Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

August 2, 2024

Rob's 2024 fantasy football team preview for the Detroit Lions. Read about fantasy football values, sleepers, rookies, and starters at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Detroit Lions as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

The Lions had one of the best offenses in the NFL last year, and that translated into fantasy football in a big way. Three players (Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta) finished in the top seven positions. Jared Goff was QB15, and fellow running back David Montgomery was RB8. This offense was filled with fantasy football value, and 2024 shouldn't be much different. Fantasy managers will be eager to see what former top pick Jameson Williams can do, now seemingly locked into Detroit's No. 2 receiver role. This is one of the strongest offenses in the league, top to bottom, and it's one fantasy managers should have a lot of interest in investing in.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Jared Goff: QB12, ADP 93

I’m going to be blunt about this… I have some concerns. Last year, Goff finished as the QB15 with a 17.6 PPG average. Russell Wilson finished ahead of him with a 17.7 PPG average. Baker Mayfield was right behind him at 17.4 PPG. This is despite Goff throwing 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns. How much better are we expecting him to be?

In 2022, Goff finished as the QB14 with a 17.6 PPG average. He was only QB14 despite throwing for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just seven touchdowns. Again, I’m going to ask, how much better are we expecting him to be? Last year, Goff finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback six times—37.5%. From 2022-2023, Goff has finished as a weekly top 12 quarterback 13 times. 39.5%. He’s finished between QB13 and QB24 15 times, or roughly 47%. Okay, I want you to remember those numbers because they will be very important in just a second. Goff finished as a QB1 37.5% of the time in 2023 and 39.5% since he became the Lions’ starter in 2022.

• Geno Smith: QB1 33% of the time in 2023 and 42% of the time from 2022-2023
• Baker Mayfield: QB1 44% of the time in 2023 (did not play with Tampa Bay in 2022)
• Deshaun Watson: QB1 50% of the time in 2023 (only six games) and 42% of the time from 2022-2023
• Trevor Lawrence: QB1 53% of the time in 2023 and 56% of the time from 2022-2023
• Justin Herbert: QB1 62% of the time in 2023 and 57% of the time from 2022-2023 (new coaching staff)
• Kirk Cousins: QB1 62% of the time in 2023 and 56% of the time from 2022-2023 (moved from Minnesota to Atlanta)
• Derek Carr: 41% of the time in 2023 with the Saints and 44% of the time from 2022-2023 (with the Raiders and Saints)

Based on Goff’s overall QB finish over the past two years and the numbers above, I think it’s safe to say we might be slightly over-drafting him. Without question, Lawrence should be drafted ahead of him. Jayden Daniels also belongs ahead of him just because of the upside he brings with his legs. We’ve seen Goff play out of his mind the past two seasons, but he hasn’t even finished in the top 13. Despite that, we’re drafting as a top-12 quarterback even though he finishes as a weekly top-12 quarterback at a below-average rate compared to many quarterbacks going behind him. I’m going to need someone to explain this to me.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Goff is a great real-life quarterback. He’s fantastic. He’s not elite, but he’s very, very good. As a fantasy quarterback, his ceiling seems to be that of an upper-tier QB2. Since 2022, there have been 32 quarterbacks throwing at least 500 passes. Goff ranks ninth in touchdown rate at 4.9%. Since Goff doesn’t run, his spike weeks and ceiling are tied to touchdowns. Goff is already performing very well in that department. Since 2022, he’s tied for third in most touchdown passes thrown with 59. Should we realistically expect him to perform even better than he already is?

Not to mention, his consistency in his two seasons in Detroit has been uncanny. 587 passes in 2022. 605 in 2023. 29 touchdowns in 2022. 30 in 2023. 4.9% touchdown rate in 2022. 5.0% in 2023. 4,438 yards in 2022. 4,575 in 2023. 7.6 yards per attempt in both seasons. Again, I’m going to ask, how much better are we expecting him to be? Because based on his positional ADP, we expect him to get better.

If there’s an argument for Goff getting better, it’s his schedule. In six outdoor games, including the playoffs, Goff averaged 13.6 PPG. He averaged 256 yards, 1.0 touchdowns, and 0.66 interceptions per game. In 14 dome games last year, Goff averaged 19.5 PPG. He averaged 277 yards, 2.0 touchdowns, and 0.57 interceptions per game. We see a similar split from the 2022 season.

