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We have tons of access to baseball data in our fantasy analysis. Sometimes, we might have too many tools and resources because it can be overwhelming, especially in the beginning stages. One of those resources is Baseball Savant better known as Statcast data. The social media joke involves the red and blue sliders on a player's page, giving us a visual representation and percentile rank for that player.
However, context matters when we're looking at a player, statistic, or multiple sources. For instance, exit velocity alone is fun, but we want to understand the launch angle while filtering out for different circumstances. Following up on exit velocity, barrels, and other contact quality metrics, we should consider plate discipline and when the hitter pulls the ball. Eventually, one might say we're overanalyzing a player, but we should allow the data to tell the story instead of fitting the metrics into our narrative.
That's part of my process in analyzing exit velocity for the Statcast review column. We'll cover a new Statcast metric and exit velocity on flyballs and line drives, which tends to be a valuable statistic in evaluating power. Let's look at two exit velocity metrics on Statcast and highlight players that stand out under each category.
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Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) - A New Statcast Metric
There's a new exit velocity metric on Baseball Savant called EV50, which accounts for the average of the hardest 50 percent of a player's batted ball events. It's similar to combining solid contact (95 to 100 mph) and barrels into an average.
Instead of using all batted ball events, EV50 gives us half of the hardest-hit balls for a given player. Sometimes, it's helpful to use EV50 in context for a hitter. The league average for EV50 sat at 99.8 mph among hitters with 100 batted ball events, so the visual below shows the hitters with an EV50 of 100 mph or higher.
Many well-known hitters ranking highly in other exit velocity metrics sit atop the EV50 leaderboard. Notables include Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Jake Burger, Michael Harris II, and many more. Harris is an interesting example because he hits the ball hard, but the launch angle remains a concern, with a career groundball rate of 51.1 percent.
With many groundballs, Harris is one of three hitters with an EV50 inside the top 25 hitters, yet barrels per plate appearance rate below eight percent. Yandy Diaz and Willson Contreras join Harris on that list but may show inconsistencies in their launch angle, which we know with Dîaz.
Continuing with that pattern of finding hitters with lower barrel rates but a quality EV50, we can look at players in the middle of the pack. A few notables include James Outman, Daulton Varsho, Trey Mancini, Trevor Story, and Alek Thomas. We can give Story a pass because of the injury while Outman, Varsho, and Thomas might be the most fantasy-relevant in 2024.
Notable Hitters in EV50
With Varsho, he attempted to sell out for power and hit too many flyballs. His flyball rate went from 44.3 percent (2022) to 47.2 percent (2023). It caused his barrels per plate appearance to fall 1.8 percentage points to five percent in 2023.
Back to EV50, Varsho posted 99.9 mph in 2023, up from 99.2 in 2022, so that's a good marker to know he still hits the ball hard. We see the trend in the rolling graphs, mainly in 2023 with an inverse relationship of flyballs and hard-hit data. Though the FanGraphs hard-hit data differs from Statcast, it still gives us a glimpse of the challenges in 2023 for Varsho.
After Outman hit 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, 156 runs plus RBI, and a .248 batting average, some expect him to smash in 2024. We only have one season of data, so it's a mixed bag. Outman's power skills hover around the league average, with a six percent barrels per plate appearance and 91.8 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD), ranking 198th.
Outman showed a patient approach with a 28.1 percent chase rate but only made contact in the zone 78.4 percent of the time, seven percentage points below the league average. Poor contact rates, heavy luck factors (BABIP), and league average exit velocities suggest regression in batting average, given his .218 xBA. That works if a hitter demolishes the ball like Kyle Schwarber or Cal Raleigh, and Outman doesn't appear to have those power skill levels.
Exit Velocity on Flyballs and Line Drives (EV on FB/LD)
We typically want to avoid average exit velocity on its own and look at the hitter context of the launch angle. Many of the best power hitters have high EVs on FB/LD while barreling up the ball. The visual below shows the league averages on flyballs and line drives, including results and exit velocity metrics.
Over the past few seasons, we've seen hitters gradually hit the ball harder on flyballs and line drives, with the launch angle increasing about one degree. Knowing the league average data, we want hitters that post an EV on FB/LD at 95 mph or higher. Interestingly, the home run per barrel rate declined as the exit velocity data improved. However, we've heard speculation about changes to the baseballs, causing the power output to fall in recent years.
Notable Hitters in EV on FB/LD
Matt Wallner's name came up often in the off-season due to juicy exit velocity metrics. Wallner had the 17th-best EV on FB/LD at 97.1 mph tied with Corey Seager and Bryce Harper. Some of Wallner's struggles look similar to Outman's in plate discipline with the patience of a 28.7 percent chase rate and 72.7 percent zone contact rate. However, Wallner's 9.8 percent barrels per plate appearance (No. 18) further supports the elite power skills.
Gabriel Arias is interesting because playing time is questionable for him. However, when we sort by 100 batted ball events, Arias comes in at No. 27 in EV on FB/LD at 96.3 mph between Joc Pederson and William Contreras. As expected, Arias has plate discipline concerns using an aggressive approach with a 37.9 percent chase rate and 55.1 percent swing rate, about 6-7 points above the league norm. Though Arias might not be relevant in most leagues, keep tabs on his playing time because his athleticism shows up in his defense, giving him a path for plate appearances due to injuries.
The prospect pedigree for Riley Greene continues to make drafters interested in his profile. Greene boasts a 96.1 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 37) tied with Jorge Soler. However, Greene has launch angle issues, as one of five hitters with an EV on FB/LD at 96 mph or higher with a launch angle of seven degrees or below. That list includes Greene, Juan Soto, Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Jesús Sánchez. When a hitter like Greene hits tons of grounders (48.9 percent), we want them to crush the ball when they elevate it. Greene does that, meaning he could reach 20+ home runs over a full season.
Maikel Garcia is another sneaky hitter with power skills, though it doesn't look that way if we examine his four home runs and 23 stolen bases in 2023. Garcia's 2.7 percent barrels per plate appearance may not stand out. However, Garcia's 95.5 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 64) put him ahead of Brent Rooker, Ryan Jeffers, and Daniel Vogelbach.
That indicates Garcia might fall into the bucket of Greene and Yelich, where he can punish the ball when he elevates it. Unsurprisingly, Garcia's 48 percent groundball rate impacts whether he consistently elevates. It seems easier said than done to fix his launch angle, but it's better to lean into the average to slightly above-average power skills, causing the output to align.
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