 NOVIG)

The Bengals have a terrible run defense; most people know that, as we've been targeting them for rushing props often this season. But you may not realize that they rank dead last against running backs as receivers (DVOA), too.

Cincinnati has given up some huge receiving performances to opposing backs this season. Kenneth Gainwell went 7-81, Dylan Sampson went 8-64, and even Josh Jacobs went 5-57.

My theory is that the Dolphins will likely dial up a lot of easy throws to Achane for their young quarterback Quinn Ewers, who is making his first start of the season. No one is as dangerous as Achane out in the open field.

He could go over this number with only a few catches!

Anytime Touchdown Bets

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+215 NOVIG)

These are simply the best odds you will find anywhere on a Kelce touchdown this week, hands down. There was a time during his prime that Kelce was often -110 or even shorter odds to score a touchdown, yet we are getting him over 2-to-1 odds to find the end zone this week.

Sure, it's Gardner Minshew II and not Patrick Mahomes under center, but it's still the Tennessee pass defense, which has been one of the worst in the league. With Rashee Rice out, I expect Minshew to hone in on Kelce and Xavier Worthy this week. Kelce has always been a great red zone target, and the Titans have already allowed seven receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.

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