In 11 dome games last year, Goff averaged 19.6 PPG. He averaged 271 yards, 2.2 touchdowns, and 0.54 interceptions per game. In six outdoor games, Goff averaged just 13.2 PPG. His per-game averages decreased to 244 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, and 0.16 interceptions. Goff and the Lions play three outdoor games for their 2024 schedule. However, it should be noted that two of them are in Week 16 and Week 17, smack dab in the fantasy playoffs.

19.5 PPG, his two-year dome average, would have ranked QB7 in 2022 and QB6 in 2023. I am generally hesitant to buy away and home splits just because they’re often small sample sizes and can be a bit fluky. However, this is two years’ worth of data, and the splits are significant. Also, the splits for 2022 and 2023 are extremely similar. They’re almost identical! It’s hard to ignore that.

I’d be lying if I didn’t say those splits aren’t incredibly enticing. Or the fact that Jameson Williams, a former top-15 pick who is having his first normal offseason of his career, is walking into the No. 2 receiver spot could be a real jolt to this offense. Despite that, I still can’t get over the numbers, so Goff is a sell. I think he’s going to be a great QB2. I think there’s a chance he finishes in that 11-13 range, but his current price requires fantasy managers to buy him at his ceiling, and I don’t want to do that.

Verdict: Slight Sell on Jared Goff

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Jahmyr Gibbs: RB6, ADP 13
David Montgomery: RB20, ADP 65

Gibbs is one of the most exciting running backs in fantasy football. He’s in that same Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara type of mold. He’s an explosive runner who can hit the home run and is very involved in the passing game. While there were some concerns about Gibbs’ ability to hold up in the NFL due to his weight and if he’d garner enough carries and scoring opportunities to be an elite fantasy option, those were quickly put to rest in his rookie season.

Gibbs and Montgomery both missed a few games early in the season. If we look at their first six healthy games together in 2024 and compare those to the five healthy games they played later in the season, fantasy managers can see somewhat of a changing of the guard in how these two backs were utilized on the ground.

From the table above, you can see that Monty's rushing attempts slightly decreased over our two sample sizes while Gibbs' increased. Indeed, more touches are better than less, but rushing attempts aren't the most important thing for fantasy football. We want rushing attempts with good scoring opportunities, and that's where the bigger change occurred. As you can see from the table above, Gibbs' percentage of the team carries inside the five-yard line increased. Monty still held the area, but Gibbs was also getting more chances.

The more significant change happened inside the 10-yard line, where the two players flip-flopped. Monty had been utilized on 55% of the carries in the 10-yard in our first six-game sample, but in our final five-game sample, he had just 43.8% of those touches. Meanwhile, Gibbs' percentages increased from 40% to 50%, where he got more of the carries inside the 10-yard line. For Gibbs, that's huge!

Lions red-zone carries in their final 12 games of regular + post season

David Montgomery – 36 carries (8 TDs)
Jahmyr Gibbs – 35 (10 TDs)

Montgomery had more goal-line inside 5 carries (19 to 10), but Gibbs was trending up with RZ work to close out the year@FantasyPtsData

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) May 8, 2024

Not surprisingly, Gibbs also had a commanding lead over Monty in their past involvement. Gibbs finished ninth among running backs with a 13.1% target share. He was seventh with 70 targets, while Montgomery finished with just 22, ranking 50th. Gibbs also finished ninth in receptions (52) and 16th in receiving yards (316). Based on his volume, his overall receiving yardage was slightly disappointing. Among 48 running backs who received at least 25 targets, Gibbs finished 29th in yards per route run at 1.07. His 4.51 yards per target ranked 41st, and his 6.08 yards per reception ranked 37th.

Much of that can be attributed to Gibbs' yards after the catch per reception average of just 6.31, which ranked 40th among running backs. In this statistic, he was sandwiched between Javonte Williams and Najee Harris. One of the areas fantasy managers should expect him to clean up is the amount of drops he had. Gibbs finished with eight drops. Only Jerome Ford had more. Gibbs' 11.4% drop rate was the fifth-highest in our 48 running back sample size.

While those numbers aren't especially good, they shouldn't give fantasy managers much pause. Gibbs showed an elite ability to earn targets, and he has ample opportunity in the passing game, with little reason to expect that to change. He finished sixth in route participation rate at 52.3% and finished with 296 total routes, which ranked 10th. There's a strong argument to be made that Gibbs' role in the passing game from year one to year two will increase. In 2021, during D'Andre Swift's second season with Detroit and Dan Campbell's first season as their head coach, his route participation rate was 66%, and he ran 296 routes in just 13 games.

