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Matt's must-have fantasy football sleepers and draft values for 2025. His top QB, RB, WR, and TE undervalued fantasy football draft targets and "My Guys" picks.
With the Hall of Fame Game now behind us, NFL football officially begins for the other 30 teams and the millions upon millions of fantasy football enthusiasts.
As we enter peak draft season, it's crucial to identify and target some of the more underrated players, finding their values that others often overlook. Often, we see value in those discarded due to injury, and those players become "My Guys."
Here are eight players with baked-in value that you must select when your fantasy football draft kicks off.
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Fantasy Football Sleeper, Value Picks: Quarterback
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
While many quickly dismiss the past regarding fantasy football, that would be a massive mistake for Dak Prescott and his fantasy outcome this season. For those who need reminding, back in 2023, when Prescott was healthy, the Cowboys' signal caller finished fourth in fantasy points per game, averaging 20.7 per contest, finishing as the QB3 overall.
The Cowboys have scored points on 46.9% of their possessions in Dak Prescott’s starts – which would lead the Lions (46.1%) as the top scoring offense over the last two combined seasons.
CeeDee Lamb is averaging 18.5 Half-PPR points per game across Dak’s last 25 games. That would…
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 11, 2025
What gives Prescott an advantage over several other fantasy options? It's price versus potential, it's as simple as that. Prescott is currently pegged as the QB10 in ADP, which has him coming off the board at the end of the eighth round or early in the ninth in many fantasy football drafts. Dallas will lean heavily on the pass, considering they are entrusting Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and fifth-round draft selection Jaydon Blue with the running game.
The lack of a sufficient running game and the addition of George Pickens offer fantasy managers elite passing volume and touchdown upside. Again, it was only two seasons ago when Prescott tossed 36 touchdown passes. In Prescott's last three "healthy" seasons, he has eclipsed 30 passing touchdowns and 4,400 passing yards in each. Using 30 touchdowns and 4,400 passing yards as a floor, Prescott would be the QB11 last season.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
Two other quarterbacks I am targeting outside the top-12 are J.J. McCarthy of the Vikings and Jordan Love of the Packers. According to RotoBallers ADP, Love is the QB16, which would line up with his QB16 finish from a year ago when he produced 242.1 fantasy points. However, in what many consider a down year for Love, he still averaged 17.3 fantasy points per contest (QB13).
Jordan Love missed Weeks 2-3 and played through a groin injury from Week 8 on.
The Packers posted a +3.6% Pass Rate Over Expectation in 5 games with a healthy Love, which would have ranked 7th-highest.
In their other games? A -8.2% PROE, which would have ranked dead-last. pic.twitter.com/9fd4yXrfB3
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 23, 2025
Like Prescott, many forget that just two seasons ago, Love accumulated 311 fantasy points while averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game, the fifth-most. In that 2023 campaign, Love tossed 32 touchdown passes (second) and threw for 4,159 yards (seventh).
In 2024, those passing touchdowns took a step back as Josh Jacobs ran the ball into the end zone on 15 occasions. While Jacobs is returning to lead the backfield, the Packers added to Love's passing arsenal this offseason, selecting Matthew Golden in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Why was the Golden selection significant? The last time Green Bay drafted a receiver in the first round was in 2002 when the team selected Javon Walker. The investment in Golden and the passing game will add another dimension to the Packers' passing attack, ultimately leading to some touchdown regression on Jacobs's part.
Love's yards per attempt increased from 7.2 to 8.0 while his touchdown rate was better in 2024 than in 2023 (5.5% to 5.9%). With Golden, those numbers are primed to increase once again.
Fantasy Football Sleeper, Value Picks: Running Back
D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
In 2023, D'Andre Swift finished as the RB17 thanks to 39 receptions and 1,263 total yards. Last season, Swift totalled 1,345 yards, hauling in 42 of his 52 targets, leading to an RB19 finish. At worst, Swift is a proven RB2 for fantasy managers and, with his receiving upside, has the potential to finish inside the top-10 at his position any given week.
