NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 3) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

September 20, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season. Two weeks are already down in the NFL season, and we can start to learn a lot about each team. The Indianapolis Colts, at least early on, look like one of the out-of-nowhere type teams that win more games than expected. Daniel Jones is keeping the train on the tracks and distributing effectively to the Colts crew of weapons, including Jonathan Taylor, who looks like he could be on his way to an Offensive Player of the Year caliber of season.

Then on the flip side, we have the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs sitting at 0-2 and now going on the road to the Meadowlands to meet the fireballer Russell Wilson and the Giants. Wilson threw for 450 yards last week against Dallas, the second-highest total of his career. That speaks to the week-to-week nature of the NFL, I suppose, as just one week earlier, he didn't look like an NFL quarterback against Washington.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in picks for each game and tier them based on my confidence level for the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized. Our sample size has doubled for the season, so we will be digging into a few advanced stats to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 3.

Week 3 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - Green Bay at Cleveland

The Packers faced two offenses that finished No. 3 and No. 4 in EPA/Play and were in the NFC Divisional round last season, to begin the season in Washington and Detroit. With new addition Micah Parsons, the Green Bay defense has terrorized opposing offenses, allowing 31 combined points. And on the other side, Jordan Love is running a clean operation and capitalizing on mistakes by the defense. They look like a top team in football, and the Browns were feisty in the first half against Baltimore last week, but the dam broke eventually.

• 15 - Buffalo vs. Miami

Week 3 kicks off with an AFC East matchup that has had a lopsided result in recent years. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-8 and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (9 TDs, 10 INTs) against Buffalo in his career. Even the lone win in September 2022 was an incredibly weird game where Miami ran only 39 plays to Buffalo's 90 and was outgained 497 to 212. It was the infamous "Butt Punt" game that took Miami to 3-0. Vibes aren't quite as good with the Dolphins this year, and Buffalo should roll.

THE PUNT GOES OUT THE REAR OF THE END ZONE! #FinsUp

📺: #BUFvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/AgvEitKLgz pic.twitter.com/Ry39X0bkrK

— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022

• 14 - Tampa Bay vs. New York Jets

It's Tyrod Taylor time for the Jets with Justin Fields ruled out for Week 3 with a concussion. The shine wore off rather quickly for the Jets after an exciting Week 1. Tampa Bay, on the other side, is coming off a thrilling comeback victory with Baker Mayfield willing his team across the finish line. They should take care of business in their home opener to get to 3-0.

Gutsy call to go on 4th down deep in their own territory and Baker picks up the first!

TBvsHOU on ESPN/ABC
Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/IoFhVUDbwU

— NFL (@NFL) September 16, 2025

• 13 - Seattle vs. New Orleans

Seattle looked sharp on both sides of the ball in Week 2 against Pittsburgh. The running game looks like a strength, and Sam Darnold threw for 295 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, but has managed Klint Kubiak's system well and found Jaxon Smith-Njigba often. The Saints look like a competent team with Kellen Moore leading the team, but there's not enough to pull off an upset against a buttoned-up defense.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 3 Pick 'Em Pools

• 12 - Indianapolis at Tennessee

The Colts haven't quite made their way into lock territory against a bad Titans team, but they are right on the edge. The offense looks crisp and driven by the run game with Jonathan Taylor, while Lou Anarumo makes things work on the defensive side. They pretty handily look like the best team in the division and should handle Tennessee, despite Cam Ward showing plenty of flashes and their defense not being a total pushover.

The Colts missed a game-winning FG from 60 yards in the final seconds of the game.

But the Broncos committed a penalty, resulting in a re-kick.

Indianapolis goes on to hit a 45-yard FG to win the game.

🎥 @NFL pic.twitter.com/u3Sjje79HU

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 14, 2025

• 11 - Kansas City at New York Giants

A clash between two 0-2 teams on Sunday Night Football. It would be much more concerning to see the Chiefs fall to 0-3 at the end of the day, but still wouldn't be the end of the world for their playoff hopes. What version of Russell Wilson and the Giants offense will we see? Will the Chiefs be able to generate any offense with Xavier Worthy (shoulder) sitting out again?

• 10 - Atlanta at Carolina

The Falcons' defense is starting to generate some buzz two weeks into the season. They held Tampa Bay's offense to a 39% success rate (26th percentile) in Week 1 before smothering J.J. McCarthy for six sacks and shutting down the Vikings in his second career start. McCarthy finished with a -0.62 EPA/Play, ranking in the 3rd percentile of all quarterback performances since 2010. Bryce Young was brutal in the first half against Arizona before turning it on a bit too late to lose by one score. NFC South games are always odd, and this matchup in particular has had weird games, but the Falcons look promising early on with their revamped pass rush.