Over the past two seasons, Detroit has scored 109 offensive touchdowns, 59 of which have come via the pass, or roughly 54.1%. The league average is roughly around 60%. However, Detroit's splits between passing and rushing touchdowns have remained consistent for two years, indicating we shouldn't expect much change. Last year, inside the 10-yard line last year, Detroit ran the ball at a 58.8% rate, the eighth-highest in football.

If we move that out to 20 yards, Detroit's 55.8% rush rate ranked fourth. Given Detroit's strong offensive line, widely viewed as the best in the NFL, the Lions' offense has utilized their rushing attack at a high rate once they get close to the end zone. That's great news for Monty and Gibbs.

Gibbs is an ascending player who will likely see his role in the passing game increase in year two. Not only that, but we should expect the rushing splits to become closer. That has Gibbs moving up. He finished at the RB7 last season with a 14.8 half-PPR PPG average. Monty was right behind him at 14.6 half-PPR PPG. However, in the 14 games where both players were healthy, Gibbs' half-PPR PPG average was 14.1, and Montgomery's was 12.9. If we look at the final eight games of the sample, Gibbs' half-PPR PPG average increases to 15.3, and Monty's decreases even further to 11.7. Last year, an 11.7 half-PPR PPG average would have finished RB23.

These two running backs, in many facets, are moving in different directions in their career. Monty is getting older and further from his prime. Gibbs is getting better and inching closer to his prime. Regarding how the organization utilizes them, we saw Gibbs' role grow late in the year while Monty's decreased slightly. It's only natural that they continue moving in the way they were last season. Therefore, fantasy managers should buy Gibbs at his current price but sell Montgomery. Players such as Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, and James Conner are all likely to have more touches than Monty and are all being drafted after him.

Verdict: Buy Jahmyr Gibbs and Sell David Montgomery

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Amon-Ra St. Brown: WR5, ADP 8
Jameson Williams: WR49, ADP 111

We will kick this off with Williams since we know ARSB is an absolute stud. Should fantasy managers have given up on Williams? Absolutely not. However, this is probably his last chance. Williams played just six games as a rookie due to a late ACL tear in the college football playoffs. Then, in his second season, Williams was suspended for gambling and missed six games. That was his fault, but it still can harm his on-the-field performance, especially since the Lions were in win-now mode and couldn't wait for Williams to get his feet wet once the suspension ended.

Still, we must remember the Lions traded up in the first round back in the 2022 NFL Draft and selected him 12th overall. They were very high on him, and it appears they have not yet given up on him. This offseason, the team elected to let Josh Reynolds leave. He had 64 targets, 40 receptions, 608 yards, and five touchdowns. He also played 70.6% of the snaps last year, almost double that of Williams at 37.7%. With Reynolds no longer on the roster and Detroit adding no other receivers, Williams, who played the third-most snaps at receiver last year for the Lions, seems to finally be in a position where he will be the clear-cut No. 2 receiver this season. That's exciting!

This offense finished with 606 pass attempts (ninth most), 4,401 passing yards (second most), and 30 passing touchdowns (fourth most). While we cannot expect Williams to become the No. 1 or No. 2 target earner in Detroit, not with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, the team's elite volume and efficiency still allows Williams to carve out a big enough role to be fantasy-relevant.

Williams' route participation rate last season was just 53%, while Reynolds' was 75%. It shouldn't be surprising to see Williams' route participation rate approach at least 80% this upcoming season. On 605 pass attempts, Williams would have around 485 routes run, a significant increase from the 236 routes he ran last season. That increased opportunity will surely lead to more targets, receptions, and yards. While Williams' stats in the NFL have thus far been disappointing, he's never had an ideal offseason or a prominent role in the offense. This year, he'll get both.

Unfortunately, there aren't many stats from the 2022 or 2023 seasons that we can point at and say, "See, this is why we should be betting on Williams." Betting on Williams is based almost entirely on what the Lions front office and coaching staff tell us. They were so sold on Williams in the 2022 NFL Draft that they traded the No. 32, No. 34, and No. 66 picks to the Vikings for picks No. 12 and No. 46 to select Williams.

While his first two seasons haven't gone the way Williams or Detroit have envisioned, there are clear and understandable reasons why. First, the torn ACL, and second, the gambling suspension. The Lions are telling us they're comfortable putting Williams on the field full-time this upcoming season. Since Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell arrived in Detroit, everything they have done has worked marvelously. This season, they're fully determined to play Williams, who had 79 receptions, 1,572 yards, and 15 touchdowns in his final year in college on the field full-time. Their confidence is encouraging.