This season, Ben Johnson takes over in Chicago as the head coach, a familiar face for Swift. Johnson was the Detroit Lions' passing game coordinator in 2021 before being promoted to Offensive Coordinator in 2022. During that 2021 season, Swift was averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game and, on a per-game basis, was the 11th highest scoring running back in fantasy.
The following season, injuries took their toll, forcing Swift to miss four contests; however, Swift's 13.5 fantasy points per game were tied with Kenneth Walker III for the 16th most.
Behind Swift, neither Roschon Johnson nor rookie Kyle Monangai has shown much of a threat to Swift's workload thus far. While some believe Johnson disliked Swift during their tenure in Detroit, Johnson was creative in getting Swift involved in the passing game, as he was targeted often, leading to multiple five-plus reception outings.
The Ben Johnson hates D'Andre Swift narrative is silly.
In 2021 with Johnson as pass game coordinator - Swift earned a career high in catches & receiving yards.
In 2022 with Johnson as OC - Swift ranked 2nd in yards per touch, 5th in yards per route run & earn 70 targets...
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) June 20, 2025
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots
TreVeyon Henderson has considerable upside this season. If you are a manager locked into the "Hero" or "Anchor" running back strategy, then Henderson is the second back you want to add to that running back stable.
During Henderson's tenure at Ohio State, he tallied 3,761 yards, 42 touchdowns, and averaged 6.4 yards per carry. As a pass catcher, he went on to haul in 77 receptions for 853 yards and an additional six touchdowns. That dual-threat ability was on full display last season when Henderson averaged 7.1 yards per carry, producing 1300 total yards on 171 touches.
It doesn't hurt either that he has more National Championships than fumbles.
TreVeyon Henderson’s 145 Rushing Attempts were the LEAST by a player who cleared the 1,000+ yard mark.
He’s going to be a monster on a per touch basis..
0 Fumbles (667 Career Touches) ain’t bad either, Mike Vrabel handpicked him.
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) July 25, 2025
Henderson doesn't need many touches to become fantasy-relevant as his profile suggests. If given some space, Henderson is a home run threat every time he touches the ball, thanks to that 4.43 40 speed. Henderson is also exceptional in pass protection, so if Rhamondre Stevenson struggles, Henderson could have an even larger role in this offense than anticipated.
Fantasy Football Sleeper, Value Picks: Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
It's about volume and connection in New York. Even while splitting targets with Davante Adams for most of the season, Wilson still saw 153 targets, hauling in 101 for his third straight 1,000-yard season. Heading into 2025, Josh Reynolds is the primary competition for Adams' vacated targets. In eight seasons, Reynolds has seen a total of 397 targets, with a high of 81 in 2020.
Jets WR Garrett Wilson's 2024 #ReceptionPerception Profile is up on the site 🔥
Some highlights:
- 77.6% success rate vs. man coverage (94th percentile)
- 82.4% success rate vs. zone
- 78.6% success rate vs. press
- Best contested catch rate of his careerWilson is an awesome… pic.twitter.com/izZEW4kRnO
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 30, 2025
Currently, the Jets' wide receiver is coming off the board as WR16 despite averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game and posting more than 242 fantasy points last season, which positioned him as the overall WR9 in PPR scoring, doing so with Adams playing opposite him. Diving deeper into the metrics, Wilson received a 25.2% target share, 10th highest among receivers, as his 153 targets trailed only Ja'Marr Chase and Malik Nabers.
As Wilson enters his fourth season, he enters that peak breakout period in which we often see wide receivers break out in fantasy. That usually occurs between seasons three and five, and a perfect storm is brewing in New York. With breakout season upon us, we factor in that Justin Fields' deep ball that saw D.J. Moore and Pickens finish in the top-10 in average deep ball passing yards.