• 9 - Washington vs. Las Vegas

This game has plenty of uncertainty with Jayden Daniels' status up in the air. But Marcus Mariota proved to be capable of stepping in when called upon last season. There are also questions around that; however, with Mariota missing a lot of the summer with Achilles tendonitis. The Chargers abused the Raiders last Monday night, and on a short week and cross-country travel, Washington expects to win this game despite the injuries piling up a bit.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 3

• 8 - Dallas at Chicago

This spread is tight at nearly a pick 'em, but I have a fairly strong lean towards Dallas on the road. The Bears look like a mess overall right now, and while the Cowboys' defense was lit up by Russell Wilson, they held up okay against Philadelphia in Week 1. Dak Prescott and the offense are humming, and I'd expect them to win this game.

• 7 - Minnesota vs. Cincinnati

The Justin Jefferson vs. Ja'Marr Chase matchup has now been overshadowed by Carson Wentz and Jake Browning as the starting quarterbacks for each team in Week 3 of the season. Browning has shown that he can run Zac Taylor's offense just fine, while Wentz should, at a minimum, be at a higher level than J.J. McCarthy. In a game between backup quarterbacks, we are trusting the better defense and coaching staff.

• 6 - Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver

The Chargers look like one of the more complete teams in the NFL through two weeks. After thoroughly beating the Chiefs in Brazil, they went to Las Vegas and gave Geno Smith nightmares, sacking and intercepting him three times each and holding the Raiders offense to an abysmal 33 % success rate (8th percentile). And on the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Greg Roman has Justin Herbert slinging at a league-high rate at a 14.8% Pass Rate Over Expected, almost double the Chiefs in second at 7.7%. Denver is coming off a devastating walk-off loss at Indianapolis after an unfortunate penalty, and they have their issues with Bo Nix's struggles and their defense not looking quite as dominant as some had predicted.

• 5 - Baltimore vs. Detroit

Game of the week on Monday Night Football. Highest point total of the week at 52.5. A potential Super Bowl preview? The last time these two teams faced off in 2023, Baltimore absolutely shredded Detroit 38-6. The Ravens had over 500 yards of offense and sacked Jared Goff five times. The Ravens offense has peaked even higher in the Todd Monken era now, and the Lions offense is among the most talented in the league. There should be plenty of fireworks in this one.

#Ravens QB Lamar Jackson in his last 20 games:

🟪 367/543
🟪 4,927 passing yards
🟪 1,033 rushing yards
🟪 57 TDs
🟪 4 INTs
🟪 125.1 passer rating

Just absurd! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/9GLucmjW9B

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) September 15, 2025

• 4 - San Francisco vs. Arizona

Another mystery matchup with Brock Purdy's stats up in the air. Mac Jones filled in admirably in his absence, throwing for 279 yards and three touchdowns. The difference isn't super drastic between the two, and I would likely lean toward San Francisco's direction regardless. Both teams are dealing with plenty of injuries, and while Arizona holds an undefeated record, it hasn't come most convincingly with two one-score wins over weak NFC South teams.

• 3 - Pittsburgh at New England

Pittsburgh's defense has looked shaky to start the year, and Rodgers struggled a bit against a tough Seattle defense. However, they should get two key pieces in the secondary in Joey Porter Jr. and DeShon Elliot back for this matchup. For New England, second-year quarterback Drake Maye looked really sharp against Miami. It feels like a game for the Steelers to bounce back against a leaky New England defense, and the defense gets right against an offense that lacks a lot of juice.

• 2 - Jacksonville vs.  Houston

Vibes aren't so good with either of these AFC South teams at the moment. Liam Coen is answering tough questions about his players in post-game press conferences, and the Texans have scored the fewest points in the league (28) through two weeks. The Houston defense still looks great, and surprisingly, so does Jacksonville. They own the seventh-best defensive success rate (40.2%) and are tied for second with 10 quarterback knockdowns. Their offense has worked through some kinks with Trevor Lawrence, but for the most part has still moved the ball efficiently.

• 1 - Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia

A rematch of one of the NFC Divisional round matchups. The Rams were a few plays away from stealing that game on the road, with Matthew Stafford throwing for over 320 and two touchdowns, and their defense sacking Jalen Hurts a whopping seven times. The Rams are 3.5 underdogs on the road, but it feels like a game they pull out, with some of Philadelphia's woes on offense hurting them.

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