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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 13 (11/25/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
This is the one week aside from Labor Day weekend that college football gets crazy with the number of games on Friday and Saturday. The lines are still moving like crazy and I'm trying my best to follow them! We have 13 games going on today. Virginia and Virginia Tech have agreed to cancel their annual rivalry game after what happened in Charlottesville a couple of weeks ago.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. I've made the most on Stanford and Iowa State. Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Washington, and Northwestern have hurt me the most, for what it's worth.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 13 (11/25)
(19)Tulane at (24)Cincinnati(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place and has been since it opened at -3.5 for the Bearcats. Tulane is carrying more juice at the 1.5, which makes me think I'm on the right side of this one. I trust the Tulane defense more than Cincinnati. I probably trust the offense more as well. I'm riding the Wave again!
Baylor at (23)Texas(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...this feels a little high. Baylor is finally getting their receivers healthy and the defense has been better than advertised most of the season. Then again, the Bears got creamed by a Kansas State team that had just lost to Texas. Why? Because they could run the ball. Well, hello Bijan Robinson. How are you today? Give me Texas.
Utah State at Boise State(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Say what? Boise's run defense is average at best and Calvin Tyler is a strong back. This is too many. Give me the Aggies!
Central Michigan(-1.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hell, I don't know. I've lost 30 points on the Eagles this year for that reason. The seemingly erratic quarterback switches and the fact that the Eagles are road warriors but struggle at home are irrational issues that don't make sense. Vegas knows that, which is why the line is here and why the Eagles are getting almost no juice and lots of action. I'm not falling for it. Give me Central.
Toledo(-7.5) at Western Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened at -14.5. What has changed? Vegas must think Dequan Finn is playing, which would make a huge difference. A touchdown though? Tucker Gleason played well for the Rockets last week. I really don't like that half. Give me Western. Both of these defenses are better than you think.
Arizona State at Arizona(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I like the over 65.5 better than the spread. Points are going to be easy to come by in this game. Both teams are staying home instead of going to a bowl, so this is for in-state bragging rights only. Honestly, that's all that is really needed. Arizona looks like the better team. ASU knocked off Washington, but Arizona's wins aside from the Colorado gimme are legit; North Dakota State, San Diego State (in the opening game of their new palace, no less), and UCLA. I have to go with Arizona.
North Carolina State at (17)North Carolina(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That ugly loss to the Wreck is still fresh in my mind. Even if Josh Downs catches that pass and the Heels win, I'm still feeling this way. There's a ton of juice on the Pack, which means Vegas is baiting people to bet on them. Can Drake Maye really be that bad two weeks in a row? I'm not convinced that he can. Give me the Tarheels.
Arkansas(-3.5) at Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arkansas has only won two of eight Battle Line games since Missouri joined the SEC back in 2014. However, one of those wins was last year with K.J. Jefferson. The Missouri defense has been very good and the offense is neither good nor bad. Can the Missouri defense stop Jefferson when they couldn't last year? Probably not. Give me the Piggies.
New Mexico at Colorado State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't really like the half, but with the way the Colorado State defense has played all year, I can't fault it. It's just going to cause my bet to be a touch lower, considering the Rams haven't won a game by more than four points all season. Give me the Rams.
Nebraska at Iowa(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high, especially since the line opened at -3. What has caused the touchdown jump? Money on Iowa. The convincing win over a Wisconsin team that just beat Nebraska last week likely has a lot to do with that. So does Nebraska's failure to win the Heroes Trophy since 2014. That said, this game has been decided by a touchdown or less for four straight years. Let's make it five. Give me Nebraska.
(18)UCLA(-10.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon is the only team that has beaten Cal in Berkeley by more than a touchdown. This line feels a touch high, especially with what we've seen from the UCLA defense in recent weeks. I'm taking Cal.
Florida at (16)Florida State(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
On paper, this looks like a laugher. FSU is by far the better team and most of the time has played like it. Florida has tumbled since beating Utah in the Swamp in the opener, but they did beat the South Carolina team that just toppled Tennessee. The difference is that I trust the consistency of Jordan Travis. Give me FSU.
Wyoming at Fresno State(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
All of Wyoming's losses by more than a touchdown happened by Week 5. This feels a little bit high because of how Wyoming controls the ball, but I just don't trust them. Give me Fresno, but I'm leaving this alone.
I didn't go really heavy on anything on this slate, but I do like a small parlay of Colorado State, Utah State, and the over in the Territorial Cup.
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