DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Travelers Championship With Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, J.T. Poston, Justin Rose and More Golf Advice (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Travelers Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Travelers Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 72
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 18

Last Five Winners of the Travelers Championship

Expected Cut-Line At The Travelers

***No cut this year

TPC River Highlands

6,852 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bent/Poa

While I may be in the minority, it's hard to ignore the unique challenge of scheduling an elevated event, a major championship, and another elevated event in three consecutive weeks.

I don't even have a problem with the onslaught of golf during the peak portion of the year because now is the time to attack when most sports are nearing an end or haven't started. However, something feels extremely lackluster to me when faced with the letdown of one of the best major championship contests in quite some time. If that doesn't say that these limited-field, no-cut tournaments aren't holding anyone's attention, I don't know what will.

TPC River Highlands has yielded relatively consistent rollover success rates between seasons when we look at different iterations of the board. I am not 100% sure if this season will produce the same answer since there was a 2023 renovation done to the property after Keegan Bradley's emphatic 23-under-par victory, but I am still approaching the track under a similar mindset, even if I am making a few minor tweaks to try and better craft the model to fit the changes.

TPC River Highlands was initially built in 1928 by Robert Ross but was re-designed twice in the 1980s by Pete Dye and Bobby Weed. The Dye and TPC narratives are always interesting to handicap because of the rollover production they present from a statistical perspective. That is something that we see with the track ranking inside the top 10 in terms of predictability when running it against all other courses that will be used in action in 2024.

On the surface, the 6,852-yard measurement and smaller-than-average greens would tell a story of short-game prowess and mid-iron play coming to the forefront of the discussion. While some of that will be important when traversing through the data, the off-the-tee metrics actually take center stage in the increase they receive from a regular stop since we see the dispersion of scoring ramp up from 15.3% to 18.1%.

Golfers with length and accuracy off the tee will find themselves with extremely short totals into these greens, although even if you are distance-declined on the scale, you can take advantage of the course if your mid-iron statistics pop over the four rounds since that original discussion of heightened mid-iron proximity totals will be noteworthy when we dive into 7.1% more shots occurring from 125-175 yards.

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Recent Weighted SG: T2G (Geared Toward TPC River Highlands) (5%)

Strokes Gained: Total Pete Dye + TPC (15%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total Similar Greens + Fairways + Rough (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Expected Total Driving + Primary Proximity Zones (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

(Not a negative value over five spots off, including upside totals) - Looking at only top 30 this week

*** All the data in the sections above included Rory McIlroy before his withdrawal.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

We have seen a substantial shift in golf recently, with Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and Collin Morikawa taking a massive upswing inside of my model's projected win equity weekly. Those five might not win every title, but the consistency we are getting from the group has been pronounced.

You won't go wrong with any decision you make, but as has been the case for most of 2024, my favorite play will be Xander Schauffle.

Schauffele managed to surpass Scheffler for this week's model because of how much closer the two got in my two-year running for strokes gained. While Scheffler still holds an advantage, Xander's first-place rank for the weighted portion of that category this week for TPC River Highlands told a prominent story in my sheet.

Here is where the top of the board stands for my two-year running data.

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I am expecting Collin Morikawa to be the chalk of all chalk. We will see where ownership lands between options like him, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland, but Morikawa's recent turnaround with his short game and increase closer to the norm with his irons do have him primed and ready for more success.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Brian Harman has generated four top-eight finishes at the track over the last five years.

Those results pop front and center with his fourth-place rank for Strokes Gained Total when combining TPC properties and Pete Dye tracks. Add that to his sixth-place grade for 'Par-Four Scoring' from 400-450 Yards (an area with eight holes), and you get a blueprint for his success.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

I am going to include both J.T. Poston and Wyndham Clark in this section since each golfer made my outright betting card. The Poston play will deliver much more safety than what we are getting from Clark, but the market has overcorrected itself to Clark's recent form.

The struggles are real throughout different portions of his game, but I thought the American flashed some life at the U.S. Open and will go wildly under-owned in what is now a 71-man field. That is the kind of upside I like taking a shot on weekly.

On the other hand, Poston delivered one of the more surprising statistical compilations this week. My model ranked him inside the top 10 of this field for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, Strokes Gained Total Short Courses, Strokes Gained Total Pete Dye + TPC, and Strokes Gained Total Similar Greens + Fairways + Rough Data.

Those numbers helped him to land as one of only 11 players to crack the top 30 of all seven categories I ran, including being the only option below $8,400 to carry that answer. As of this moment, he is my favorite value option on the slate. 

$6,000 Options to Consider

The results look a lot worse than the current form for Justin Rose.

Back-to-back missed cuts will only tell part of the story when you realize the Memorial was undone by a poor Thursday, while the U.S. Open saw him miss the cut by one but grade as a top 50 projected scorer for the two rounds when using his two-year baseline short-game metrics.

Rose's top-25 projection for Expected Total Driving + Primary Proximity Zones makes him one of the top targets on this board when looking for value.

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Xander Schauffele
$9,000+ - Collin Morikawa
$8,000+ - Brian Harman
$7,000+ - J.T. Poston (Wyndham Clark honorary mention if you want a total GPP flier)
$6,000+ - Justin Rose

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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