Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 26)

September 13, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 26 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 26 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! We're running out of time to make those moves that will get us to the fantasy championship, so perhaps there is someone in here who can help get you there. In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Spencer Horwitz and Tommy Edman.

Perhaps these hitters are about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Taylor Ward and Lawrence Butler were a couple of good call-outs from last week who have continued to hit very well. Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 9/11

Lawrence Butler has far and away the longest streak in the majors right now at 19 games. What he is doing is great, as he's not just hitting for power but for average, too, and also chipping in some stolen bases. He's been outlined in the last two Breakout Watch articles, though, so we'll move on to some others. (Update: Butler went 1-for-4 with a double on Thursday, extending his streak to 20 games)

Luis Arraez (10)

He isn't always great for fantasy, with low RBI and extra-base hit numbers, but please just sit back and appreciate what Luis Arraez is doing right now. Yes, he is on a 10-game hit streak and has hit safely in 13 of his last 14 games, scoring 10 times and swiping three bags over that 14-game stretch.

But did you know the last time he struck out was back on August 10? That was 27 games and more than 100 at-bats ago!

Colt Keith (8)

Colt Keith hit a cold spell at the end of August, going 0-for-14 over his final five games of the month, but has hit safely in all eight games he's played in September.

Known to have some good power, the 23-year-old put it on display in the middle of the season but has just one home run in his last 38 games.

Perhaps there is a power surge around the corner, although the former fifth-round draft pick has a 0.0% barrel rate during the hit streak, which does not bode well if you're banking on getting some home runs out of him during the fantasy playoffs.

(Update: Keith went 0-for-3 with a walk on Thursday, ending his hit streak)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 9/11

Spencer Horwitz (.563)

From August 10 until August 29, Spencer Horwitz went 11-for-60 (.183) with just one multi-hit game during that 19-game stretch.

In the 11 games since then, however, the 26-year-old has gone 16-for-37 (.432) with five multi-hit games. He's turned up the power output over the last week as well, collecting three doubles and three home runs.

Spencer Horwitz tied our single-game franchise rookie RECORD with 11 total bases! #TOTHECORE pic.twitter.com/pPfTmzG0Je

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 8, 2024

This is just the type of bat you're looking for during the fantasy baseball playoffs, and the former 24th-round draft pick is eligible at both 1B and 2B in Yahoo leagues with just a 38% rostership.

Eugenio Suarez (.522)

Eugenio Suarez has two four-hit performances in his last three games, which is certainly impressive, but he's been hot for much longer than that.

Before the All-Star break, the 33-year-old was slashing .216/.302/.366 with 10 home runs in 367 plate appearances, but since then, the veteran has slashed .324/.362/.686 with 18 home runs in just 207 plate appearances.

Eugenio Suárez needed a triple for the cycle

Instead he hit his 2nd HR of the day! pic.twitter.com/Hd22X2J9ga

— MLB (@MLB) September 11, 2024

He's helped the Diamondbacks' renaissance this season along with teammate Corbin Carroll's turnaround at the plate and has been a great play in DFS, but is still available in nearly one-fifth of Yahoo leagues, so scoop him up for the stretch run if you're one of the lucky ones who can.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 9/11

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Tommy Edman (.542)

After stashing Tommy Edman in an IL spot for most of the season, hopefully you were more patient than me when the 29-year-old was finally activated in mid-August.

The switch hitter went 6-for-29 (.207) over his first eight games with just one extra-base hit and one stolen base.

The former sixth-round draft pick has gone 18-for-51 (.353) in the 13 games since then, collecting multiple hits in seven of them with four home runs and four stolen bases mixed in.

First pitch swinging, first pitch crushing.

Tommy Edman's 3rd HR in the last 2 games. pic.twitter.com/o67CrrUwFZ

— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2024

It's the fantasy playoffs for many of us, can you use a guy that can hit a home run but also steal you a base? Someone that can be plugged into multiple positions (2B, SS, OF)? Someone who could be available in your league (available in nearly half of Yahoo leagues)? Edman is your guy.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data in the table includes games through 9/11

There are some familiar faces on this list, but also there is Romy Gonzalez, who made it due to a three-steal game earlier this week, but just seven on the season just before that. Then, you also have Dairon Blanco, who has stolen three bases without logging a single plate appearance.

If you look back further, he's actually stolen six bases in the last eight games in which he's made an appearance, even going on a bit of a power surge a couple weeks ago if you recall.

Need someone to push you over the top in the SB category but won't hurt your batting average? In leagues where you can make daily lineup changes, Blanco could be the guy to gamble on.

Dylan Crews (4)

It sure seems like Dylan Crews is ready for the big time, showing a nice blend of power and speed since his debut a couple weeks ago.

The 22-year-old is a multi-category producer already, and with the Nationals going nowhere this season, he should continue to see plenty of at-bats.

The former first-round draft pick has an 18.0% K% and a 9.8% BB%, both of which are better than the league average, so it seems like he could see an improvement on the .222 batting average he currently holds, which would in turn increase his OBP and improve his chances for more stolen bases.

The budding star can be had in over half of Yahoo leagues for managers interested in his services.

(Update: Crews went 2-for-4, raising his BA to .241, and had another stolen base on Thursday)

xBA Underachiever

Data through 9/11

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Starling Marte (.266 vs. .293)

Fantasy managers who held onto Starling Marte while he was injured have been disappointed since his return, as the veteran has gone 12-for-56 (.214) since coming off the IL in August without hitting a single home run during that stretch.

Part of his appeal is that he could also steal you a base, having swiped 12 bags prior to his injury, but the 35-year-old has stolen just three bases in the 16 games since being activated.

The two-time All-Star has also not been playing every day, further dampening his appeal for fantasy. While we're running out of time for him to turn it around, the good news is that his xBA is significantly higher than his actual batting average.

If he can start getting on base with more regularity, then more stolen bases should follow.

Honorable mention: Juan Soto (.289 vs. .321)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 9/11

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go cold right away. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Victor Robles (.290 vs. .251)

Once a highly rated prospect, Victor Robles has not lived up to expectations during his time in the majors, but perhaps he just needed a change of scenery.

Since joining the Mariners in June, Robles has slashed .313/.382/.456 with four home runs and a whopping 20 stolen bases in 63 games.

This is why the Seattle Mariners extended Victor Robles.

Not because he’s going to hit .350 AVG or have 25 HR, but because he brings a different type of energy and versatility to this lineup👀pic.twitter.com/zNNnoRuvOZ

— EastCoastM’s🔱 (@EastCoastMs_) August 28, 2024

With a BABIP of .354 compared to a career BABIP of .308, it appears that luck has been on his side. There could be regression coming, but he's still only 27 years old and this could be the season where he puts it all together, so maybe he can stave off regression for another season.

(Update: Robles went 3-for-3 with a walk and two more stolen bases Thursday)

Also: Jose Iglesias (.317 vs. .273)

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