That doesn't paint a fuzzy feeling for fantasy managers looking to invest. There's a lot of red on that chart, which is admittedly not the best way to use Reception Perception's charts. In his 2023 Reception Perception profile, Matt Harmon had this to say about Williams,

"Williams’ overall success rate vs. coverage metrics are not good. There is simply no way of getting around that. He came in under the 15th percentile in success rate vs. man, zone and press coverage. That’s not encouraging. All that said, I’m prepared to take a few extra steps with this profile and do things I don’t always love doing to add further context. Again, Williams’ career has been so unusual, he probably deserves those extra layers. The first three games I sampled for Williams (Week 11 to Week 13) provided unspeakably poor results. We’re talking success rates that would make the 15th percentile look good. The tide began to turn just a bit once games from Week 15 on through the NFC Championship were added to the sample. Not only did it look like the Lions were finally comfortable enough with him to begin varying up his assignments and loading more onto his plate, he improved with the time on the field. Again, I don’t love doing this at all but if you drop those first three nightmare games from the sample and just include games from Week 15 on, Williams checks in with a 67.3% success rate vs. man, 84.8% success rate vs. zone and 64.7% success rate vs. press. Those results are still a bit of a mixed bag but they’re far more encouraging and you can tell yourself a story that they’re the more instructive portion of the sample."

It shouldn't be surprising that Williams got better with time and opportunity. Injuries, suspensions, and a lack of on-field time have marred his first two seasons in the league. Those barriers no longer exist, and while Detroit certainly would have liked for him to have developed earlier, we began to see it late last season. We'll use the sample size created by Reception Perception, which would be Weeks 5-14 and then Weeks 15 through their loss in the Conference Championship game.

While Williams' stats after Week 15 still don't look like a fantasy-relevant player, they're certainly moving in the right direction. Given his first two years in the league, fantasy managers should be willing to give him another chance, especially considering his draft pedigree and talent. From Weeks 15 through the Conference Championship game, Reynolds still had a route participation of 73.2% and a target share of 11.5%, so there's room yet for Williams to grow.

Since St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs will gobble up so much of the underneath and intermediate work, Williams may become a boom-or-bust weekly commodity. His average target depth post Week 15 was 15.0, which is high. Those targets tend to be more difficult to complete and increase the volatility. They can also increase the upside for spike weeks.

45 quarterbacks attempted at least 125 passes last season. Goff ranked 44th in deep throw percentage and 38th in average target depth. Maybe Goff didn't have someone who could win downfield, or maybe Goff and the Detroit offense are more designed to take the easier targets. If that doesn't change, it will negatively impact Williams' opportunity.

There are positives and negatives with Williams, as we've previously discussed. Goff's insistence not to throw deep and the talented trio of ARSB, LaPorta, and Gibbs could make it difficult for Williams to earn regular volume to be productive. However, his increased role and talent could also be enough for the offense to figure out how to incorporate him more. Given the questions surrounding Williams, his price is a fair one.

That brings us to ARSB. This one will be short and sweet because everyone under the Sun (get it?) knows how good he is, but let's check out some of his stats last season and where he ranked among 81 receivers with at least 50 targets. This should be all that anyone needs to see on ARSB.

• 12th in route share (87.9%, and he played through multiple injuries, so keep that in mind)
• 161 targets (fifth)
• 27.9% target share (sixth)
• 30.0% target per route run (fifth)
• 119 receptions (second)
• 73.9% catch rate (fifth)
• 1,515 yards (third)
• 94.7 yards per game (fifth)
• 34.7% team market share yards (eighth)
• 2.81 yards per route run (eighth)
• 9.41 yards per target (26th)
• 5.69 yards after the catch per reception (16th)
• 34.9% first read rate (ninth)
• 0.139 first down per route run rate (fourth)
• 33 red zone targets (ninth)
• 17.0 half-PPR PPG average (fourth)
• Top-12 Receiver in 62% of his games in 2023
• Top-24 Receiver in 25% of his games in 2023
• Scored over 20 half-PPR points in six games
• Scored over 14 half-PPR points in 12 games

As you can see from the numbers above, he's really good. We've previously discussed Detroit's schedule, and if that helps raise ARSB's ceiling even more, he has the potential to finish as a top-three receiver, and it's certainly possible he could finish as the No. 1 overall receiver. He's a buy all day long.