In addition, with Fields's 22.5% hit rate on such passes, with Wilson's 0.152 Average Separation Score versus man coverage, you can see there is a fantasy league winner on the horizon.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
If you are looking for a potential WR1 for a WR3 price this fantasy season, look no further than Tennessee's Calvin Ridley. Since returning to the NFL in 2023, Ridley has posted back-to-back 1000-yard seasons while catching passes from the likes of Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Ryan Tannehill, and Malik Willis. Ridley may be quarterback-proof.
Heading into 2025, Ridley will hope that rookie quarterback Cam Ward can do something that none of the previous quarterbacks could do: deliver a catchable pass. Of the 117 targets that found their way going in Ridley's direction, only 79 were deemed catchable. That's 67.5%, near the bottom third of the league.
If Ward can live up to the first overall hype and increase that percentage, the 29.7% first-read share and 44.4% air yards share that Ridley experienced a season ago could lead to much bigger things.
Calvin Ridley’s 2024 #ReceptionPerception profile shows the veteran WR played really well in isolation last year 👀
Some highlights:
- 73.2% success rate vs man coverage
- 79.4% success rate vs zone coverage
- 78.5% success rate vs press (85th percentile)Several of Ridley’s… pic.twitter.com/JRp5687Wpk
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) July 30, 2025
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
I know Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are a thing; however, I'm not here to start rumours, but the music icon's first love may have been Jakobi Meyers.
Look: Players gonna play, play, play, play, And haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate.
If that isn't about Meyers, I have no clue who it would be about. No other receiver gets the preseason disrespect that Meyers endures every year. Every year, Meyers ADP is outside the top-40, and this year is no different, as the Raiders receiver is currently the WR42 despite finishing as the WR29, WR29, WR24, and WR19 from 2021 through 2024.
Meyers has frequently been selected in the eighth round of fantasy drafts, which is a screaming bargain considering he is a legitimate WR2 in fantasy and, along with Brock Bowers, will be the lone threats in a Raiders passing game. Meyers is coming off a career high of 87 receptions that led to his first 1,000-yard season, which is impressive, seeing as Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell were tasked with getting him the ball.
Jakobi Meyers propagandapic.twitter.com/SyPXeU3NY2
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 26, 2025
Heading into 2025, the addition of Geno Smith will allow Meyers to improve on last season's numbers further.
Smith joins the Raiders with one of the best completion percentages over expectation over the last three seasons and has been one of the top three accurate quarterbacks on 20-plus throws over the previous four seasons. Expect even better things from Smith as he receives an upgrade along the offensive line, which will benefit his overall production, leading to an even more productive Meyers in 2025.
Fantasy Football Sleeper, Value Picks: Tight End
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
If you miss out on the "Big Three" (Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle), Hockenson will serve as a nice consolation prize that you can get nearly four rounds later.
Due to injury, Hockenson was sidelined until Week 9 of the 2024 season. Upon his return, the Vikings tight end averaged 9.3 fantasy points and produced three top-10 finishes. Before last season, Hockenson had finished with 60 or more receptions in each season in which he played in 10 or more contests and had 181 combined in the previous two seasons—elite potential at a discounted price.
Also working in Hockenson's favour is the emergence of second-year quarterback McCarthy under center, who replaces Sam Darnold in what is expected to be a high-octane offense. Tight ends are often a quarterback's best friend, and with Jordan Addison's off-field transgressions resulting in a three-game suspension, Hockenson will slide in as McCarthy's second read, behind Justin Jefferson.
The potential of this offense under McCarthy's control will lead to more red zone opportunities, where defenses need to pay special attention to Hockenson.
Highest Pass Rates when a TE was on the field in 2024...
Mike Gesicki 85.3%
Jonnu Smith 79.3%
TJ Hockenson 78.0%
Noah Fant 76.2%
Evan Engram 71.0%
Kyle Pitts 70.7%
Zach Ertz 70.1%
Dalton Schultz 69.3%
David Njoku 69.2%
Jake Ferguson 68.7%
Tyler Conklin 68.7%
Brock Bowers 68.3%— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) May 30, 2025
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