Verdict: Buy Amon-Ra St. Brown and Fair Price on Jameson Williams

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Sam LaPorta: TE1, ADP 27

Ladies and gentlemen, we are jumping the boat here. I’m not saying LaPorta can’t finish as the TE1, but his ADP is outrageous. He’s being drafted 21 spots, almost two full rounds, ahead of Mark Andrews. Even though LaPorta finished with an 11.6 half-PPR PPG average, Andrews finished at 11.3. If we eliminate the game Andrews left early when he played just 11% of the snaps, Andrews's half-PPR PPG average jumps to 12.2. What are we doing here?

LaPorta didn’t finish in the top three among tight ends in targets, receptions, or yards. He did, however, finish with 10 touchdowns, four more than any other tight end. That’s how he finished as the TE1 last season. This leaves fantasy managers putting a lot of draft value in the touchdown bucket, which is often a dangerous proposition.

LaPorta finished tied for third in red zone targets with 24 and was tied for fifth in end zone targets with seven. In terms of expected touchdowns, PFF had him ranked fourth with 6.8. There’s no real way around it. He ran hot on touchdowns. He was fourth in targets, third in red zone targets, fifth in end zone targets, and fourth in expected touchdowns, but still finished first with 66% more touchdowns than second place.

Even more concerning for LaPorta’s ADP is that from Weeks 1-17, LaPorta finished as the TE5 with a 10.2 expected half-PPR PPG average. He was tied with Mark Andrews, whose expected PPG average would increase if we eliminated his injury week, where he played just 11% of the snaps, moving LaPorta down to TE6. LaPorta averaged 7.06, 5.06, and 52.3 yards per game last year. From 2021-2023, Andrews has averaged 7.78 targets, 5.35 receptions, and 65.5 yards per game.

While his positional ranking isn’t outrageous, his ADP is. He’s being selected ahead of Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, James Cook, and every quarterback not named Josh Allen. Last year, Evans averaged 15.0 half-PPR PPG, White was 14.0, Pacheco was 13.7, and James Cook was 12.8. LaPorta was at 11.6. Bypassing on legit top 12 running backs like White and Pacheco, who are sure to outscore LaPorta, is certainly a choice, especially when you can wait two rounds and get Andrews, who outscored LaPorta in terms of PPG average.

Even ranking LaPorta ahead of Travis Kelce is highly questionable. Kelce averaged more targets, receptions, yards, red zone, and end zone targets per game than LaPorta. However, Kelce finished with just five touchdowns to LaPorta’s 10. If we do a little digging, we find that Kelce had 12 touchdowns in 2022, nine in 2021, and 11 in 2020. From 2020-2022, his touchdown rate was 7.4%. LaPorta’s was 8.3%. In 2023, Kelce’s touchdown rate dropped to 4.1%. What do you expect to happen in 2024?

LaPorta was fantastic as a rookie and will likely continue to improve. Based on his ADP, he would get much better if fantasy managers didn’t want to be disappointed at his current cost. Last year, 23 tight ends had at least 50 targets. LaPorta ranked:

• Ninth in yards per reception (10.3)
• 11th in catch percentage (71.7)
• Ninth in yards per target (7.4)
• Seventh in yards per game (52.3)
• 16th in yards after the catch per reception (4.2)

He also finished sixth in yards per route run at 1.78 and target share at 21.1%. None of these numbers are bad. Most of them are incredible for a rookie tight end. Don’t get this twisted. This is not a hit piece on LaPorta. LaPorta is amazing. This is a hit piece on the price. If you’re house shopping and you find two houses you like. You slightly prefer house A over house B, but house A is $20,000 more expensive; which house will you offer? Unless you're rich and money is irrelevant, you’re most likely placing an offer on house B. That’s the problem with LaPorta. He’s overpriced.

Who you rank as the TE1 becomes a lot less important once you realize the best strategy this year is to let someone else draft the first tight end

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) July 3, 2024

I can see a world where Kelce, Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, and Kyle Pitts all finish ahead of LaPorta. Is it likely? Probably not, but it’s more likely than you might think. Pitts is available 30 spots after LaPorta. Pitts had more yards than LaPorta had as a rookie, and he wasn’t in a top-five offense like LaPorta was. The difference? Touchdowns. Pitts had one, and LaPorta had 10. Well, now Pitts has Cousins. Could Pitts go up to 6-8 touchdowns? Absolutely! Could LaPorta go down to 6-8 touchdowns? Yup!

Verdict: Sell Sam LaPorta

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